The 2024 NFL season has been utter carnage for chalk bettors, with underdogs of +5.5 or greater going 17-4-1 against the spread this season. The heaviest favorite in Weeks 1, 2, and 3 all lost, as did the first five favorites of -7.0 or greater this season. Needless to say, few survivor pool entries remain.
If you're still standing in yours, give yourself a pat on the back. If you've survived partly because you read this column every week, let us take a quick bow. We told you to consider avoiding the Bengals in Week 1, Ravens in Week 2, and Bengals in Week 3 — and all three of those plays lost (vs. Patriots, vs. Raiders, vs. Commanders).
We also made the 49ers our priority pick last week, and they promptly blew the doors off the Patriots in Santa Clara. Our strategies have been a mixture of early-week gut calls and data analysis we get from our friends at PoolGenius, the No. 1 resource for NFL survivor pool strategies and NFL survivor pool tips.
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As you know by now, survivor pools are not just about winning an individual week. They are about optimizing future value to stay alive as long as possible. Translation: avoid picking a team with multiple high-value weeks on the horizon over a team with a great shot of winning now but a sub-optimal rest-of-season schedule.
Easier said than done, we get it. But, fret not! Resources like PoolGenius are in place to help your survivor journey. By analyzing data like pick popularity and factoring long-term expected value, we can follow the basic week-to-week strategies that help us maintain success and cash out some jackpots.
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Let's take a closer look at Week 5's top teams, breaking down which options might be better choices for this weekend and which ones might be best served for later on down the line.
The Sporting News has teamed up with PoolGenius this season long to bring you the best weekly advice on all things survivor pools. PoolGenius subscribers have reported over $6 million in NFL survivor pool winnings.
NFL most popular Week 5 survivor picks
It's pretty easy to tell which picks will be the most popular ahead of a new NFL week. Lopsided moneylines and spreads often dictate survivor-pool action — attacking the opponent perceived as the weakest is a tale as old as time.
Here are the most heavily favored teams for Week 5, along with their PoolGenius win probability odds:
| Team | Opponent | Spread | Line | PG odds |
| 49ers | vs. Cardinals | -7.5 | -350 | 77% |
| Seahawks | vs. Giants | -6.5 | -275 | 72% |
| Chiefs | vs. Saints | -5.5 | -250 | 67% |
| Bears | vs. Panthers | -4.5 | -225 | 61% |
| Commanders | vs. Browns | -3.0 | -185 | 63% |
For the second consecutive week, the 49ers rank as the most heavily-favored team and the Chiefs sit amongst the top three favorites.
It's quite possible you have already picked both those teams, so this week could be a make-or-break one for your entry. Which lesser-picked squad yields the highest win probability?
Let's consider the pros and cons with picking each of these most popular teams, looking at the big picture and charting a roadmap to wins over the next 10-15 weeks.
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Seahawks at home vs. Giants might be the most popular and best Week 5 pick
Even if San Francisco and Kansas City remain available in your survivor pool, you might want to avoid them. For one, both teams have favorable games ahead according to the PoolGenius NFL survivor season planner. Secondly, both teams will be such popular picks this week that you'll have little pick variance if you follow the crowd. And lastly, each teams' opponent is legit!
Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison Jr. have formed a very exciting connection early on for the Cardinals, and the Niners could be without top defender and captain Fred Warner (ankle). This game reeks of "road upset" potential. The same can be said for the Saints at Chiefs, considering Kansas City is now without two starters (Isiah Pacheco and Rashee Rice) and New Orleans already upset the Cowboys this season.
The Seahawks vs. the Giants, meanwhile, seem like a very solid choice all around. The PoolGenius NFL survivor season planner shows them as a 72-percent win probability in Week 5, which happens to be their highest-listed win odds all season. Mike Macdonald has this team playing inspired football on both sides of the ball, and we don't like Daniel Jones' chances of winning against this defense or out-dueling Geno Smith and his litany of weapons on the road.
If Seattle isn't available in your remaining pick pool, consider taking Jayden Daniels and the Commanders to beat the Browns at home. Washington has been one of the most efficient offenses of the past decade, never mind this season, and Cleveland averages 151.5 passing yards and 16.5 points per game. These squads are in two different stratospheres, so don't hesitate to back the rookie over a defense with a banged-up Myles Garrett and a truly inept offense.
If you do have Seattle available, that might be your best bet this week. Washington still has Carolina on the horizon in Week 7, which PG lists as 73-percent win probability for the 'manders. The Seahawks don't have another 70-plus percent win probability until Week 12, and that's a tough divisional game against the aforementioned Cardinals. Kyler and MHJ could be in full flight by then. Another reminder to always look at the big picture and play the long game!
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