It was April of 2023, and Geno Smith had just wrapped up a career year, throwing for 4,282 yards and 30 touchdowns, earning a three-year, $75 million contract in the process. It seemed that the Seahawks had successfully moved on from Russell Wilson and ushered in a new era in Seattle. Not only was Smith thriving, but the team gave him a shiny new toy in the form of Ohio State wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
Fast forward to April of 2024, Smith's output regressed to a more reasonable level, finishing the 2023 season with 3,621 passing yards and 20 touchdowns. His new weapon didn't quite pay off in year one; Smith-Njigba finished his rookie campaign with a stat line of 63/628/4. Meanwhile, the ageless wonder Tyler Lockett, continued to provide steady production, posting a team-leading 79 receptions en route to 894 yards.
Heading into the 2024 season, fantasy drafters anticipate that Smith-Njigba will surpass Lockett on the depth chart. The veteran comes off the board as the WR51, while the second-year breakout candidate is selected as the WR43 in drafts.
DOMINATE YOUR DRAFT: 2024 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet
Is the draft market correct in assuming Smith-Njigba will assume the WR2 role, or is betting on the reliability of Lockett the better call? Let's take a look at the fantasy outlook of each player and come to a conclusion on who you should be drafting this year.
2024 PPR RANKINGS
Top 250 Overall | RB | WR | TE | DEF/ST | K
Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs. Tyler Lockett: Which Seahawks WR should you draft this year?
Tyler Lockett's fantasy football outlook for 2024
After years of being an incredibly reliable WR2, Tyler Lockett finally took a step back in 2023. He finished as the WR32 overall and the WR37 on a per-game basis. He was still a Flex option in most leagues, but this was the first time since 2017 that he finished outside of the top-24 WRs in PPG.
Even in his age-31 season, Lockett was able to draw 122 targets while maintaining a 22.3 percent target share. These aren't game-changing numbers, but they are very respectable and led to meaningful fantasy production. Last year marked the 6th-straight year where Lockett averaged double-digit fantasy points per game.
Lockett has made a living beating out his ADP. Year in and year out, drafters find reasons to discount Lockett, but he proves them wrong every season. Drafters should expect him to keep this trend up in 2024. There isn't much of a reason to get fired up about Lockett, but he provides quality depth to any WR room and has a strong chance to beat out his WR51 ADP.
2024 FANTASY SLEEPERS
QB | RB | WR | TE | Each Team
Even if Smith-Njigba unseats him as the WR2 for Seattle, Lockett will still have a key role in this offense as the WR3. And if Metcalf or Smith-Njigba miss time for any reason, Lockett, who has been the picture of health throughout his career, will be asked to take on an expanded role in the offense.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba fantasy outlook 2024
Jaxon Smith-Njigba was the first receiver off the board in the 2023 NFL Draft, but he certainly did not live up to his WR1 title. Some people believe that you only have to make excuses in fantasy for bad players, but there is a legitimate case for Smith-Njigba's career getting off to a slow start for reasons outside of his control.
First, he underwent surgery to repair a wrist injury in late August. He was able to suit up for Week 1, but dealing with an injury that required surgery just before your rookie season begins is a surefire way to stunt a player's development. More importantly, Smith-Njigba wasn't given the chance to show his talent thanks to how he was utilized by former offensive coordinator Shane Waldron.
Waldron simply wouldn't get Smith-Njigba on the field; he was on the field for just 65 percent of snaps last season. This just isn't enough playing time for someone who was selected 20th overall in the draft. When Smith-Njigba was on the field, his usage was frankly comical. He played almost exclusively in the slot and saw the majority of his targets at, or near, the line of scrimmage. Smith-Njigba's 6.1-yard aDOT ranked 95th among WRs, and his 10 total deep targets (targets 20-plus yards downfield) ranked 72nd.
2024 POSITION TIERS & DRAFT STRATEGY
QB | RB | WR | TE | D/ST
Thankfully, Waldron is now in Chicago where he will hopefully refrain from tormenting Rome Odunze drafters. Seattle replaced Waldron with Ryan Grubb, who was the architect of one of college football's most successful passing attacks at the University of Washington. All signs point to Grubb getting all three WRs on the field regularly, deploying Smith-Njigba in a more versatile fashion and unlocking his potential.
The Verdict: Should you draft Tyler Lockett or Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Unless you're playing to finish your league in 5th place, the answer is pretty clear. Lockett can play a role on certain teams that require steady production and depth, but he is not the type of player who is going to push your team over the edge into championship contention.
If anyone is going to pay off in a big way to emerge from the WR4 depths to finish as a top-20 option, it will be Smith-Njigba. Even considering the fact that his ADP is 30 picks ahead of Lockett's, he is still the far better pick. Upside wins championships, and Smith-Njigba is an upside-based pick, while Lockett's value in drafts is driven by his relatively safe floor.
2024 STANDARD, NON-PPR RANKINGS
Top 250 Overall | QB | RB | WR | TE | D/ST | K
