If you're somehow still alive in your 2024 NFL survivor contest, kudos to you. And if you have opponents who are also still standing, there's more work to do! This column will break down some of the top Week 5 survivor picks, highlighting each team's strengths and potential risks.
This analysis is brought to you by PoolGenius, the only platform that offers customized pick recommendations designed to maximize your chances of winning NFL survivor pools.
MORE: Check out the PoolGenius NFL Survivor Picks product
The Jets added to the trend of heavy favorites falling this season, knocking out many survivor entries with their loss to Denver last week. So far this season, five of the seven most popular survivor picks have been eliminated.
As a result, survivor pool eliminations are occurring at a faster rate than any other year in the past decade. Still, many players remain in the game, thanks to "second-chance" or “revival” pools that start new each week, keeping the race for survivor glory alive.
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Week 5 NFL Survivor: Pick strategy
The five teams listed below are the most popular NFL survivor picks for Week 5, according to public pick data from the largest survivor pool hosting sites. Chances are, you're considering at least one of them.
In our pick analysis, we focus on three key data factors:
- win odds
- pick popularity
- future value.
The ideal Week 5 survivor pick will combine these three factors:
- High win odds (making it a relatively safe choice)
- Low pick popularity (allowing you to survive while many of your opponents are eliminated)
- Low future value (meaning the team won't be as valuable in future weeks).
However, no pick is perfect, and each week requires a careful balance of these factors. As we break down each team, it’s essential to understand two key concepts: Pick Popularity and Expected Value, which we’ll explain next.
Pick popularity
Pick popularity, as referenced in our analysis, refers to the estimated percentage of survivor pool entries nationwide that will select the team in question in Week 5. Those numbers can shift over the course of the week, so make sure to check our product for the latest data.
Expected value
Expected value is one of the measures by which we evaluate each potential survivor pick. It compares the value of picking each team against all other potential options for that week.
Expected value combines win odds and pick popularity into one measure to compare the interplay of both. The concept of expected value considers all the potential outcomes of making a particular survivor pick. It goes beyond just taking the team with the best win odds.
Every week is different, and the interplay of every potential result, the number of entries picking each team, and the overall size of the pool impact the expected value of a selection.
Let's get to the top five most heavily picked teams for Week 5 survivor contests.
Week 5 NFL Survivor: Picks and analysis
Seattle Seahawks (vs. Giants)
Pick Popularity: 33% (most popular)
Point Spread: -6.0
Pros: Seattle faces a relatively favorable matchup in Week 5, and their future schedule becomes significantly tougher. This suggests they have limited future value, making them an appealing option to use now.
Cons: With rising popularity in a week with few clear options, Seattle’s expected value (EV) is below average. They're also a bit risky for such a popular pick, as they are favored by less than a touchdown. However, given that 11 of the 13 other games feature teams favored by 3.5 points or fewer, it’s a riskier week across the board.
MORE: Sporting News analyst thinks the Seahawks might be the optimal Week 5 pick
San Francisco 49ers (vs. Cardinals)
Pick Popularity: 16% (second-most popular)
Point Spread: -7.5
Pros: The 49ers are the heaviest favorite of the week, offering strong win odds. Since many entries used San Francisco to advance last week, their pick popularity is only about half that of Seattle, giving them a strong EV.
Cons: The 49ers may not be available if you already used them last week, as around half of advancing entries did. They also carry some future value, particularly in Week 14 or beyond, making them a good team to save in larger pools expected to go deep into the season—especially if multiple picks are required in later weeks.
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Washington Commanders (vs. Browns)
Pick Popularity: 13% (third-most popular)
Point Spread: -3.0
Pros: Washington has impressed in the past two weeks, winning outright as underdogs. The market may be undervaluing the Commanders, and their relatively low future value makes them an attractive pick for this week.
Cons: Despite being only 3-point favorites, Washington is overly popular, leading to a poor EV. There are several teams favored by around the same margin this week, but with much lower popularity, offering better overall value.
Chicago Bears (vs. Panthers)
Pick Popularity: 9% (fourth-most popular)
Point Spread: -3.5
Pros: By win odds relative to this tough week, Chicago ranks fourth, giving them solid expected value (EV). The Bears have low future value, and this is one of the better projected spots to use them based on win odds.
Cons: Chicago’s popularity is higher than several teams with similar point spreads, somewhat reducing their EV. Our models are also less optimistic about Chicago here, as the Carolina Panthers, with Andy Dalton at quarterback, have shown improvement, putting up 60 points over the last two games. This makes Carolina a tougher opponent than their overall season stats might indicate.
Minnesota Vikings (vs. Jets, London game)
Pick Popularity: 6% (fifth-most popular)
Point Spread: -2.5
Pros: The Vikings are 4-0 and favored to win this matchup.
Cons: Minnesota is favored by less than a field goal on a neutral site in London, making them a riskier pick compared to other options this week. This contributes to their below-average EV. Additionally, the Vikings have significant future value, with projections showing them as bigger favorites in seven straight games starting in Week 9, making it potentially wise to save them for later in the season.
Get Expert NFL Week 5 Survivor picks
Understanding the impact of objective metrics like win odds, pick popularity, and future value is crucial for long-term success in NFL survivor pools. However, the relative importance of each factor can shift considerably based on your pool's size and specific rules.
To determine the best Week 5 pick (or combination of picks if you have multiple entries) and maximize your edge in your 2024 survivor pool, you need extensive data, detailed analysis, and a significant investment of time.
Our NFL Survivor Picks product streamlines this process by delivering personalized weekly pick advice that incorporates the latest matchup data, betting odds, and pick popularity trends.
The product calculates expected value and future value for every team, tracks all your picks across multiple entries, and provides recommendations for distributing picks in multi-entry pools. Additionally, you'll have access to tools to help you develop a winning strategy for future weeks.
Try it out for free in Week 5 using the links below, and good luck in your survivor pools!
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