Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars preview Week 5: Things to watch

Cody Manning

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Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars preview Week 5: Things to watch image

The Indianapolis Colts will be on the road in Week 5, traveling to Duval, a place that has haunted them since 2014, to play the Jacksonville Jaguars.

The Colts have lost nine straight road games to the Jags, with eight coming in Duval County and one overseas when they traveled to London to face Jacksonville in 2016. 

The Jaguars swept the Colts in the 2023 season, so the last time Indy won in this series was on Oct. 16, 2022, just under two years ago.

This is an opportunity for Indianapolis to get over a 0.500 record, but can they shake off their past issues playing in Jacksonville? 

Here are five things to watch from the Colts on Sunday:

Colts vs. Jaguars Week 5 preview

1. Ending the drought in Duval County 

It’s fitting that spooky season has begun and the Colts start it off playing in a stadium that has been a haunted house to them since their last win in Jacksonville back in 2014. In the eight-game losing streak in Duval County, the Jaguars have outscored the Colts 242 to 97. 

20 points is the most that Indianapolis has scored in a single game, which happened three times during the eight-game skid. They were in the 2019, 2020, and 2023 contests. This means three of the eight losses in Jacksonville are responsible for 60 of the 97 points the Colts have scored in Duval County since 2015.  

This is how the scoring breaks down by each quarter in those eight matchups: 

 First QuarterSecond QuarterThird QuarterFourth Quarter
Jaguars27827360
Colts23391025

A consistent issue for the Colts in Jacksonville regardless of who has been the head coach, the quarterback, and how the rest of the roster is built, the entire team comes out lethargic and lacks a sense of urgency. 

In the games when they were supposed to win, they showed up expecting the Jags were going to lay down and let Indy win. A prime example of this was when Jacksonville fans dressed as clowns because their owner Shad Khan decided to keep their current general manager Trent Baalke.

For the Colts, they just had to win their season-final game to make the playoffs. This should have been a contest they won, but instead, just as it has been since 2015 in Duval County, what could go wrong, did go wrong, and they lost 26-11.

For this matchup, everything says Indianapolis should win. The Jaguars are 0-4 and the a report that Doug Pederson has lost his locker room. Which he and his players have denied.

Win or lose, it would be a positive to see the Colts play competitive football in Jacksonville and not look like they are going through the motions. Sunday will tell us if Shane Steichen has his team ready to go from the opening kickoff or if this will be another long day for Indianapolis in Duval County.    

2. Limiting Trevor Lawrence and Brian Thomas Jr. 

The one area that the Jacksonville offense can look to attack the Indy defense is down the field through the air. Per Next Gen Stats, The Colts have allowed 13.3 yards per attempt on downfield passes this season (fifth-most). But the positive is that they are just one of two teams not to allow a single downfield touchdown pass.

Attacking downfield is something that the Jags have been trying to do this season but just haven’t been successful at it. Per Next Gen Stats, Trevor Lawrence has attempted a downfield pass (10+ air yards) at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL (42.6%) but has completed just 21 of his 52 downfield attempts (40.4%, 10th-lowest).

The player to keep an eye on is Brian Thomas Jr., the first-round rookie receiver for Jacksonville is their deep threat. Per Next Gen Stats, Thomas Jr. leads all rookies in deep receptions (four) and receiving yards (140) this season. His 13.7 yards of average route depth rank third-deepest among rookie wide receivers.

In the first four games, Thomas Jr. has 17 catches for 275 yards and two touchdowns. He averages 16.2 yards per reception. It’s a good bet that Doug Pederson will want his offense to take advantage of Thomas Jr. down the field. 

The Colts have allowed Nico Collins (six catches, 117 yards), Rome Odunze (six catches, 112 yards, TD), and George Pickens (7 catches, 113 yards) to eat down the field. Julian Blackmon and Nick Cross will have to help the cornerbacks keep a check on Lawrence connecting with his rookie receiver. 

3. Can the passing attack take advantage of their matchup?

On a week where the Indy offense might be without Jonathan Taylor, can their passing attack help win this game with Anthony Richardson or Joe Flacco? The Jacksonville defense has allowed the second-most passing YPG (272.8), third-highest passing yards per play (7.3), and the third-highest EPA/Pass (+0.22). 

This is asking a passing attack from the Colts who have been inconsistent this season to find a rhythm and build upon what they did against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 4. For the season, Indianapolis has the 21st-highest passing YPG (194.5) and the 10th-lowest EPA/Pass (-0.14) but has the fifth-highest yards per pass (7.1). 

Against the Steelers, they finished with 225 passing yards, averaged 7.0 yards per pass, and had a +0.39 EPA/Pass. One thing that helped improve the passing efficiency was getting Michael Pittman Jr. more involved and having Josh Downs look like himself. 

MPJ accumulated 111 of his 113 receiving yards on five of his six receptions. With three of them resulting in 20+ yard gains.

Moving the chains on third downs was where Downs was vital in Week 4. Four of his eight receptions came on third-down situations, which led to first downs or a score. 

Whether it's Richardson or Flacco who is the starter on Sunday, Shane Steichen will have to have his passing attack continue to evolve and help put the team in a position to win this contest in the fourth quarter. 

4. Has the Indy run defense figured itself out?

The Indy rush defense was atrocious through the first two weeks of the season but looked much better over the last two weeks. They held the Chicago Bears underneath 100 rushing yards in Week 3. The Steelers finished with 122 rushing yards but 55 of those yards came from Justin Fields. 

For the season, the Colts have allowed the second-most rushing YPG (164.8) and the second-most 10+ yard runs (20). Their 4.4 rushing yards per play allowed is right in the middle among all teams in the NFL and have the fifth-best EPA/Rush (-0.14). 

Surprisingly, the Jags haven’t leaned into their rushing attack more despite being successful when they do go to the ground. They have the 13th-highest rushing YPG (126.3) but have the second-highest rushing yards per play (5.7), ninth-best Rush/EPA (+0.1), tied for the fifth-most 10+ yard runs (16), and the fourth-best team rushing success rate (50%). 

Their rushing attack is led by Travis Etienne Jr. but second-year back Tank Bigsby has been efficient when he has been given the opportunity. With the struggles of Trevor Lawrence this season, Doug Pederson could lean into his rushing attack to start this game to see if the last two weeks have been a fluke for the Colts or if he will need his quarterback to win this matchup. 

5. Will Trey Sermon and Tyler Goodson deliver?

Even if Jonathan Taylor ends up suiting up on Sunday, he will likely be limited and not handle his normal workload. This means that Shane Steichen will need his pair of backups to step up in Week 5. 

A positive is that the Colts have been in this scenario before. Last season against the Steelers, Trey Sermon and Tyler Goodson combined for 157 rushing yards, averaging 5.6 YPC in a win over Pittsburgh.

Sermon was the leading rusher of the game with 88 rushing yards on 17 carries. He picked up 55 of those yards on a crucial drive between the third and fourth quarter.

Sermon ran the ball 11 times for 69 yards and had the longest run of that contest (31 yards). 

For the Jaguars, their defense has allowed the 10th-lowest rushing YPG (107.3), tied for the fourth-lowest rushing yards per play (3.9), and the ninth-best team run stuff rate (18.3%). Per Next Gen Stats, Jacksonville has allowed -30 rushing yards over expected (sixth-fewest) and -6 first downs over expected (second-fewest) to designed RB rushes in 2024.

As I mentioned, the passing attack for the Colts may have to win this game on the offense side of the ball but it would help if they can get the ground game going against a stingy rush defense.

More Indianapolis Colts News
NFL picks, predictions Week 5: Colts vs. Jaguars
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Colts vs. Jaguars betting odds Week 5

Cody Manning

Cody Manning Photo

Cody Manning is a graduate of the University of Tampa’s Sport Management program. He spent time with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ Guest and Member Relations Game Day staff where he was a Team Leader and earned Difference Maker of the Year in 2017. During his time with the Bucs, he helped start Blitzalytics, a scouting and analytics media company. After that came to an end, he joined USA Today’s Colts Wire as a contributor in 2021. Outside of football, he is an avid WWE and Batman fan. You can find him on Twitter/X @CodyTalksNFL.