The quickest way for your fantasy team's season to be derailed is through a serious injury. Just ask the people who drafted Nick Chubb in the first round last season. He looked like his typical, dominant self through a game and a half before his season was cut short in Week 2. It is almost impossible to recover from the loss of a star player like Chubb that early in a season.
DOMINATE YOUR DRAFT: 2024 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet
Injuries are largely difficult to predict, but whether it's due to their age, play style, or injury history, certain players are simply predisposed to injury risk. Certain players are widely recognized as injury-prone such as George Kittle, J.K. Dobbins, and Mike Williams.
But is it possible to quantify injury risk so it can be considered during fantasy football drafts? Thanks to the Draft Sharks Injury Predictor, the answer is yes. Draft Sharks utilizes an injury history database in tandem with a machine learning model to predict a player's chances of sustaining an injury this season. They define this as the probability of a player missing at least two quarters at any point in 2024.
2024 PPR Rankings
Top 250 Overall | RB | WR | TE | DEF/ST | K
Draft Sharks Injury Predictor: Identifying the biggest injury risks, potential busts in 2024 fantasy football drafts
The old adage of "your best ability is availability" is crucial in fantasy football. Very few teams have the depth to replace key pieces of their lineup. So if an impactful piece of your roster goes down with an injury, your team could be hurting to a significant degree. When drafting your teams, consider their injury risk analysis to hopefully not have to deal with this issue.
These are the top-5 players with the highest injury risk at each position. Keep their injury risk in mind when their name comes up on Draft Day.
Note: The players below are ranked in order of their overall injury risk this season (with "injury risk" being defined as the likelihood of suffering an injury that causes a player to miss at least two quarters).
2024 FANTASY AUCTION VALUES (PPR & STANDARD)
Overall | QB | RB | WR | TE | DEF/ST | K
Who are the quarterbacks with the biggest injury risk in fantasy football?
1. Justin Fields, Pittsburgh Steelers (87 percent): Justin Fields coming in at the top of this list shouldn't come as a shock to anyone who has watched Bears football in recent years. In his first three NFL seasons, Fields failed to play a full year. He has missed at least two games in each season, most recently sidelined for four games thanks to a thumb injury. Fields' rushing ability and willingness to scramble are a key part of his game and make him so electric. But this play style also puts him at risk of injury and will continue to in 2024.
2. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams (80 percent): Matthew Stafford is not the archetype of a dual-threat quarterback, but he still poses a high risk of injury. Stafford's age and extensive injury history put him at risk of missing time this year. Stafford has 22 injuries logged in the Draft Sharks database, by far the highest mark of any quarterback. He has been noted to be incredibly tough, constantly fighting through the in-season injuries. But at age 36, it will become increasingly difficult for Stafford to fight off the injury bug. It's likely that his injury history catches up to him at some point this year.
3. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers (69 percent): Sticking within the city limits, Justin Herbert is at risk of missing time this season. His past injuries play a role in this, with his injury "resume" being highlighted by hand and shoulder injuries in recent years. But his high-risk designation is primarily driven by an injury he is currently dealing with. It was recently announced that he's dealing with plantar fasciitis in his right foot. It's reported that he'll be available for Week 1, but this is an injury that has been known to cause nagging issues. Chargers' legend Antonio Gates lost a season due to this same injury. This will be a situation to monitor throughout the preseason.
4. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals (63 percent): Joe Burrow is among the league's best quarterbacks when he's on the field. The problem for Burrow has been avoiding long-term injuries. To this point, he's had knee and wrist injuries end two of his four NFL seasons prematurely. The concern with Burrow is that there's is no knowing if his wrist injury will have lingering effects this season. There is no history of quarterbacks dealing with this specific injury, so there is no precedent for recovery. This is something that could impact Burrow's season.
5. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles (56 percent): Jalen Hurts has a fairly limited injury history, but his physical nature of play regularly puts him at risk of injury. His only "official" injury last season was a finger dislocation, but many believed his knee was less than 100 percent for a good portion of the season. Like many quarterbacks whose legs and body are assets, he will be put into some precarious situations, particularly near the goal line. Some suspect that the Eagles will turn to Saquon Barkley at the goal line. This would benefit Hurts' injury outlook immensely.
2024 FANTASY SLEEPERS
QB | RB | WR | TE | Each Team
The running backs with the biggest injury risks in fantasy football
1. Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City Chiefs (90 percent): Consistent issues with his shoulder drive Isiah Pacheco's high level of injury risk. Through two NFL seasons, Pacheco has undergone two shoulder surgeries on the same shoulder. Heading into year three, Pacheco is projected to see the largest workload of his career, a factor that certainly plays into his high-risk profile. As the primary back in Kansas City, and given his explosive running style, Pacheco will be subjected to brutal collisions on a consistent basis. His chances to play all 18 games are slim.
2. Raheem Mostert, Miami Dolphins (89 percent): Raheem Mostert checks two of the key boxes for the Draft Sharks Injury Predictor; he is an aging running back and has a lengthy injury history. Mostert has consistently missed games throughout his career, failing to appear in half of the games in several seasons. Last year was a relatively healthy season for Mostert, missing only two games due to ankle and knee injuries. With his lengthy injury history and now at 32 years old, Mostert is a prime candidate to miss time this year
3. Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams (89 percent): Kyren Williams (narrowly) comes in as the third running back on this list. But Draft Sharks currently projects him to miss 3.48 games, the highest number of any player. This is thanks to his enormous workload and consistent ankle issues. Williams has now had an ankle injury in each of his three NFL seasons, including this offseason. A heavy workload once again in 2024 will drive his injury risk. Drafting Williams in 2024 should come with the expectation that he could miss a few games.
4. James Conner, Arizona Cardinals (88 percent): James Conner is the king of battling through minor injuries. He has been able to avoid season-ending ailments, but he has not once played a full season in his career. A variety of injuries have plagued him, ranging from shoulder to ankle issues. If the song "Head, Shoulders, Knees, and Toes" applied to a player's injury history, it would be Conner. Expecting him to miss a handful of games each season is a given at this point in his career.
5. Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints (88 percent): Considering the length of his career (seven seasons), Kamara has been able to stay fairly healthy with just eight recorded injuries. His most recent was an ankle sprain which occurred in Week 17 of last year. Kamara is considered a high-risk player due to his age for the most part. His injury history suggests that he is unlikely to miss significant time, but the 29-year-old is likely to get dinged up at some point.
Which wide receivers are most likely to suffer an injury in 2024?
1. Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals (89 percent): Those who have drafted Tee Higgins in fantasy football are well aware of the frustration surrounding him and his knack of ending up on the injury report. The lack of clarity regarding his health has likely cost people matchups. Draft Sharks is projecting more of the same in 2024, ranking him as the wide receiver with the biggest injury risk this year.
2. Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers (87 percent): Deebo Samuel has arguably spent more time in the trainer's room than Tee Higgins. But given his usage, this is to be expected. Samuel is capable seeing upwards of 50 carries in any season. These touches have dramatically impacted his injury risk. Even with Christian McCaffrey in the building, Samuel has seen consistent work as a rusher. As long as he is used in this capacity, Samuel's injury risk remains high.
3. Drake London, Atlanta Falcons (87 percent): Given his age and significantly shorter injury history than previous names, Drake London may be a shocking name to see on this list. Nonetheless, London is projected to miss 2.40 games this season. Using the Draft Sharks Injury Prediction model, there is an 87 percent chance that London will miss at least two quarters at any point this year.
4. Christian Kirk, Jacksonville Jaguars (86 percent): Christian Kirk has missed time in four of the last six seasons. His two most recent injuries have both been groin injuries. His 2023 season came to a halt in Week 13 due to a torn groin. Soft tissue injuries of this nature can often linger and cause issues in the future. It should not come as a shock if Kirk's groin issues flare up at some point this season.
5. Jayden Reed, Green Bay Packers (83 percent): Following his usage and explosiveness as a rusher, Jayden Reed drew comparisons to Deebo Samuel. Given his rushing work, it should come as no shock that both Reed and Samuel both rank highly in terms of their injury risk. Reed is a smaller receiver who will be put into some rather dangerous situations. Reed avoiding injury in 2024 would be a massive win for fantasy managers.
Fantasy Football 2024: The top-5 injury risks among tight ends
1. Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh Steelers (88 percent): Pat Freiermuth has been banged up to a degree in each season of his NFL career. The primary culprits have been hamstring issues and concussions. With both of these ailments having strong chances of causing issues in the future, Freiermuth is considered a high-risk player to get hurt this year. If he sustains a fourth concussion in 2024, this could be a real issue regarding his longevity.
2. Zach Ertz, Washington Commanders (84 percent): Shockingly, Zach Ertz is not the oldest active tight end in the NFL. Marcedes Lewis holds that title by a wide margin. But Ertz's expectation of being Washington's TE1 makes him a candidate to tack on to his lengthy injury history. Last season, we saw how an injury can derail Ertz's season. He strained his quad in Week 7 and did not play another snap for the rest of the year. If he suffers even a minor injury this year, don't be shocked if Ertz fades into the darkness.
3. Taysom Hill, New Orleans Saints (81 percent): Taysom Hill's "jack of all trades" role in New Orleans' offense puts him in situations that most tight ends are not subjected to. Hill has 14 documented injuries with at least one in every season since 2021. Hill is expected to be a do-it-all player once again in 2024, even though a new offensive scheme will be in place, which makes him an injury candidate once again.
4. George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers (81 percent): George Kittle is often commended for his willingness to do the dirty work that many tight ends despise. But his gritty mentality often puts him in harm's way. 2023 was just Kittle's second full season of his career. He may have played a full season, but he was certainly not healthy. Kittle played through a hernia which he had surgically repaired this offseason. Kittle is among the toughest players in the league, but drafters should not be surprised if an injury slows him down at some point.
5. Jelani Woods, Indianapolis Colts (78 percent): Jelani Woods has been a favorite late-round flier of drafters thanks to his elite athleticism. While it's exciting to bet on athletic freaks like Woods, they can't help fantasy teams if they are dealing with nagging injuries. Woods has a frightening history of hamstring issues. Multiple hamstring injuries last season prevented Woods from playing a single snap. He has reportedly worked through these issues, but taking a full season (or more) to recover from a hamstring strain is an enormous red flag.
