Down to two Stanley Cup finalists, we already have a pretty clear picture on who might be named this year's playoff MVP.
The Conn Smythe Trophy, the highest individual postseason honor bestowed upon a player, is arguably the NHL's most prestigious award, next to that big, shiny piece of silver hardware a lucky few will hoist at tournament's end.
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Since the Conn Smythe was first awarded in 1965, all but five recipients have been a member of the team that won the Stanley Cup, and no player has ever won it without playing in the Final. Those trends won't change this year (sorry, Mark Scheifele), but we could see an anomaly if Alex Ovechkin hoists his elusive Cup as a rare non-center/goalie MVP winner.
That said, the unlikely run of the Golden Knights has produced a clear-cut favorite in goalie Marc-Andre Fleury. Even is Vegas falls short against the Capitals, it's possible Fleury is still standing as the most deserving recipient, depending on if he can keep up his torrid pace in net.
With the Flower in full bloom, Sporting News ranks the top five other players deemed to have the best shot at plucking him from the top.
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6. William Karlsson, Golden Knights
Karlsson got off to a slow start to his playoffs against the Kings, but he's looked more like his 43-goal self of late, potting two against the Jets. He's up to 13 points in 15 games, well off the leaders, but less quantifiable contributions away from the puck and on defense make Karlsson arguably the most important forward on the Golden Knights (no forward remaining in the players averages more ice time: 21:58). If there's a player waiting in the weeds to take over a series and launch himself into the MVP conversation, it's "Wild Bill."
5. Jon Marchessault, Golden Knights
Marchessault is the gift that keeps on giving for the Golden Knights, one third of what could be considered the top line of the entire playoff field. He announced himself as a serious MVP candidate during the conference finals, contributing four goals and seven points in five games against the Jets. He's eighth in playoff scoring with 18 points.
4. Evgeny Kuznetsov, Capitals
Kuznetsov, this year's playoff scoring leader through three rounds, is responsible for the Capitals' biggest goal in the last 30 years and vanquishing the hated Penguins at once. It was the most impactful of his 11 goals and 24 points in 19 games so far, but it seems they've all come in a timely manner while leading all Caps forwards in time on ice (21:31).
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3. Braden Holtby, Capitals
Other than Ovechkin's continued excellence, Holtby is the one who's most made the Capitals click. Quite literally, you can pinpoint the moment their playoff campaign turned from abject first-round disaster to the cusp of the Stanley Cup Final, when Holtby took over the crease from Phillip Grubauer in Game 2 against the Blue Jackets and stabilized it. He's gone 12-6 since with a .924 save percentage (.935 at even strength), including back-to-back shutouts to close out the Lightning.
2. Alex Ovechkin, Capitals
Ovechkin has always been a great postseason performer, regardless of the narratives you've been spoon-fed in the past. This year, he's following up an age-defying comeback during the regular season with what may already go down as a career-defining playoff run, finally alleviated from his Penguins burden. Ovechkin had a hand in four game-winning goals, including his goal 62 seconds into Game 7 of the conference finals that sent a message he isn't messing around. It all adds up to 22 points in 19 games, a new career high. If Washington wins the Cup, it will have been because of its captain's vindication tour.
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1. Marc-Andre Fleury, Golden Knights
Outside of a first-period slip-up in Game 1 of the West finals, Fleury's play in net for the Golden Knights has been nearly perfect as he rebuilds his reputation as a postseason dud from his days in Pittsburgh. Anything less than a .947 save percentage and it's likely Vegas' improbable playoff run falls apart in Los Angeles or San Jose or Winnipeg. Instead, the Flower continues to put up historic numbers. His .956 save percentage at even strength is absurd this deep into the postseason, and per Sean Tierney, is trending 18 goals saved above the average tender.
Good morning,
— Sean Tierney (@ChartingHockey) May 25, 2018
Marc-Andre Fleury has prevented ~18 goals more than an average goalie would have in his spot.
That's about 14 goals better than Braden Holtby, who is third-best in the playoffs. pic.twitter.com/UAnluEFXGH
If Fleury keeps it up, he'll finish near or above two other legendary playoff goalie runs this century — Jonathan Quick and Jean-Sebastien Giguere. Both, of course, won the Conn Smythe — and, more importantly, the Stanley Cup.
