This will be the first summer where the full second apron rules of the NBA's new collective bargaining agreement take effect.
That should lessen some of the movement of big names that we've become accustomed to in recent years. Sign-and-trades are going to be more difficult to pull off, and only six or seven teams have cap space to sign someone outright.
There will still be important free agency signings (led by LeBron James), but a lot of the biggest names are going to re-up with their current teams. That doesn't mean that there will be no movement, though.
Here are some predictions of where the top guys will go, and which will find a new home.
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NBA free agency predictions 2024
LeBron James will re-sign with the Lakers for two years, $100 million
James has a player option for $51.4 million that he will likely decline in order to seek a bigger deal. He's still an All-NBA caliber player that most teams would move heaven and earth to acquire if he showed any interest.
The Thunder, Cavaliers and Warriors could all make pushes for James this summer, but he loves living in Los Angeles. All signs point to him returning to the same contract structure that he signed last season. That would give him another fully guaranteed year and a player option to retain flexibility in the future.
James could also receive a no-trade clause by opting out of his deal and signing a fresh contract, which is a perk that he is rumored to be looking for, according to ESPN's Brian Windhorst.
If James did opt out, a new deal for him would start at a maximum of around $50 million. He is eligible for a maximum contract length of three years. Look for him to sign a two or three-year deal with the Lakers at around that $50 million annual amount.
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Paul George will sign with the Clippers for three years, $155 million
George has a $48.8 million player option that he has yet to decide on. He has been seeking a maximum four-year extension valued at $221.1 million, per Bleacher Report's Eric Pincus.
The Clippers have paid deep into the luxury tax for years, and they have signaled that they are cutting back on that blank check approach. Kawhi Leonard took a slight reduction in his maximum extension, signing at three years and $153 million. George's negotiations have dragged on much longer.
There is certainly a possibility that George could change teams. He is still an All-Star who slides into every team in the league with his elite two-way play. But he wanted to return home to Southern California back in 2019, and he seems very comfortable on the team.
This ultimately boils down to money, and the two sides should be able to meet in the middle somewhere. The Clippers wanted to avoid that fourth year to Leonard. They can win the negotiation by doing the same with George while giving him a high average annual salary.
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Isaiah Hartenstein will sign with the Thunder for three years, $65 million
Hartenstein was a breakout star for the Knicks, excelling in the starter role when Mitchell Robinson went down with injuries. He was an All-Defensive caliber center who gladly did the dirty work on offense, setting screens, rebounding and making great reads in Tom Thibodeau's system.
With Robinson scheduled to be back on the team, Hartenstein may be the odd man out. The Knicks are limited to offering him just $16.2 million next season, which is less than he could get in the open market.
Hartenstein has made only $13.4 million in his career, so he's probably not giving New York a hometown discount. The Thunder are in need of a big man, and he's the best free-agent center who will be available. Oklahoma City has the cap space to sign him.
The average starter makes around $20 million, so Hartenstein's new deal should fall within that range.
Klay Thompson will sign with the Magic for three years, $70 million
There have been signs of discontent between Thompson and the Warriors. He deleted all traces of the team from his Instagram account, and the team has hinted that negotiations may be tough after the two sides couldn't come to an agreement on an extension during the year.
The Warriors are trying to get out of the tax, and that may mean moving on from the sharpshooter.
If Thompson does walk, then there are a couple of teams that make sense as suitors. He would look great gunning 3s on the Thunder, who have the cap space to sign him. More likely are the Magic, who also have cap space and a desperate need for shooting.
Thompson grades out at a starting salary value of $19 million next season in my salary model. The Magic will probably have to pay a premium over that price to lure him away from the Warriors. Three years and $70 million sounds right.
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DeMar DeRozan will return to the Bulls at three years, $100 million
DeRozan turned down a two-year, $80 million extension offer last season, per NBC Sports Chicago's KC Johnson. He's still a great player at the age of 34, but how much time does he realistically have left? That $40 million annual average value is more than he is likely going to get now.
DeRozan is also a weird fit for most contending teams. The 76ers make sense as a possible landing spot, but his post game might clog up areas that Joel Embiid likes to work with. Other contenders don't have the money or trade flexibility to get him.
The Bulls are one of the only places where he can get his money. He has been a great soldier for them, and he wants to return. They look like they may be pivoting with the trade of Alex Caruso, and he is a terrible fit alongside Josh Giddey. But perhaps Chicago signs him, hoping they can move him mid-season for a good package.
The Bulls should only give DeRozan two years at his age, which means he will likely get three. Hopefully, there will only be partial guarantees on that third year.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope will opt out to sign with the 76ers at four years, $100 million
The Nuggets are in a very difficult spot with Caldwell-Pope, who has a $15.4 million player option that he will likely decline. They don't have any way to replace him, but they will face an exorbitant tax bill and second apron issues if they give him what he will command as a free agent.
That opens the door to other teams making a run at one of the best 3-and-D starters out there. The 76ers are flush with a projected $56 million in cap space, per Spotrac, and general manager Daryl Morey has always valued that type of player.
Caldwell-Pope has a $22.1 million estimated value in my salary model. He is likely going to want four years given that at the age of 31, this is the last big contract that he will be getting. That puts him at around four years and $100 million on a new deal as the perfect piece around Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey.
