Here's who will win the Nia Jax, Bayley WWE SummerSlam match

KD Drummond

Here's who will win the Nia Jax, Bayley WWE SummerSlam match image

The SmackDown rivalry is finally coming to a head. The WWE Women's Championship is on the line as part of the seven-match card for SummerSlam 2024 on Saturday. Nia Jax earned her title shot by winning Queen of the Ring, and has been stalking her prey ever since. Things are likely to get crazy in Cleveland after the SmackDown brand has recently worked to ramp up the feud with tag-team matches and square offs between Bayley and Michin, and Jax and up-and-coming star Tiffany Stratton. 

Now the two wrestlers will have their one-on-one face-off with the title belt on the line. 

Matchup History: Bayley 127 wins, Nia Jax 17 wins, Team-ups, draws or both defeated 10

To say these wrestlers are familiar with each other is quite the understatement. The rivalry cooled down for several years, but the work remains. They've been in the ring together a whopping 154 times, plus there was a Nia Jax match where Bayley was a commentator.  Here's a look at their last 10 interactions.

July 19, 2024 SmackDown: Nia Jax & Tiffany Stratton def. Bayley & Michin
January 27, 2024 Royal Rumble: Bayley wins 30-Woman Royal Rumble
January 28, 2023 Royal Rumble: Rhea Ripley wins 30-Woman Royal Rumble
May 21, 2021 SmackDown: Bayley, Jax, Shayna Baszler def. Bianca BelAir, Natalya & Tamina in 6-person tag
February 19, 2021 SmackDown: BelAir, Reginald, Sasha Banks def. Bayley, Jax, Baszler in 6-person tag
January 31, 2021 Royal Rumble: BelAir wins 30-Woman Royal Rumble
November 22, 2020 Survivor Series: Lacey Evans, Lana, Jax, Peyton Royce, Baszler def. Bayley, BelAir, Liv Morgan, Natalya, Ruby Riott
September 4, 2020 SmackDown: Jax, Baszler def. Bayley, Sasha Banks
August 30, 2020 Payback: Jax, Baszler def. Bayley, Sasha Banks
April 7, 2019 Wrestlemania: Billie Kay & Peyton Royce def. Bayley & Banks, Beth Pheonix & Natalya, Jax & Tamina in Fatal 4-Way

Match Odds

As of 9:00 am ET Friday August 2, Jax is a -170 favorite on BetOnline. Bayley is +130 to win the belt.

Match Predictions

Predicted match length: 15 minutes

Will There Be Interference? The underlying story here is how Stratton, winner of the Money in the Bank cash-in contract, has been close to using it on multiple occasions to try and take the title, and put her interest above those of her storyline shepard. The easy storyline is that Bayley defends her title, Stratton jumps in to help Jax beat her down post-match and then once they get far enough up the ramp that Jax can't catch her, she runs back to the ring, cashes in the contract and takes the title.

Winner: Bayley, then Stratton.

Storyline Result: Bayley's title run has been underwhelming and she's been vocal about having more character depth in the women's division storyline, so here may be their opportunity to have her involved in something that doesn't involve a belt. Jax and Stratton becomes a feud.

Tiffany Stratton
Getty Images

Shadow Bookings Prediction: My preferred playing out of this is that Jax defeats Bayley to win the title. Stratton doesn't cash in here but instead cashes in after the Ripley-Morgan match, takes that championship and moves over to the RAW brand. Now that pop would be incredible.




KD Drummond

KD Drummond Photo

KD Drummond is an old-school, NWA-over-WWF wrestling fan who came up watching wrestling on DC20 at 5 p.m. every weeknight, and Starrcade and the Great American Bash pay-per-views. An NFL writer and editor since 2010, turning his attention to his re-emerged fascination into the wrestling world was a no-brainer. Heel turns and storylines, beware… if they aren’t top notch, they will be mocked! Follow him on Twitter/X: KDDrummondNFL.