Whether it's first-round studs or mid-round sleepers, most fantasy football managers have a list of their favorite targets on their 2024 draft cheat sheet. Many of the same mangers also have a "Do Not Draft" list full of potential busts they plan to avoid, either because that player is too high in the rankings or a bad value in relation to his average draft position (ADP).
Sometimes we're much less analytical, opting to trust our gut and fill our 'DND' lists with players we don't want -- guys we think will bust no matter where they're drafted. Either way, overrated players are hazards at every point of a draft.
Using half-point PPR as our standard scoring format to split the difference between full-point PPR and non-PPR leagues, here are players to avoid based on where they're currently ranked and being selected according to early Fantasy Pros' ADP. If these players happen to fall further than expected during your draft, then take your shot, but in terms of how high they're going, drafter beware.
DOMINATE YOUR DRAFT: 2024 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet
Fantasy Football QB Busts 2024: Overrated quarterbacks
C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans (Ranking: QB6 | ADP: QB5)
Stroud was QB10 in average scoring last season as he totaled 23 TDs to only 5 INTs in 15 games. He threw for a robust 4,108 yards and added 187 rushing yards for 3 TDs. This is calling for a massive bump in scoring without previously displaying true rushing "cheat code" attributes. He's going right up there with Anthony Richardson behind Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, and Patrick Mahomes. There's not much value to taking him right ahead of Joe Burrow, Kyler Murray, Dak Prescott, and Jordan Love. Stroud would need to see a major spike in TDs to get there and can't be too much more prolific in passing.
Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins (Ranking: QB13 | ADP: QB14)
Tagovailoa stayed healthy all last season. and in the end, he was QB9 in total scoring because of his shocking durability. But he was also buried down at QB19 in average scoring. The Dolphins' offense allows him big passing volume with big plays going to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Tagovailoa led the league with 4,624 passing yards but had 29 TDs to 14 INTs with 74 scoreless rushing yards. There's no way he will bridge the gap to be a borderline QB1 in 2024, and that's not even factoring in his injury risk.
2024 PPR RANKINGS
Top 250 Overall | QB | RB | WR | TE | DEF/ST | K
Jared Goff, Detroit Lions (Ranking: QB14 | ADP: QB12)
Goff is getting a lot of fantasy draft buzz following his massive real-life contract extension. His production was misleading, too, with a QB7 finish in total but with QB15 in average. Nothing has changed in Detroit to tilt him toward bigger numbers. Like Tua, he's going right after Brock Purdy and Jayden Daniels but also before Caleb Williams and Trevor Lawrence. There's more all-around upside from those QBs vs. trying to force Goff into QB1 status.
Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers (Ranking: QB17 | ADP: QB17)
Herbert is going from a pass-happy offense to a run-heavy offense and now is battling a tough foot injury in the preseason. His weapons have been remixed, and he's still finding his groove with his wide receivers and tight ends while missing key time in camp. Herbert's cost has been adjusted accordingly, but he still isn't appealing for ideal numbers at first under the new regime of Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman.
2024 POSITION TIERS & DRAFT STRATEGY
QB | RB | WR | TE | D/ST
Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets (Ranking: QB20 | ADP: QB19)
For those in SuperFlex or two-QB leagues, a returning Rodgers might be tempting. But he's got limited weapons beyond Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall, and the running game should be busy and effective playing off what has a chance to be the NFL's top defense. Rodgers' volume and wear and tear at 40 can't be trusted anymore.
Fantasy Football RB Busts 2024: Overrated running backs
Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles (Ranking: RB6 | ADP: RB5)
Barkley goes from a team where he was the only offensive option to one that has many, including in the backfield. Barkley won't get the receiving volume he did with the rival Giants, and Jalen Hurts remains the top goal line option in Philadelphia. Plus, the Eagles are working Kenneth Gainwell and versatile rookie Will Shipley into the mix. Barkley is going too high as Kyren Williams and Derrick Henry are set up much better as productive, more consistent workhorses.
Travis Etienne, Jacksonville Jaguars (Ranking: RB9 | ADP: RB8)
Etienne marched to an RB8 finish in average scoring last season on the strength of scoring 12 TDs. He averaged only 3.8 yards per carry but was helped by 58 catches for 476 yards. He should have natural scoring regression, and the receptions will be capped with Christian Kirk and Evan Engram as additional short-to-intermediate options. He also is coming off a big fade down the stretch that can continue into this season. Etienne is too rich in the second tier when there are better values ahead in the third tier.
2024 FANTASY SLEEPERS
QB | RB | WR | TE | Each Team
Josh Jacobs, Green Bay Packers (Ranking: RB12 | ADP: RB12)
Jacobs has already been adjusted to a borderline RB1, but it feels like A.J. Dillon and rookie MarShawn Lloyd will be more involved than expected. Jacobs also finished as the average RB18 in his final Raiders season, and he will see some TD and receiving capping as Jordan Love is in complete command of a dynamic young passing game. Jacobs also has his share of durability issues.
Aaron Jones, Minnesota Vikings (Ranking: RB20 | ADP: RB18)
Jones, the former Packer, is playing for NFC North rivals looking to solve a post-Dalvin Cook backfield mess. He joins one of the most red zone inefficient and pass-happy offenses in the NFL, operated by Sam Darnold instead of Kirk Cousins. Jones battled injury attrition last season and didn't score much until a healthy spike in the playoffs. He also turns 29 in December after finishing RB31 on average in Green Bay last season.
2024 FANTASY AUCTION VALUES (PPR & STANDARD)
Overall | QB | RB | WR | TE | D/ST | K
Raheem Mostert, Miami Dolphins (Ranking: RB24 | ADP: RB25)
Mostert finished as RB3 on average last season thanks to a late-blooming 1,012 rushing yards and a total of 21 TDs. That latter number won't happen again and the former is in doubt with De'Von Achane and impressive rookie Jaylen Wright. At 32, No. 31 will have a major dropoff in value.
Tony Pollard, Tennessee Titans (Ranking: RB27 | ADP: RB27)
Pollard is going only a little ahead of Tyjae Spears. Pollard looks like the early-down lead headed for more volume, but receptions and red zone chances can allow Spears to compensate in a committee. They are more interchangeable in their skill set to think Spears is the better value post-Derrick Henry.
Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos (Ranking: 29 | ADP: RB31)
Williams is an unexciting pick under Sean Payton, and he was an uninspiring runner behind a good run-blocking line last season. Jaleel McLaughlin isn't going away as a change of pace receiving threat. Samaje Perine is hanging around as a veteran backup and Audric Estime can be a goal-line asset.
Austin Ekeler, Washington Commanders (Ranking: 35 | ADP: 32)
Ekeler's fantasy glory days were left behind in Southern California. The new offense with Jayden Daniels should be better set up for younger Brian Robinson Jr. Ekeler also can't expect a big receiving role with several other weapons working with a running QB.
Fantasy Football WR Busts 2024: Overrated wide receivers
A.J. Brown, Philadelphia Eagles (Ranking: WR6 | ADP: WR6)
Brown finished WR11 in overall scoring, which indicates his value is not really in the top half of WR1s, especially with Puka Nacua, Garrett Wilson, and Marvin Harrison Jr. being taken right behind him. The new Moore offense lines up better with the slot-versatile skill set of DeVonta Smith to a have reversal to who's the better fantasy scorer.
Drake London, Atlanta Falcons (Ranking: WR11 | ADP: WR11)
London was WR45 in average scoring last season, so this represents a massive jump from WR45 to WR11. London will be a lot more productive in a pass-happier offense with a top quarterback, Kirk Cousins, but the hype puts him a little higher in relation to some better No. 1 options.
Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints (Ranking: WR12 | ADP: WR12)
Olave finished as the WR21 in the previous offense with only a few big weeks despite massive target share from Derek Carr. Finishing nine sports better as the last WR1 on the board seems like a stretch with Mike Evans, Marvin Harrison Jr., Nico Collins, Cooper Kupp, and the 49ers' duo of Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk going around the same range.
D.J. Moore, Chicago Bears (Ranking: WR20 | ADP: WR22)
Moore's target share is about to take a hit with target hog Keenan Allen in the mix as a top slot option and the presence of rookie first-round Rome Odunze. Moore will also miss his go-to guy from a proven-chemistry perspective with Justin Fields. Moore has been adjusted down well from his WR10 average scoring finish with Caleb Williams, but it's not enough to feel good about him as a value with Allen and Odunze going later in drafts.
Stefon Diggs, Houston Texans (Ranking: WR25 | ADP: WR19)
Diggs is trying to squeeze in his key targets between Collins and Tank Dell. He will see a big dropoff from his clear alpha role in Buffalo. He should be buried a lot more as a WR3 given his second-half fade with the Bills in 2023.
Rashee Rice, Kansas City Chiefs (Ranking: WR32 | ADP: WR36)
Rice has a potential suspension looming. Rookie first-rounder Xavier Worthy and free-agent addition Marquise Brown (now hamstrung) are newcomers stepping into key roles. Rice doesn't have much appeal to improve after his WR30 finish as a rookie.
Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Ranking: WR33 | ADP: WR33)
Godwin was WR37 in average scoring in a different offense under Dave Canales. Baker Mayfield is locked onto Evans and will spread the ball around more with tight end Cade Otton being a bigger factor. Godwin will continue to miss Tom Brady in his age-28 season.
DeAndre Hopkins, Tennessee Titans (Ranking: WR38 | ADP: WR41)
Hopkins, coming off a WR29 finish, has shown the fade in his career and is battling an annoying knee injury after turning 32 in June. Calvin Ridley is clicking as a No. 1 for Will Levis, and first-rounder Treylon Burks has had a revival in camp with Hopkins hurting. Just avoid Nuk.
Fantasy Football TE Busts 2024: Overrated tight ends
Trey McBride, Arizona Cardinals (Ranking: TE4 | ADP: TE3)
McBride had a huge breakout season in the second half but still topped out as the TE12 in average scoring and TE10 in total scoring. He's no longer the top necessary target with Marvin Harrison Jr. taking over as Kyler Murray's go-to guy. This is way too rich for McBride, especially with higher hopes for other Cardinals wideouts, too. McBride is not yet there with Sam LaPorta in the new wave of fantasy tight ends.
Evan Engram, Jacksonville Jaguars (Ranking: TE8 | ADP: TE8)
Engram was TE8 in average scoring and TE6 in total scoring in 2023 when he had a career-best 114 catches for 963 yards. He posted only four TDs despite that volume. He likely won't be there again with Kirk being healthy and rookie first-rounder Brian Thomas Jr. and deep threat Gabe Davis in the mix. There's better value before and after Engram in drafts.
Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles (Ranking: TE11 | ADP: TE12)
Goedert was TE14 in average scoring and TE15 in total scoring last season. The Kellen Moore offense is the big change here, but Goedert still has faded behind Brown and DeVonta Smith in target importance. He is inconsistent in his yardage and hasn't proved to be the required red zone threat for reliable TE1 scoring.
Dalton Schultz, Houston Texans (Ranking: TE14 | ADP: TE14)
Schultz is seeing Houston further expand its wide receiver repertoire with Diggs to add to Collins and Dell without seeing much in the way of vacated targets. Schultz was TE11 all-around last season, but that will slide to the point there's not even good value here as a deeper-league starter.
