Week 7 of the NFL season comes to a close with a divisional clash tonight, when MVP candidate Josh Allen and the Bills (3-2) visit four-time MVP Aaron Rodgers and the Jets (2-3) in the Meadowlands (8:15 p.m. ET).
Both these teams have hit the skids since late September. Buffalo got rocked by reigning MVP Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, then lost a close one to 2023 Rookie of the Year C.J. Stroud and the Texans.
The Jets have dropped consecutive close games to the Broncos and Vikings, prompting the termination of head coach Robert Saleh and the removal of offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett as play-caller.
MORE WEEK 6: Odds, lines | Best bets, top props | DFS sleepers, values
Needless to say, tonight's AFC East tilt could be of massive importance to the eventual playoff picture. With the Patriots at 1-5 and riding a rough-start rookie in QB Drake Maye and the Dolphins 2-3 with no timetable for oft-concussed QB Tua Tagovailoa to come off IR, this division feels like a two-team race right now.
One game could ultimately decide the division three months from now. Thus, the result of this one could wind up being a deciding factor in the fate of the AFC East. Translation: tonight should be must-see TV and a dang good one to bet.
Looking to place some high-value wagers and player props? Here's the Sporting News' betting preview and prediction for Bills vs. Jets on Monday Night Football.
Bills vs. Jets odds, spread, over/under
All odds and data courtesy of Sports Interaction.
- Spread: Bills -1 (-110) | Jets +1 (-110)
- Over/Under: OVER 41 (-110) | UNDER 41 (-110)
- Moneyline: Bills -120 | Jets +100
This game is basically a pick'em, with the Jets getting a point despite being home at Met Life Stadium. The low over/under suggests the game will end Buffalo 21-20.
MORE BILLS-JETS: DFS single-game and showdown lineups
Should you bet the Bills against the spread vs. the Jets?
We're saying no. The only way we're backing the Bills on the road against an elite defense is if we're getting 7.5 points in a teaser. The 77-percent of SIA bettors who have taken Buffalo here seem to forget that the Bills have averaged just 15 points per game over the past two weeks, while New York has allowed just 16.5 PPG.
Buffalo is also banged up, with top wideout Khalil Shakir and lead running back James Cook both listed as questionable the entire week leading up to this game. And the Bills have been one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, giving up over 153 ground yards per game over the past three contests and 168 rushing YPG on the road.
That plays right into the Jets' hands, as they will have stud back Breece Hall and rookie RB Braelon Allen ready to rumble into their divisional foes. One would imagine that interim head coach Jeff Ulbrich and new play-called Todd Downing will be making it a priority to establish the run.
Priority No. 2 will likely be to make Josh Allen uncomfortable. The gun-slinger always poses problems for divisional foes, as evidenced by his 7-4 record against Gang Green. However, he does have 12 TDs and 11 interceptions against the Jets during his career, so this D might already have the blueprint for how to defend him and force him into mistakes.
If you really can't see yourself backing the Jets, we get it. Consider a teaser for the Bills and the UNDER so you're tacking on points for both, buying yourself some insurance and avoiding any close sweats on either front. But remember, weird stuff always seems to happen on Monday Night Football, and the underdog and under always find a way to make things interesting.
Our Pick: Jets +1 (-110) or teaser with Bills +6.5
Should you bet the Jets-Bills OVER?
We simply can't imagine rooting for an OVER on this game. It seems like a futile measure. The Jets have one of the best defenses in the NFL, and the Bills have been clunky over the past two games and clearly need Khalil Shakir and James Cook to return to 100 percent.
Follow the trends from the past few weeks. New York has struggled to get off to strong starts, averaging just 2.8 points per first quarter and turning the ball over early and often. Buffalo often has issues finishing off drives or turning long possessions into points. Sauce Gardner and D.J. Read will not make life easy for Allen and company tonight.
If you're going with the Bills' teaser route, add UNDER 48.5 to the mini-parlay so you can get Bills +6.5 and the total UNDER 48.5. That's a very doable SGP at -135, which would net you about $75 in profit if you hit on a $100 wager.
Our Pick: UNDER 41 (-110) or UNDER 48.5 with the teaser (-135)
Final score prediction: Jets 20, Bills 17
Top player prop for 49ers vs. Seahawks
Breece Hall, RB, Jets: Anytime TD scorer (-105)
Hall has endured a rough start to the 2024 season, averaging just 3.0 yards per carry and scoring just three TDs through five games. That's a severe disappointment for one of the best backs in the league. However, in the wake of the coaching changes and facing one of the worst run-stopping units in the NFL, it's time for Breece Lightning to strike. We like Hall to go OVER his rushing projection of 55.5 yards (-105) and to score a touchdown (-105). You could even parlay them together to get attractive +195 odds for a potential MNF triple-up!
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