Eight teams are left to compete for the Stanley Cup after the first round of the NHL playoffs.
The five with the highest first-round probabilities to win the Cup proceeded to the next round. San Jose’s sweep over Anaheim was the most improbable outcome of the simulations. Otherwise, the first round played out generall as predicted.
AccuScore has simulated each of the 2018 Stanley Cup playoffs second-round series 10,000 times to come up with predictions to reach the conference finals as well as win the Stanley Cup. Below are the probabilities and Vegas odds of advancing through the NHL playoffs and how they have changed.
GOLDEN STANDARD
How Vegas became the most successful expansion team in sports history
AccuScore's odds to win Stanley Cup
Probability vs. weekly % change
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 20.9 | +3.4 |
| Winnipeg Jets | 14.7 | +6.7 |
| Nashville Predators | 14.5 | +1.0 |
| Vegas Golden Knights | 11.5 | +6.5 |
| Boston Bruins | 10.7 | +1.7 |
| Washington Capitals | 9.5 | +3.5 |
| San Jose Sharks | 9.4 | +5.4 |
| Pittsburgh Penguins | 8.8 | +2.3 |
SN STAFF PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS
Eastern Conference | Western Conference | Stanley Cup
Boston secured its second round berth with a Game 7 win over Toronto. Now they face biggest favorite - at least in the Eastern Conference. AccuScore predicts there won’t be Game 7 in this series, as the Lightning are about 70 percent favorites to win. The most probable outcome is 4-1.
The Capitals and the Penguins meet in the playoffs for a third straight year. Like last season, everyone is hoping for a Game 7 in this series, but it looks like Washington would have a slight edge this time. The Caps' win probability is 53 percent while the Penguins own a 47 percent chance to make it to the next round.
Maybe the most interesting matchup during this round is the one between the Predators and the Jets. Both teams are capable of making deep runs in the playoffs, but only one can go to the conference finals. This series is another coin flip, but right now it looks like Winnipeg has a slight edge over defending Western Conference champion Nashville.
The Golden Knights and the Sharks each swept their first-round opponents. This time, it is more than probable that we need more than four games. Actually, simulations show the most probable outcome has Vegas wining in seven games. The series win probability for the Golden Knights is just under 53 percent, so they have reasonable chances to advance their Cinderella season.
Stanley Cup prediction
Tampa Bay is still the favorite to win the Stanley Cup. Winnipeg and Vegas improved their chances with convincing wins during the first round of the playoffs. It looks a bit surprising that defending champion Pittsburgh has the lowest probability right now, but the variation in their performance is due to such a strong showing from Tampa Bay and the rest of the East field, which impacts the Penguins' Cup chances.
When comparing odds to the probabilities from the simulations, the Lightning still have the best value for betting to win it all.
AccuScore's Stanley Cup probabilities will be updated each round during the playoffs.