Every year in fantasy football is different. Some years there are running backs being taken up and down the first round, and then there have been other years recently where wide receivers were more popular first round picks. This season, the lines are more blurred.
There appears to be a clear top-3 for RBs with Christian McCaffrey, Bijan Robinson, and Breece Hall. After that, there's room for a lot more debate, and it could just come down to personal preference between some players. If you're picking towards the end of the first round or early in the second round, there's a good chance that both Jonathan Taylor and Jahmyr Gibbs could be on the board at the same time. If RB is your priority, it's not an easy decision to make.
According to FantasyPros' consensus ADP data, Taylor is being drafted as the RB5 and No. 11 overall, while Gibbs is the RB6 and No. 13 overall. Gibbs had an electric rookie campaign last year, but Taylor has disappointed the last two seasons after one of the best seasons in fantasy football history in 2021 and a stellar rookie campaign before that. Can Gibbs keep improving in his sophomore season? Can Taylor reclaim his dominant form and reward fantasy managers this year? Let's break it down.
DOMINATE YOUR DRAFT: 2024 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet
Should you draft Jonathan Taylor or Jahmyr Gibbs at RB in PPR fantasy football drafts?
Fantasy Football outlook for Detroit Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs
The Lions signed David Montgomery in March of 2023, so it was largely assumed he'd be the bell cow back for Dan Campbell's crew. But then the Lions surprisingly spent the 12th overall pick on Jahmyr Gibbs in the draft just a month and a half later. When factoring in how much draft capital was spent to draft Gibbs in real life, fantasy managers were willing to take a gamble on him as he was drafted as the RB13, while Montgomery was the RB31.
The way the season started, it looked like Gibbs managers were going to regret taking the leap with the rookie. While Montgomery saw an average of 23 carries over the first three weeks, Gibbs was stuck at 10. Gibbs then missed Weeks 5 and 6 with a hamstring injury, but Montgomery suffered a rib injury in Week 6 and had to miss the next two games. This was exactly the opportunity Gibbs needed. After a solid first game as the lead back, he went bonkers for 152 rushing yards, 37 receiving yards and one touchdown.
2024 POSITION TIERS & DRAFT STRATEGY
QB | RB | WR | TE | D/ST
When Montgomery returned, the waters were muddied again, but Gibbs had carved out a larger role, and by the end of the season he was more of the 1a to Montgomery's 1b. Montgomery's presence will always be a concern when it comes to goal line touches, but Gibbs is only going to continue to improve. So while Gibbs likely will fail to reach his potential ceiling with Montgomery around, there's every reason to think he'll take another step forward this season.
Gibbs did suffer another hamstring injury on Aug. 12. His status for Week 1 doesn't appear to be in question, but fantasy managers should at least take this as a caution flag (not a full-blown red flag yet), since recurring soft-tissue injuries can derail a season.
Fantasy Football outlook for Indianpolis Colts RB Jonathan Taylor
It still feels like just yesterday that I found out I'd have the No. 1 overall pick in my home league just an hour before the draft kicked off in 2022. After Taylor's historic 2021 season, taking Taylor No. 1 was as much of a no-brainer as it is this year to take Christian McCaffrey. So, naturally I selected Taylor and then proceeded to enjoy the refreshments, quench my thirst, and trash talk everyone else's picks for a while since I had quite a bit of time to wait until it was my pick again. What could be better, right?
Going off for 161 yards and a touchdown in Week 1 actually did make it even better. But sadly, that was pretty much the extent of the good times. After struggling the next couple of weeks, he went down with an ankle sprain in Week 4. He did return in a few weeks, but he only eclipsed 100 yards rushing one more time the rest of the season and went down with a high ankle sprain on Dec. 17. Not exactly the way I had envisioned the season playing out.
2024 PPR RANKINGS
Top 250 Overall | RB | WR | TE | DEF/ST | K
Taylor would surely bounce back in 2023, right? Things got off to a rocky start, as he couldn't make his debut until Week 5 after a contract holdout. Taylor slogged through his first couple of games, shaking off the rust and still getting into game-shape after the lengthy layoff. After putting together a few solid games, Taylor went down with a thumb injury in Week 12 and didn't return until Christmas Eve. After hearing all of that, he's a clear fade, right? Not so fast.
Taylor did hit paydirt six times in his last five games, the last of which was a playoff loss to the Texans. While the Colts lost the game, Taylor finally looked like his former self, rushing for 188 yards and a touchdown. The Colts' offense also struggled mightily at times last season after rookie QB Anthony Richardson was lost for the season in Week 4. Richardson returns this year, which should give defenses a lot more to worry about. They won't be able to key in on Taylor too much, with Richardson's rushing ability to contend with as well.
And the Colts have every reason to try and protect Richardson more this season, so there's some reason for optimism that he may not torpedo Taylor's TD potential, much like Jalen Hurts has done over the last couple of seasons for Eagles running backs.
The Verdict: Which running back should you draft?
We're actually quite high on both of these players this year. In fact, we're a little higher than consensus within the running back position on both as we have Taylor as our RB4 (No. 10 overall) and Gibbs as our RB5 (13 overall). According to ADP data, Saquon Barkley is currently being drafted ahead of both backs, but we have Barkley as our RB6.
So, in a vacuum, the answer here is Jonathan Taylor when looking strictly at our rankings. But as mentioned earlier, this truly is one that comes down to personal preference. Both running backs do have some issues to factor in.
Gibbs still has Montgomery looming as a touchdown vulture, and another hamstring injury doesn't help either, even if it won't keep him out of any game action...this time. There are also more prominent mouths to feed in Detroit. We already mentioned Montgomery several times, but Sam LaPorta and Amon-Ra St. Brown are also massive pieces of this offense.
The situation is different for Taylor as he should be more of a clear centerpiece of the offense. Taylor has had some injuries the last couple of seasons, but he seems to have had a healthy camp. He's disappointed fantasy managers for two straight years, though. If two years of disappointment is enough, or if you're the type of manager who refuses to draft someone after being burned, then Gibbs might be the pick for you. But we think Taylor is going to put it all back together this season, and he is our pick.
2024 FANTASY AUCTION VALUES (PPR & STANDARD)
Overall | QB | RB | WR | TE | DEF/ST | K
