The summer of 2024 will go down as the year of the running back in the free agent market. Several big names will don new uniforms this season. The list includes Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs, Aaron Jones, Tony Pollard, D'Andre Swift, and more. But today, we're here to talk about Saquon Barkley.
The 27-year-old signed a three-year, $38 million dollar deal with the Philadelphia Eagles this offseason. Some may question the choice to hand out nearly 40 million dollars to an aging running back, but Barkley will be an Eagle in 2024 and beyond, regardless of the opinions of fans.
Opposing defenses already have a hard time keeping up with A.J. Brown, DeVonta, Smith, Jalen Hurts, and company. Adding Barkley to this vaunted offense may be the final nail in the coffin. This free agency signing may be what pushes the Eagles over the edge into finally capturing their first Super Bowl since Nick Foles' Cinderella run in 2018.
DOMINATE YOUR DRAFT: 2024 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet
But fantasy championships are won in Week 17, not on the second Sunday in February. While the Eagles' Super Bowl aspirations are fine and dandy, they don't mean anything in regard to how Barkley will perform in fantasy football. With that being said, what can fantasy managers expect out of the Eagles' newest offensive weapon?
2024 PPR Rankings
Top 250 Overall | RB | WR | TE | DEF/ST | K
Saquon Barkley Fantasy Football Outlook: How Will He Perform in Philadelphia?
Drastically improved offensive environment
There is no sugarcoating it, the Giants' offense in 2023 was horrifyingly bad. They ranked 29th in total offense and 30th in scoring offense, scoring an abysmal 15.6 points per game. Without Barkley's help, who knows how ugly it could have been in East Rutherford.
Barkley now moves to an offense that has ranked top-10 in total offense and scoring offense in back-to-back years with Nick Sirianni and Jalen Hurts at the helm. Not only will Barkley benefit from a far superior offensive environment, but the blocking he will receive will be like night and day. PFF currently ranks the Giants' offensive line as the 4th worst in the league. Meanwhile, the Eagles come in at their No. 3 spot.
The Eagles' offense will be the best overall environment that Barkley has seen in his career. The question is whether he'll have the access to valuable touches that he'll need to succeed.
2024 FANTASY SLEEPERS
QB | RB | WR | TE | Each Team
Saquon Barkley in line for reduced work load with Eagles?
The barren wasteland that was the Giants' offense in 2022 and 2023 led to Barkley shouldering the majority of touches and offensive responsibility in New York. Barkley ranked top-5 in touches per game in each of the last two years; he approached an 80-percent snap share in each of those seasons as well.
A move to Philadelphia means there will be less on Barkley's plate as the Eagles have a high-end passing offense and a star-studded cast of weapons. Barkley will not approach the 20 touches per game that he saw in New York in recent years.
Sirianni has also never utilized a bell cow back, opting for a running back by committee approach - that being said, Sirianni has never had a back with Barkley's skill set. There's a chance Barkley changes Sirianni's philosophy, but preseason reports indicate that both Kenneth Gainwell and Will Shipley are getting reps with the first team and could play a role in the offense when the regular season rolls around.
2024 POSITION TIERS & DRAFT STRATEGY
QB | RB | WR | TE | D/ST
Will Barkley see a decrease in goal line touches and targets?
The most valuable opportunities a running back can see are targets and goal line touches. There is reason to believe that Barkley will not see enough targets or goal line touches to pay off at his late 1st-round price.
First looking at the goal line work, this one is fairly straightforward. The Eagles are proud owners of the Tush Push, the most effective short-yardage play in NFL history. This play has allowed Jalen Hurts to score a ridiculous 22 one-yard touchdowns since 2021. Second place, Saints RB Jamaal Williams, comes in with 14 punch-in scores in this timeframe while he was in Detroit. There has been some speculation that the Eagles will move away from the Tush Push following the retirement of Jason Kelce, but it's hard to see them give up on a play that has been so consistently successful.
Barkley is now in an offense that has not used running backs as receivers at a high rate. In 2022, the Eagles ranked dead last in running back target share. In 2023, with a strong receiving back in D'Andre Swift, the Eagles ranked 16th in this metric.
Sure, Barkley's presence can lead to a spike in these numbers, but with a mobile quarterback in Hurts and strong target earners in Brown and Smith, it's hard to see Philadelphia ranking much higher than league average in running back target share. On a per-route basis, running backs who have played with Hurts and in Kellen Moore's offenses have not seen targets at a high rate.
Target per route run rates at RB:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) June 20, 2024
(2019-23)
18.9% — League average
17.5% — RBs playing for Kellen Moore
15.9% — RBs playing with Jalen Hurts
14.5% — RBs not named Kenneth Gainwell playing with Jalen Hurts
For a running back whose fantasy value has been heavily driven by his usage as a receiver, these trends are quite concerning.
2024 Standard, Non-PPR Rankings
Top 250 Overall | QB | RB | WR | TE | D/ST | K
Saquon Barkley's overall fantasy outlook for 2024
There is no doubt that Saquon Barkley is a talented football player who will help the Eagles succeed. But in terms of helping your fantasy roster, it's hard to see a path where he is a strong enough asset to justify his cost. Barkley currently comes off the board as the 9th overall pick in drafts. But the red flags around running back usage in Philadelphia make it seem that he's more suited to be a second-round pick.
While we expect Barkley to be a top-8 RB, he is being drafted too aggressively in the overall draft landscape. Taking his teammate A.J. Brown or another running back like Jonathan Taylor seem like better options at the end of Round 1. It's an unlikely scenario, but if Barkley slips to you towards the middle of Round 2, don't hesitate to scoop him up in that range.
