The Seattle Seahawks didn't want to talk to Geno Smith's representation about a contract extension prior to the 2024 season. There is plenty of logic to that stance, not least among them that Smith will be turning 34 years old one week from today. Smith also has a team-friendly contract that has the rest of this season plus another one to go, and Seattle has historically refused to negotiate with even their most-important players with two or more years left on their deals.
All that being said, the way Smith is performing to start the season might be giving the front office second thoughts about possibly making an exception. Despite his relative advanced age for an NFL starter, Smith is throwing the ball well enough right now to lead the league in passing yards going into Week 5. If Smith can keep that up for an entire season it would certainly give a significant boost for his side in any contract negotiations to come.
So, what would the market look like for this new-and-even-more-improved version of Geno Smith? NFL Network analyst Daniel Jeremiah seems to think there might be a robust one, provided that Smith continues performing the way he has. Here's what Jeremiah told Brock & Salk earlier this week.
NFL Network on Geno Smith
“What do you think? Do you think the Carolina Panthers would give him $50 million after this year, and maybe another five or six teams might be willing to do that?” I mean, he’s going to find his value whether or not Seattle wants to to do it or not. Somebody’s going to step up and give it to him if he keeps playing like this.”
Interesting stuff. It's probably worth pointing out that quarterback salaries go up every year whether they deserve it or not, and in just a couple years $50+ million per season is going to be a normal salary for any above-average starter.
Here's how much every quarterback ranked over Smith is making per year, according to numbers at Over the Cap.
NFL QB yearly salary rankings
1. Dak Prescott - Dallas Cowboys: $60 million a year
2. Joe Burrow - Cincinnati Bengals: $55 million a year
3. Jordan Love - Green Bay Packers: $55 million a year
4. Trevor Lawrence - Jacksonville Jaguars: $55 million a year
5. Tua Tagovailoa - Miami Dolphins: $53.1 million a year
6. Jared Goff - Detroit Lions: $53 million a year
7. Justin Herbert - Los Angeles Chargers: $52.5 million a year
8. Lamar Jackson - Baltimore Ravens: $52 million a year
9. Jalen Hurts - Philadelphia Eagles: $51 million a year
10. Kyler Murray - Arizona Cardinals: $46.1 million a year
11. Deshaun Watson - Cleveland Browns: $46 million a year
12. Kirk Cousins - Atlanta Falcons: $45 million a year
13. Patrick Mahomes - Kansas City Chiefs: $45 million a year
14. Josh Allen - Buffalo Bills: $43 million a year
15. Matt Stafford - Los Angeles Rams: $40 million a year
16. Daniel Jones - New York Giants: $40 million a year
17. Aaron Rodgers - New York Jets: $37.5 million a year
18. Derek Carr - New Orleans Saints: $37.5 million a year
19. Baker Mayfield - Tampa Bay Buccaneers: $33.33 million a year
20. Geno Smith - Seattle Seahawks: $25 million a year
Given the value they're getting here you can see why John Schneider and Mike Macdonald wouldn't be in any great hurry to give Smith a new contract, especially with a promising 24-year old backing him up in Sam Howell, who still has another year on his rookie deal.
That said, there's a pretty significant gap between the way Smith is performing at the moment and what Howell is capable of, at least at this early stage of his career. If the Seahawks consider themselves contenders (they should), then Geno will represent their best chance to win any particular matchup at least until the end of the 2025 season, and possibly much longer. Therefore, they could justify another contract for him - especially after they see how much Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen inevitably reset the market.
Is Geno Smith worth it?
The thing to remember about Smith's age is that it's not as bad as it sounds in football years. While other 30-something quarterbacks like Matt Stafford and Russell Wilson took a tremendous amount of punishment in their first decade in the league, Smith only started full-time for two seasons, and then was on the sidelines as a backup until 2022. That means this is only his fifth full year as a starter at this level and his body simply hasn't taken nearly as much punishment as you'd expect from a 34-year old quarterback.
Then again, we know what happened to Wilson when he was on deck for a contract worth over $50 million per year. The Seahawks got out at exactly the right time, apparently anticipating the dramatic dropoff in Wilson's game that seemingly started in 2022 but actually began in the second half of the 2020 campaign. Once an iron man who had only missed seven games in his career prior to this season, Wilson is now so far gone physically that he has yet to play a game for the 2024 Pittsburgh Steelers, who appear to belong to Justin Fields no matter what Mike Tomlin says. That's a story for another day, though.
Right now it's difficult to see Schneider shelling out that much money for Smith, or any NFL quarterback around Smith's age. However, as Jeremiah said, if Geno can manage to keep this elite level of play up for an entire season then everything we previously thought we knew about Smith's market both in an out of Seattle will change.
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