If you end up with a draft slot outside of the first 5-7 picks, there's a good chance the top-3 running backs (Christian McCaffrey, Bijan Robinson, and Breece Hall) will already be off the board. For reference, according to FantasyPros' consensus ADP data, Breece Hall and Bijan Robinson are the RBs 2 and 3 and overall picks No. 4 and No. 5, respectively.
So, if that ends up being the case, then the best strategy is to focus on the elite wide receivers and not reach too high for a running back in the first round. But when things come back around in the second round, it could be your last chance at a top-10 running back. Isiah Pacheco and Derrick Henry are two names that pop up in this range who make for an interesting debate.
Pacheco and Henry are both bruising running backs who run with reckless abandon at times. They're not the type of back that will routinely bounce things outside and run east and west. Oh no, it's almost exclusively north and south for these hard-hitters. Pacheco will be entering his third season, while Henry is back for his ninth season. Pacheco is back with the Chiefs, but Henry packed his bags and is now in Baltimore with the Ravens. After breaking down both situations, which will prove to be the better draft pick?
DOMINATE YOUR DRAFT: 2024 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet
Should you draft Derrick Henry or Isiah Pacheco at RB in PPR fantasy football drafts?
Fantasy Football outlook for Baltimore Ravens RB Derrick Henry
Henry has a much longer resume than Pacheco who will be entering his third season. King Henry has racked up four Pro-Bowl seasons and one All-Pro season in 2020, but with that longevity also comes many more miles of wear and tear. A peek behind the curtain with Hard Knocks showed us that the Giants decided not to bring Saquon Barkley back on a new deal because he had passed the 27-year-old mark, an age where running backs historically start to see some erosion of production. This will be Henry's age-30 season.
In his All-Pro season, Henry became just the eighth player in NFL history to eclipse the 2,000 rushing yards mark as he finished with 2,027. It was also his second straight season as the rushing champion. Henry did suffer a fracture in his foot after eight games the following season, but he's been very healthy the last couple of seasons with the Titans.
While he might have been healthy, the Titans' offense as a whole certainly was not. But Henry is no longer in Tennessee, as he's now with Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. On the plus side, this is a far superior offensive situation. There's no one on the roster that should really threaten his assumed bell cow usage. Justice Hill remains on the team, and Keaton Mitchell is starting the year on the PUP list as he continues his recovery from a torn ACL.
2024 POSITION TIERS & DRAFT STRATEGY
QB | RB | WR | TE | D/ST
On the negative side, there are more competent mouths to feed. In addition to pass catchers like Zay Flowers, Mark Andrews, Rashad Bateman, and Isaiah Likely, Jackson is a nightmare for defenders when he takes off and runs it himself. Jackson's versatility and explosiveness, coupled with there being more weapons capable of hitting paydirt, could limit Henry's TD production despite being in a better offense. Henry historically has not been much of a pass catcher, but he did jump up to 33 and 28 receptions the last two seasons, respectively. Prior to that, he averaged less than 16 receptions per season. They say you can't teach an old dog new tricks, so we may have already seen Henry's ceiling as a receiver.
Fantasy Football outlook for Kansas City Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco
There isn't as much data on Pacheco since he's entering just his third season, so his case is trickier to predict. What we do know is that Pacheco is one of, if not the hardest runner in the league. That can lead to highlight runs, and has helped him to a 4.7 yards per attempt average over his first two seasons.
During his rookie campaign, Pacheco only managed to haul in 13 receptions, none of which led to any scores. However, especially after Jerick McKinnon missed some time, Pacheco started to make some strides in the passing game. He ultimately tallied 44 receptions for 244 yards and two touchdowns, giving him nine total touchdowns on the season. McKinnon is no longer on the team, so Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Deneric Prince are backing him up, which could allow for Pacheco to see his receiving numbers look like last season's output or even better, as opposed to regressing back to his rookie numbers.
And much like in Henry's situation, Pacheco is also playing alongside an MVP quarterback - except in this case, Patrick Mahomes may be the best player to ever put on a helmet. That's why it will be important for Pacheco to remain a part of the passing game. Mahomes has shown over the years that he has no problem spreading the ball around as players like Justin Watson, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Blake Bell and others have given fantasy managers fits over the years, when they'd rather be seeing splash plays go to Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice, and more fantasy-relevant players. In addition to Kelce and Rice, the Chiefs brought in Hollywood Brown, drafted speedster Xavier Worthy, and also just signed Juju Smith-Schuster for a second time. That adds up to a lot of mouths, but as long as Mahomes keeps spreading it around, Pachceco shouldn't be impacted too much.
2024 PPR RANKINGS
Top 250 Overall | RB | WR | TE | DEF/ST | K
Given Pacheco's running style, one concern to keep in mind is whether he can stay healthy in 2024. Despite only playing in two seasons, Pacheco has already suffered a fractured hand, a torn labrum, a cleanup procedure on the same shoulder, and a concussion that didn't see him miss any additional games. Durability could end up being a long-term concern, but it's not enough to have us shying away much this year.
The Verdict: Which running back should you draft?
This is about as close as it gets. According to FantasyPros' consensus ADP data, Henry is being drafted as RB8 and No. 17 overall, and Pacheco is being drafted as RB10 and No. 19 overall with Jacksonville's Travis Etienne in between them. As a reminder, ADP stands for average draft position, so that is the spot they're being drafted when factoring in all drafters. When you look at the consensus rankings, which takes into account the rankings of 118 industry analysts, the story changes. Pacheco is ranked as the RB9 and No. 32 overall, and Henry is the RB11 and No. 39 overall.
So, the experts think Pacheco will be the better running back, while the public is giving the edge to the more familiar name in Henry - this is not surprising when you factor in fantasy managers of all skill levels are factored into the ADP numbers. Sporting News has Pacheco as our RB8 and No. 25 overall, while we have Henry as the RB9 and No. 30 overall.
While Henry is the more familiar name, has the longer track record, and has shown a higher ceiling in the past, Pacheco is our choice here. Henry has been healthy the last two seasons, but there's a lot of wear and tear on those wheels, and that's a scary thing. Henry is 30 now, which is probably closer to 40 in running back years. Plus he's in an entirely new offense on a brand new team. Of course, that could end up being a positive, but it's one more variable to consider.
2024 FANTASY AUCTION VALUES (PPR & STANDARD)
Overall | QB | RB | WR | TE | DEF/ST | K
Pacheco is younger, he likely hasn't shown us his ceiling yet, and he has shown a bigger receiving upside. You never want to swing and miss this early in a draft, but even if Henry does outperform Pacheco this season, it shouldn't be by a large margin. Pacheco might have the higher ceiling at this stage of their careers, and the wear and tear on Henry's body is too big of a red flag to not give Pacheco the nod here.
