Queensland will host New South Wales in a State of Origin decider with the Maroons aiming for their third-straight series victory.
Billy Slater’s side swept to a win in the opening match of the series in Sydney as the Blues were reduced to 12 men for the majority of the game after Joseph Suaalii was sent off for a high shot.
However, Michael Maguire responded to the heavy defeat with some team changes and a much-improved performance in Game II at the MCG, as they levelled the series in style.
NSW have the weight of history tipped against them though at Suncorp Stadium with them winning just two of 13 deciders that have been hosted in Queensland.
Below are The Sporting News' predictions and best bets for Game III.
All odds via TAB.
MORE STATE OF ORIGIN COVERAGE
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- NSW Blues team list for Game III
- QLD Maroons team list for Game III
- State of Origin weather report for decider
Lomax to fly high for the Blues up in Brisbane
-Mark Molyneux
The Maroons made light work of NSW in the opening game as Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow feasted on a defensive edge that was left in disarray following Suaalii's dismissal.
The 38-10 demolition meant Slater's side rolled into Melbourne looking to wrap up their third series win in a row.
However, a Mitch Moses-inspired Blues outfit then squared things up at the MCG as they piled on 34 unanswered points in a historic first-half drubbing.
The first two matches have been distinctly one-sided affairs so far but that should change in Brisbane with the shield on the line.
There's been 18 tries scored so far this series with the attacking talent across the backlines of NSW and QLD doing the majority of the damage.
In fact, a Ben Hunt double in Game I and a try apiece to Jeremiah Nanai and Liam Martin in Game II is the only time forwards have crossed the stripe this year.
'The Hammer' and Zac Lomax are the two players who have scored tries in both games and will likely be a main source of points once again as they look to lead the charge for their respective states.
BEST BET: Zac Lomax anytime try scorer ($2.15)
VALUE BET: Valentine Holmes first try scorer ($10)
SAME GAME MULTI: Zac Lomax to score a try, Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow to score a try ($4.90)
Moses parts the red sea in Origin masterclass
-Chris Danks
Valentine Holmes’ Origin decider record - 3 games, 3 wins, 5 tries - is already imposing and he’s a good bet to add to his try-scoring tally as he shifts to the wing to make way for Origin specialist Dane Gagai.
How Billy Slater uses Kalyn Ponga will go a long way to deciding who wins Origin 3. If Ponga can repeat his Origin 3, 2022 destruction - 247 metres, 25 runs, 15 tackle busts, 1 try - NSW may be too stretched to contain Walsh and Ponga at the same time. Will they both stick to their favoured left side?
However, the Blues proved in game 2 that off the back of an imposing forwards performance and a zoned-in Mitch Moses kicking game, this NSW team seems up for the challenge.
BEST BET: Valentine Holmes 1st, 2nd or 3rd try scorer ($3.75)
VALUE BET: Mitchell Moses Player of the Match ($7)
SAME GAME MULTI: NSW to win, Kalyn Ponga to score a try ($9.50)
NSW to grind out narrow win on hostile ground
- Tom Naghten
Once the site of Brisbane's primary cemetery, Suncorp Stadium, née Lang Park, has been a fitting backdrop for Queensland's dominance in series deciders.
Year after year, the hopes of a state have perished as the Maroons condemn their southern rivals to another 12 months of misery.
Since Andrew Johns inspired New South Wales to a series victory in 2005, Suncorp has hosted six series-deciding games. Six times the Blues hopes have been left dead and buried.
This time, will it be NSW mourning yet another defeat, or will Queensland's stranglehold meet its end on the quite literally hallowed turf.
What's that? You want a preview for the game and not some graveyard references? Fine.
It will be a tight first half, Queensland potentially getting the better of it with Reece Walsh playing a key role but the Blues will get on top off the back of their forward depth and bigger bench, eventually grinding out a close victory.
BEST BET: NSW 1-12 ($3.50)
VALUE BET: Half/Full Double - QLD/NSW ($7)
SAME GAME MULTI: Bradman Best to score a try, NSW 1-12 ($10)
Talented Blues to battle Maroons and the history books
- Joshua Mayne
Considering recent form and comparing the team lists on paper, NSW can absolutely take this match out.
However, it's tough to ignore the Blues' history in deciders, particularly in enemy territory.
Of the 22 deciding Games 3s in Origin history, Queensland has won 15, while NSW has emerged victorious in just five.
To make the task even more daunting, the Blues' last victory in a decider in Brisbane came in 2005.
This current NSW team is well-balanced and has the advantage when it comes to bench depth, so there's no denying they can snag a win.
History can be hard to overturn, though.
BEST BET: Either team by 8 or less ($2.15)
VALUE BET: Neither team score 20+ ($5.00)
SAME GAME MULTI: Dane Gagai to score a try, Stephen Crichton to score a try ($11.00)
