When Collingwood won the 2023 AFL premiership with an improving list under a second-year senior coach, many had tipped them to be near the top of the ladder for seasons to come.
As it turned out, the Pies, barring a miracle in round 24, won't be there when the whips are cracking in 2024.
Collingwood currently sit in 10th spot heading into the last round, although they are effectively 200 points behind eighth-placed Carlton when it comes to percentage.
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But is Collingwood's season to be considered a failure, or does it follow a recent pattern which points to the competitiveness of the league?
For the past four seasons, the reigning premier hasn't figured in any significant capacity at the end of the year.
Last season, Geelong finished in 12th having destroyed the Swans to capture the 2022 premiership.
The year before that, Melbourne looked well placed to contend for the flag but slumped to a straight-sets finals exit after finishing the home-and-away campaign in second.
Earlier, the Tigers finished 12th in 2021 having taken out the Gabba grand final against the Cats.
Richmond, in fact, are the most recent team to have backed up premiership success with a sustained push the following year, defending their 2019 crown to win the competition in 2020.
So, why have teams found it hard to go again after summiting the mountain in recent times?
The easy explanation is workload and preparation - while most teams are enjoying their holidays, the grand finalists are playing their most intense games of the season and in turn their pre-seasons begin later than their rivals.
This combination can result in other teams gaining precious ground on them, while the likelihood of injuries with a reduced training base is also potentially increased.
However, runners-up, who also play deep into September and have a delayed start to pre-season, just without the fond memories of success, have generally fared better than the premiers the following season in recent years.
Brisbane currently sit in fifth spot, Sydney finished eighth in 2023, as did the Bulldogs the year prior, while Geelong ended up third and lost a preliminary final in 2021.
In any case, playing in a grand final the preceding year clearly hasn't been a great predictor for success over the past four seasons.
In a competition which is striving for the perception of equality, Collingwood's performance this season, as well as those earlier mentioned, make a strong case for the league's fairness from year to year.
