Certain players are deemed as "safe" draft picks. Fantasy analysts highlight how players are being drafted near their floor or how a particular player is a surefire bet to beat their ADP. In reality, every pick involves some sort of risk. Players can fail to pay off at cost for a variety of reasons.
The biggest risk associated with each revolves around injury. Players constantly have their seasons derailed by injuries that keep them off the field or prevent them from performing at their best while on the field.
Outside of the injury bug, players can simply produce at a lower level than drafters anticipated on Draft Day. Anyone who invested in the Falcons' offense in recent years knows this feeling all too well. No matter how talented a player may be, external factors may hold them back from scoring fantasy points.
DOMINATE YOUR DRAFT: 2024 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet
But risk isn't necessarily a bad thing. Leaning into uncertainty and selecting players that others may be hesitant to draft can pay off in a big way. Miami Dolphin running backs were the perfect example of this. Nobody knew how this backfield would shake out, so all three options were pushed down into the middle and late rounds of drafts. Embracing the unknown paid off tremendously in this case.
For one reason or another, these six players are arguably the riskiest players in fantasy drafts this season. This doesn't necessarily mean they should be avoided, but drafters should keep the risk in the back of their minds.
2024 PPR RANKINGS
Top 250 Overall | QB | RB | WR | TE | DEF/ST | K
Fantasy Football Boom-or-Bust Team 2024: The riskiest picks at each position
Risk vs. Reward: Quarterback
Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts (ADP: QB6): In just four NFL games last season, Anthony Richardson proved that he can make waves across the fantasy football landscape. He truly put fantasy managers on notice thanks to his rushing production. He played in two full games and hit paydirt in both of them. He also cleared 20 fantasy points with ease in both contests.
The ceiling with Richardson is clear. He led all quarterbacks in fantasy points per dropback last season, proving he can produce fantasy points in droves. A QB1 season for Richardson is undoubtedly within the range of outcomes. His athletic prowess, the weapons around him, and Shane Steichen's high-paced offense make Richardson capable of producing fantasy fireworks.
Failing to live up to his QB6 cost is also well within the realm of possibilities. The first concern revolves around his health. Richardson's play style is aggressive and even reckless at times. As a result, he left two games early last season. This was out of four total games. His season also ended early due to a shoulder injury that required surgery. If Richardson doesn't reign it in and protect his body, he could be a mainstay in the trainer's room once again.
The other concern is that we really don't know how Richardson will perform across a full season. Sure, Richardson showcased his ceiling as a rookie, but can he sustain these kinds of performances across a full season? It's hard to say considering he has played a shade over 10 quarters of NFL football.
2024 FANTASY SLEEPERS
QB | RB | WR | TE | Each Team
Risk vs. Reward: Running back
De'Von Achane, Miami Dolphins (ADP: RB11): Like Anthony Richardson, De'Von Achane showed an astronomical ceiling as a rookie. His weekly ceiling is as high as any player in fantasy. Achane put up a ridiculous 51.3 points in his second career game.
Along with this 50-point explosion, Achane also had arguably the most efficient running back season of all time. In fact, his 7.8 yards per carry is the highest mark for any player with at least 100 carries in a season.
Achane fits like a glove in Mike McDaniel's offense, and he has the potential to be the second coming of Chris "CJ2K" Johnson. But there are two factors that could leave drafters frustrated after taking Achane in the second or third round.
It may be annoying to hear, but Raheem Mostert is going to maintain a role in this offense. He received an extension this offseason and McDaniel has continued to indicate that he will play a meaningful role all summer long. Jaylen Wright also enters the fray in 2024 and has proven that he is talented enough to siphon some touches. This three-headed monster is incredible for Dolphins fans but may frustrate those who draft Achane.
The other big risk is Achane's health. He is rather small for an NFL running back, weighing in at just 175 pounds. As a result, he is highly susceptible to injury. Achane suffered knee and shoulder injuries last season, leading to him appearing in just 11 games. If he misses extended time once again, it will be difficult for him to finish as an RB1.
2024 Standard, Non-PPR Rankings
Top 250 Overall | QB | RB | WR | TE | D/ST | K
Zamir White, Las Vegas Raiders (ADP: RB23): The range of outcomes for Zamir White in 2024 is absolutely enormous. This is typically the case for players who are volume-based bets like White.
The high-end outcome for White involves him dominating first and second down opportunities and compiling a high number of touches. Given the lack of competition and head coach Antonio Pierce's philosophy on running backs, this is entirely possible.
Antonio Pierce is one of the few head coaches who still champions the bell cow back. In 17 games last season, the Raiders RB1 (either Josh Jacobs or White) played at least 70 percent of snaps in 14 contests. In his four starts, White hit a 70-percent snap share three times. As a result, both Jacobs and White saw an enormous workload in the starting role. Volume is the greatest predictor of fantasy success, so White could be a tremendous fantasy asset if he controls the backfield opportunities in Las Vegas.
The biggest question is whether he is talented enough to hold onto a bell cow role across the whole year. He looked solid in the starting role last year, but he doesn't exactly pop off the screen as a talent. The sample size (four starts) is also not large enough to conclude whether White is legitimately a starting-caliber running back. If he struggles early in the year, he could get replaced rather easily.
2024 FANTASY AUCTION VALUES (PPR & STANDARD)
Overall | QB | RB | WR | TE | DEF/ST | K
Risk vs. Reward: Wide receiver
George Pickens, Pittsburgh Steelers (ADP: WR27): George Pickens has been a boom-or-bust player throughout the entirety of his career. Last season, Pickens' game log featured seven games of fewer than 7.0 points and four games of more than 20.0 points. It truly was feast or famine with Pickens.
Pickens has the ability to smash thanks to the departure of Diontae Johnson, who is now with the Panthers. In four games without Johnson last year, Pickens looked like an alpha receiver.
George Pickens without Diontae Johnson last year (four games):
— John Daigle (@notJDaigle) March 12, 2024
* 28.6% target share
* 3.0 Yards Per Route Run
* 16.6 fantasy PPG (WR16) despite fighting through a 68.8% (80th) catchable pass rate https://t.co/F8mxulDf1M
The issue is that Pickens is entering his first year in an offense controlled by none other than Arthur Smith. In the three years that Smith was the head coach in Atlanta, they operated one of the most run-heavy offenses in the league. In those three seasons, the Falcons' top receiver never finished higher than WR31.
The offensive environment in Pittsburgh could very easily hold Pickens back. Even if he dominates the target share market, he may not see the necessary volume to return value at cost.
Jameson Williams, Detroit Lions (ADP: WR47): Jameson Williams' role as the Lions' deep threat makes him a volatile fantasy producer to begin with. Williams is a big play waiting to happen; three of his six career touchdowns have been at least 40 yards in length. Unfortunately, these big plays have been few and far between through two seasons. But Williams is an intoxicating talent, making it easy to be drawn in year after year. His 4.48 speed allows him to torch defensive backs and create explosive plays.
The drumbeat coming out of Detroit has been nothing but positive as well. Head coach Dan Campbell has expressed that Williams has made significant improvements this offseason and is in for a big year. Given his talent and the vote of confidence from the coaching staff, it's easy to buy into Williams this year.
But it's also understandable to be hesitant when Williams comes up in the draft queue. While Williams' talent is promising, nothing in terms of his past production makes him exciting to draft. He has just three career games with double-digit fantasy points and was the WR70 in PPG last season. On top of this, Williams' role as a downfield burner does not mesh well with what Jared Goff likes to do as a quarterback. Goff's 6.7 air yards per last year ranked 31st among quarterbacks. Goff certainly likes what he has in Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta. It would not be shocking to see Williams play a minor role in the offense.
2024 POSITION TIERS & DRAFT STRATEGY
QB | RB | WR | TE | D/ST
Risk vs. Reward: Tight end
Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills (ADP: TE5): Dalton Kincaid was among the new-age wave of tight ends who are breathing life into the position as several veterans reach the end of their careers. Kincaid looked like a strong fantasy option down the stretch last season. From Week 7 on, Kincaid averaged 11.0 PPG and was the TE9.
The biggest case for Kincaid is that he could reasonably lead the Bills in targets this year. Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis both left the team and were not replaced by anyone who is the clear-cut No.1 option. At this point, Kincaid is likely the favorite to lead the team in targets. In an offense led by Josh Allen, this is an incredibly valuable position to be in.
There is also a reality where fellow tight end Dawson Knox is an enormous thorn in Kincaid's side. When they shared the field last year, Kincaid's usage took a hit.
A bit more to the story here...
— Connor Allen (@ConnorAllenNFL) July 25, 2024
Weeks 1-7 (with Knox):
67% routes run rate
13% target share
Weeks 8-12 (Without Knox):
84% routes run rate
23% target share
*Injured shoulder in Week 14 after 86% route and 19% target share. Limited in weeks 15 & 16*
Weeks 17-20 (With Knox)… https://t.co/FX06veTG6K
These splits can't be relied on too heavily as Diggs and Davis are now out of the picture. But if Kincaid fails this season, it will likely be partially due to Knox being on the field more often than drafters had anticipated. Kincaid taking a secondary role to an unexpected WR emerging could also play a role in his failure.
