Are Nottingham Forest safe from relegation? How Luton Town could survive on Premier League final day

The 2023/24 Premier League season has been an eventful one for Nottingham Forest, on and off the pitch.

Nuno Espirito Santo took over as manager when Steve Cooper was sacked last December, and the Portuguese coach has battled the threat of relegation amid a Premier League punishment for financial rule breaches and a peculiar public war of words over the standard of refereeing.

Nuno's men had looked on course for an impressive win over Chelsea last weekend, but two quickfire goals from Raheem Sterling and Nicolas Jackson turned the game on its head and cut short the celebrations inside the City Ground. For many fans, that would usually mean a week of great anxiety before the final day of the league season, when their fight against relegation will be settled.

However, even though they are not mathematically safe from the drop, Forest and their supporters will not feel too concerned ahead of their game with Burnley on matchday 38. The Sporting News explains why.

MORE: How goal difference works and why it's so important at this stage of a season

Are Nottingham Forest safe from relegation?

Officially, Nottingham Forest can still be relegated — but it would take a remarkable set of circumstances for that to transpire.

Had they held on to their 2-1 win over Chelsea, or even to a 2-2 draw, Forest would have been mathematically safe before the final day. Due to their 3-2 defeat, that's not the case.

On the final matchday, Nottingham Forest head to Burnley (who are already relegated), while Luton Town host Fulham. The results of those games will determine who drops into the Championship.

Premier League table 2023/24: How things stand at the bottom

*Deducted 10 points for breach of profit and sustainability rules. Punishment was reduced to six points on appeal but were then deducted a further two points for another breach on April 8.

**Deducted four points for breach of profit and sustainability rules on Mar. 18.

Basically, Forest are still overwhelming favourites to stay up. They only need a draw against Burnley to guarantee their safety, and even if they lose, Luton would have to defeat Fulham by an implausible scoreline to stay up.

If Nottingham Forest defeat or draw with Burnley, they are safe. There is nothing Luton can do.

If Nottingham Forest lose to Burnley, then Luton have a very slim chance. If Rob Edwards' side can defeat Fulham, they will be level on 29 points with Forest. Things will then come down to goal difference, and that's where Forest boast a huge advantage: they are 12 goals better off than Luton after 37 games, meaning Luton require a 13-goal swing if they are to overtake Nuno's team in that category.

As an example, Luton would need to beat Fulham 6-0 and hope that Forest lose to Burnley by seven goals for them to survive. It's fair to say this is a touch unlikely.

What about Nottingham Forest's points deduction?

Forest were deducted four points for breaching the Premier League's Profit and Sustainability rules. The club appealed against the decision, but unsuccessfully. That means the deduction has already been applied to their points total, so Luton cannot expect any further help in that regard.

Premier League 2023/24 TV channels, live streams

UK: Matches are carried across Sky Sports and TNT Sports streaming and TV platforms, with select matches on Amazon Prime. TNT's streaming partner is discovery+.

USA: Select matches are televised on USA Network (English) and Telemundo or Universo (Spanish), and all three channels can be streamed on Fubo. The rest of the matches are streamed on NBC platform Peacock for subscribers.

Canada: Every Premier League game this season is live streaming exclusively via Fubo in Canada, with discounts currently at more than 9% for annual plans and more than 20% for quarterly and monthly plans. 

Australia: Fans in Australia can stream every match live and on demand on Optus Sport.

India: Star Sports network has the rights to show Premier League matches in India. As well as an English broadcast on Star Sports Select, select matches will be available via regional feeds on Star Sports 3 (in Bengali, English, Kannada, Malayalam), Star Sports 1 (Bangla) and Star Sports 1 (Tamil).