If you thought last season was weird, 2024 has officially entered the chat and it's clearly quite drunk already. Even though it's only two weeks, there are some clear trends taking a strong hold on the league. The biggest one is an acceleration of defenses around the NFL embracing two-high safety sets, which has actually been building going back as far as 2006. Now it's the standard though, and as a result passing numbers are down dramatically as quarterbacks have been forced to adopt more of a dink-and-dunk style.
The shift has also forced offenses to go with their running game more often as they attempt to punish opponents for those shells. This week's matchup between the Seattle Seahawks and the Miami Dolphins will underscore the importance of running back depth in this strange, new (but also quite old) world. Right now, it sounds like both teams are going to be missing the number one backs on their respective depth charts.
Seahawks: Kenneth Walker III -> Zach Charbonnet
Seattle is expected to play without star running back Ken Walker for the second straight week. Walker suffered an oblique injury in the fourth quarter of Week 1's win over the Denver Broncos. Since then, Zach Charbonnet has taken over in the backfield for the Seahawks, who appear to be playing it as safe as possible with Walker.
While Charbonnet hasn't been nearly as efficient on the ground as Walker has been the last few seasons, he has come through with some clutch plays, including a third down catch-and-run that helped set up the game-winning field goal in overtime against the New England Patriots. For the year Charbonnet has managed just 50 yards on 22 carries, though (2.3 YPC). He also has seven catches, 60 receiving yards and two touchdowns from scrimmage.
Dolphins: Raheem Mostert -> De'Von Achane
Miami is also expected to be missing their top running back. Today head coach Mike McDaniel told reporters that he's "pessimistic" that Raheem Mostert will be able to go against the Seahawks on Sunday. Assuming Mostert does not play, the Dolphins will continue to lean on De'Von Achane, as they did Weeks 1-2.
Seahawks fans should know by now that with these Shanahan offenses it really doesn't matter who's in the backfield, they're usually going to eat. That's certainly been the case for Achane so far. Through just two games he's already totaled 265 yards from scrimmage and scored two touchdowns. Achane has been equally effective as a rusher and a receiver, where he he's caught all 14 of his targets.
Seahawks run defense under scrutiny
That's bad news for Seattle, because this team did a pretty bad job defending the run in last week's just-barely-got-em overtime victory over the Patriots. Both Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson went off on the ground for New England, racking up 177 rushing yards between them.
Head coach Mike Macdonald has since vowed to stop the run better going forward. If Macdonald can manage to plug up the issues that plagued his defense last week, it will be another excellent sign for the long-term projections for this unit.
On the other hand, if they still can't stop the run again, it would represent more of the same that we saw under former head coach Pete Carroll, whose defenses struggled something awful against the run the last couple of seasons. It would also send the message around the league that this Seahawks defense may be lethal against the pass, but they can be run on.
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