Paul George's contract negotiations have been anything but smooth thus far.
The nine-time All-Star had been seeking a maximum four-year extension valued at $221.1 million from the Clippers, per Bleacher Report's Eric Pincus. That is unlikely to happen, and it's opened the door to other teams trying to get the two-way star.
One of those is the Warriors, according to Substack's Marc Stein. He writes that there is "a growing feeling leaguewide" that George will pick up his $48.8 million player option, then force a trade. One of the teams in that running is the Warriors, who are "aggressively exploring trade options" with Chris Paul.
Could an opt-in-and-trade be a real possibility? Here are the obstacles that Golden State faces, and what an offer could look like.
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Making sense of Paul George to Warriors trade rumors
Second apron concerns mean losing Klay Thompson
The league's second apron rules in the new collective bargaining take full effect this summer, which makes it much more difficult for the Clippers to make a George trade.
LA is restricted from signing George to a new deal (or adding any players via sign-and-trade), but it can trade him if he opts into the last year of his current contract. The Clippers also can't take in more money than the $48.8 million that they would be sending out.
Making a trade with the Warriors even more complicated is that Golden State is also at risk of being in the first or second apron. That would make a trade between the two teams virtually impossible because of exact dollar-for-dollar salary matching restrictions.
For a George trade to happen then, the Warriors would have to shed some salary and get under the $178.7 million first apron. Letting Klay Thompson walk in free agency would be the easiest and most likely way to accomplish that goal.
Why Chris Paul needs to be part of the trade
Even if the Warriors got under the first apron, they would still have to send out at least $39 million in salary. Guaranteeing Chris Paul's $30 million salary gives them an expiring contract that is useful as a trade chip for that purpose.
Given those frameworks, there are a couple of different potential trade possibilities centered around Paul.
The perfect Klay Thompson to Warriors trade
The Ringer's Bill Simmons proposed this one on his self-titled podcast:
Warriors receive:
- Paul George
Clippers receive:
- Chris Paul
- Gary Payton II
- Jonathan Kuminga
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Why the Warriors say yes
At the age of 36, Stephen Curry is still a top-10 player who is good enough to build a championship team around. This might be the last year where that statement holds true. The Warriors may feel like they owe it to him to put together one last team that has enough talent to win it all.
George would be the second scorer that the team was desperately missing last season after Thompson's decline. He's a perfect No. 2 guy to slot next to Curry. He's a great 3-point shooter, a big defender who could help the Warriors return to their elite defensive levels of the past and he could also take some of the creation burden off Curry.
Losing Kuminga would certainly sting. The No. 7 pick in the 2021 NBA Draft had a breakout year, averaging 18.6 points per game after Jan. 1. But a Curry-George duo would inarguably give the team a better shot at maximizing the last few years of Curry's career.
Why the Clippers say yes
George holds a lot of leverage in this situation. He could opt out of his contract and walk to a team with cap space, giving the Clippers nothing in return. If they played ball and agreed to help him in an opt-in-and-trade scenario, then they could get a nice return in Kuminga and free up their books by taking in Paul and Payton's expiring salaries.
This Clippers team probably isn't good enough to win a championship. They are bleeding money, and they don't have any ways to improve their team due to the second apron. This would allow them to take a small step back while still adding three good players who could keep them competitive. And next summer in a better free agent class, they could take a swing at a bigger name with significant cap space to spend once Paul and Payton become free agents.
These two teams could also rope in a third team with cap space such as the Pistons, which would open up much more flexibility for the pieces that could be included. That might be the more likely option.
The most likely option, though, is that George remains with the Clippers. He shocked the world the last time he moved teams, so the predictable route may not mean much.
