The FIFA World Cup is largely regarded as the biggest sporting events across the globe. Taking place once every four years, everyone from the most dedicated football fan to the casual supporter tunes in to enjoy the action.
As a result, the World Cup is also one of the most popular betting events in the world. With a boom in sports wagering access in the United States over recent years, there's expected to be a heavy volume of betting on the World Cup both in the U.S. and around the world.
Defending champions France will look to become the first nation to repeat as champions since Brazil in 1962, a notably difficult task. Brazil are the favorites heading into the tournament, with fellow South American side Argentina expected to do big things in Lionel Messi's last World Cup.
There are also many unknown teams to scout, with players and coaches many haven't heard of before.
As fans look to enjoy all the World Cup action, The Sporting News brings you an overview of which teams could make some noise and which teams could be in danger of fizzling out.
MORE: Follow along throughout the World Cup with Sporting News daily best bets & predictions
World Cup betting tips
Betting the World Cup can be different from regular soccer betting in more than a few ways provided the quirkiness of the group stage and the unpredictability of the knockout pairings. Below are a few handy tips to keep in mind.
1. Don't go searching for upsets
While it can be fun to pick which top teams will go down early, for the most part the World Cup is 'chalky' and typically quite elementary through the early stages of competition.
Sure, there will always be one or two favorites that will disappoint, but most will make the knockout stage. Attempting to find the one team that will fall apart to cash in big can be a fool's errand. While value still matters, don't shy away from minus odds like you might while betting soccer on a daily basis.
The World Cup isn't quite like March Madness. The best teams often win, especially early, and the gulf in talent between the top sides and those just happy to be there usually shines through.
MORE: A beginner's guide to betting on soccer
2. Follow situations
While keeping the previous point in mind, it's also important to know a team's situation and to follow the various qualification scenarios.
This will mainly come into play on the final group stage matchday, when some teams will have already qualified for a spot in the knockout stage. Those teams will often rest players or tone down the aggression, as injuries can spell doom in the later rounds.
Conversely, teams fighting for their lives in the group stage will be extra aggressive and play with an added flair, knowing they must secure a result to stay afloat. These teams can be ones to watch, especially if they are matched up against an opponent who has little to play for.
MORE: Who will finish top scorer at the World Cup? How to bet the Golden Boot
3. Watch for trends
As the tournament drags on and the knockout stages progress, the margins get thinner and the ability to call a winner in matches becomes increasingly difficult. This is where eagle-eyed fans can begin to find openings.
Keep an eye out for how teams succeed at scoring goals, or in what ways they're vulnerable when conceding them. The ability to read how teams match up comes in handy, especially in the latter stages, and while one top team might be slightly "better" than another, they could be facing a team that exploits their weakest link.
For example, if a team is adept at creating chances on set-pieces, see how their upcoming opponents perform while defending dead ball situations. If a team is passive with its defending and pressure in midfield, check out whether their opponents feature ball progression as one of their strengths.
Lastly, form can be a factor at the World Cup: What is true in one match will likely carry over into the next one given teams are playing every 3-4 days. While overall talent can shine through over a long league season that runs for months, tournaments that are staged across a few weeks can see in-form teams rise up above talented ones, especially in games which see the opposing squads evenly matched.
MORE: 2022 World Cup group betting guide
World Cup odds
Odds via BetMGM (USA) & Sports Interaction (Canada) as of Nov. 17, 2022.
The 2022 FIFA World Cup is here and the echelons of teams in the tournament have been established by the betting market with favorites, underdogs, and everyone in between.
Additionally, odds are out for all of the first round of group stage matches for fans to peruse.
World Cup favorites
- Favorites: Brazil (+350), Argentina (+500), France (+700)
Brazil are the pre-tournament betting favorites to win the 2022 World Cup, and it's no surprise why. Tite has one of the deepest squads in recent World Cup memory, led by world-class attacker Neymar who's in great form at PSG.
France and Argentina are behind them, also given a great chance to emerge victorious. While the defending champion French team is battling several injuries, Argentina appear rejuvenated. Lionel Messi picked up his first-ever major trophy in the summer of 2021 winning the Copa America, and now he will be gunning for the first World Cup trophy of his illustrious playing career.
World Cup longshots
- Longshots: Saudi Arabia (+60000), Costa Rica (+60000), Iran (+50000)
Asian sides Saudi Arabia and Iran are among the biggest longshots of the tournament, with the latter part of the USA's group. It's surprising to see Iran at such long odds, given they are ranked 20th in the world, far from the lowest ranked side at the tournament.
Costa Rica will be happy just to be in Qatar after needing to win an intercontinental playoff to make it following their early stumbles in North American qualifying.
2022 FIFA World Cup betting favorites
The USA (+10000 / 90.90) and Canada (+25000 / 125.00) are not considered contenders to hoist the trophy.
Both will do well to simply escape from difficult groups. The USA drew England, Wales, and Iran in Group B, while Canada have No. 2-ranked Belgium, 2018 finalists Croatia, and a tricky Moroccan side in Group F.
| Nation | BetMGM (USA) |
Sports Interaction (Canada) |
|---|---|---|
| Brazil | +350 | 3.11 |
| Argentina | +500 | 4.29 |
| France | +700 | 5.19 |
| England | +800 | 5.80 |
| Spain | +800 | 5.82 |
| Germany | +1000 | 7.58 |
| Netherlands | +1400 | 8.23 |
| Portugal | +1400 | 10.57 |
| Belgium | +1400 | 11.75 |
| Denmark | +2800 | 17.84 |
| Uruguay | +4000 | 25.05 |
| Croatia | +4000 | 31.10 |
World Cup picks, group winners and qualifiers
The 2022 FIFA World Cup is sure to be unpredictable given the unprecedented timing during the season (November-December) and the new setting (first World Cup in the Middle East).
The Sporting News brings you a pre-tournament look at who could make waves and who could disappoint.
Odds via BetMGM (USA) & Sports Interaction (Canada) as of Nov. 17, 2022.
Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup?
- Pick to win the World Cup: Brazil (+350 / 3.11)
As we stated before, there's no reason to shy away from the betting favorites. While the overall pre-tournament favorite doesn't always win, there's plenty of reason to believe that will be the case this year.
This Brazil squad is not only the deepest at this year's tournament, it's one of the deepest and most talented groups of players in World Cup history. Two of the world's top five goalkeepers are on the team, and the attack features world-class players such as Neymar (below), Vinicius Jr, Gabriel Jesus, Antony, Richarlison, Raphinha and Rodrygo.
Every other team has flaws, but this Brazil team has very few, if any. Should manager Tite fall short of hoisting what would be Brazil's record sixth World Cup trophy, it would prove a massive disappointment.
MORE: Overview of the Brazil squad at the 2022 FIFA World Cup
World Cup betting favorite to avoid
- Stay away from: France (+700 / 5.19)
The injuries for France are looking more and more devastating as the World Cup nears.
Already confirmed to be without starters N'Golo Kante, Paul Pogba, and Mike Maignan, Les Bleus were forced to replace Presnel Kimpembe and Christopher Nkunku, while star forward Karim Benzema is less than 100 percent, missing recent Real Madrid games due to fitness concerns.
The defending champions are still a strong squad, but even the deepest units can only withstand so much punishment before they are adversely affected on the field. Don't be swayed by a positive start to the tournament either, as France have one of the softest group stage draws of any top teams in the tournament. They'll need to prove it against better sides before we're convinced.
They could, however, fail to win their group. Denmark beat a full-strength France team twice in recent Nations League play and could be primed to top Group D. That could set France up for a nasty Round of 16 matchup against Argentina which would leave them floundering.
MORE: How injuries will affect France at the 2022 World Cup
Dark horse to win the 2022 FIFA World Cup
- World Cup dark horse pick: Belgium (+1400 / 11.75)
Belgium have not put together an impressive string of results over the past year, but their stature as one of the most dangerous teams in the world is undoubtable.
Kevin De Bruyne is in spectacular form as the centerpiece of a talented attacking side. And while the defensive unit sports far fewer superstar names, manager Roberto Martinez has done well to institute a defensive mindset in the side.
Recent Nations League slips to the Netherlands are concerning, but this side should be able to make noise at the World Cup, where they finished third in 2018. They won't blow anyone out, but they can secure results against anyone in the world. Don't rule them out of any game.
MORE: Overview of the Belgium squad for the 2022 FIFA World Cup
Most chaotic group at 2022 FIFA World Cup
- Pick to win Group A: Netherlands (-250 / 1.41)
- Pick to qualify from Group A: Ecuador (-110)
If there's one thing you remember when betting the World Cup: the host boost is real.
With No. 50-ranked Qatar present in a Group A that features three other teams which could theoretically top the standings, this should be a wacky, wild, and entertaining group from start to finish.
No. 8-ranked Netherlands are the favorites in this group, and clear favorites to move on. There's no reason to think they'll slip here. The battle will be for second place, and while Qatar should give teams trouble, they're just not good enough to get the results they need to advance.
The Senegal vs. Ecuador showdown on the final group matchday could decide second place. The Lions of Teranga won the Africa Cup of Nations, but they weren't exactly convincing en route to victory, and the loss of captain Sadio Mane is concerning. Ecuador haven't done anything spectacular since qualifying either, but their defensive prowess is exceptional, and that could make the difference.
MORE: Group A snapshot at the 2022 FIFA World Cup
Sleeper World Cup pick
- Pick to qualify from Group F: Canada (+250)
In a group with a strong Belgium side, an inconsistent Morocco, and an aging Croatia team, keep your eyes peeled for Canada.
This Les Rouges side managed by John Herdman is a talented and cohesive unit that plays with vigor and intent under their head man. Herdman, a unique story after moving over from the Canada women's team, is the only coach in soccer history to lead both a men's and women's team to the World Cup.
With even a modest showing in Qatar, Herdman is likely to become a wanted man at the club level, and for good reason. His combination of tactical acumen and man management skills are a big reason why Canada should not be overlooked at this tournament. Yet even should he move on after the competition, Canada are set up well with young, top-level talent leading the way.
MORE: Overview of the Canada squad for the 2022 FIFA World Cup
The "Group of Death" at the 2022 FIFA World Cup
- Pick to win Group E: Germany (+110 / 2.07)
- Pick to qualify from Group E: Japan (+300)
Group E will be one of the more hotly contested ones at the World Cup and should provide plenty of excitement. The presence of both Spain and Germany means that a typically competitive Japan team will have an uphill battle to qualify.
That doesn't mean you should count the Samurai Blue out. They are a talented and tactically astute side that will go toe-to-toe with the rest of the group.
Germany have superior talent and could be a team to watch for to win the title, and are therefore expected to qualify without too much difficulty. Spain, however, could be in trouble. Luis Enrique made some questionable decisions when building his World Cup roster and an over-reliance on role players could see Spain in trouble amidst an unforgiving group.
MORE: How Group E shapes up in Qatar
World Cup betting trends
While every World Cup is its own beast, which makes the event as special as it is, there are a few trends to be aware of as the 2022 tournament gets underway.
How do betting favorites perform at the World Cup?
Over the last few World Cup tournaments, betting favorites almost always perform well, but don't necessarily reach the promised land to hoist the trophy.
Heading into the 2010 World Cup, Spain were considered the betting favorite, boasting 4/1 odds, and they were able to defend that standing. The tournament nearly followed the script to the letter, as Spain lifted the World Cup trophy, while the Netherlands made the final, Germany reached the semifinals and Brazil and Argentina made the quarterfinals all as top picks ahead of the event.
In 2014, hosts Brazil went into the 2014 World Cup as betting favorites on home soil, ahead of the world's No. 1-ranked Spain. The Selecao sat at around 3/1 odds at the start of the tournament, but were ousted in embarrassing fashion, famously hammered 7-1 by Germany in the semifinals before losing 3-0 to the Netherlands in the third-place match.
At the time of the 2018 World Cup draw, Germany were considered the betting favorite to win the tournament at 9/2, with Brazil close behind at 5/1. However, by the time the tournament began, Brazil had overtaken the Germans and were considered the most likely side to win the World Cup with 9/2 odds.
That's not even remotely close to how the tournament played out, as Germany flopped hard, crashing out of the group stage. Meanwhile, Brazil reached the quarterfinals but were sent packing by Belgium via a 2-1 defeat. France emerged victorious with a 4-2 victory in the final against Croatia (below).
How do underdogs perform at the World Cup?
To put it bluntly, underdogs almost never win the World Cup in the modern structure of the tournament. Still, there are a few examples of unlikely contenders picking up a stunning result, or even making a deep run.
The most recent example is Croatia, who reached the 2018 World Cup final, riding the stunning form of Real Madrid midfielder Luka Modric. They fell just short in the final, falling to finish the job, but they were given just 40/1 pre-tournament odds to win the event.
In the 2014 World Cup, Chile engineered a 2-0 victory over Spain in the group stage to dump the European side out of the tournament earlier than expected. That same tournament also saw Italy fall to a 1-0 defeat to Costa Rica which eliminated the Azzurri. Chile were downed by fellow South American side Brazil in the Round of 16, while Costa Rica fell to the Netherlands in the quarterfinals.
At the 2010 World Cup, hosts South Africa famously defeated France in the final round of group stage matches, and while it wasn't enough to see the host nation move on, it was enough to bring France down with them and give the home fans a moment to remember.
