Wednesday’s World Cup odds and analysis – Spain faces crucial test

Marcus DiNitto

Wednesday’s World Cup odds and analysis – Spain faces crucial test image

Spain, the fourth World Cup favorite at 13-to-2 odds coming into the tournament, finds itself in a near must-win situation Wednesday against Chile. The defending World Cup champions, whose odds have been raised to 12-to-1 at the LVH SuperBook, were embarrassed by the Netherlands in their Group B opener, 5-1, and a loss to the South Americans would probably end their chances to repeat.

Netherlands, meanwhile, takes a step down in class with a game against Australia, the lowest-ranked team in the World Cup field.

The third game of the day pits Cameroon and Croatia, two teams that lost their first games, to Mexico and Brazil, respectively.

Here’s a look at Wednesday’s betting card, with AccuScore’s forecasts – which  are based on 10,000 simulated games – presented next to the odds offered two Las Vegas sports books (LVH and CG Technologies) and the odds' implied probability.  The charts are intended to show you which side of the bets offers the best value.

Australia vs. Netherlands, 12 p.m. ET, ESPN, Porto Alegre

Netherlands has a 68.5 percent chance to win this game, AccuScore predicts, which means bettors should be asked to lay just -217 to back them.   The -575 is too rich from a value perspective.  Australia figures to be way overmatched here, but who can blame you for taking a shot at 16-to-1?   The draw, at 6-to-1, also offers good value, if you can envision anything other than a Dutch rout.

Result LVH odds implied % CG odds implied % AS odds AS forecast
Netherlands -575 85.2 -650 86.7 -217 68.5
Australia +1600 5.9 +1400 6.7 +910 9.9
Draw +600 14.3 +600 14.3 +361 21.7

The total: The average simulation score is Netherlands 2 to Australia 0.6, and CG Technologies has the total posted at 3 goals (UNDER -110).
  
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Spain vs. Chile, 3 p.m. ET, ESPN, Rio de Janeiro

While neither side offers great betting value, the prices aren’t unreasonable, either.  Laying 2-to-1 on Spain may interest handicappers who believe in applying a bounce-back theory to soccer.  Chile is a formidable team, of course, so the 5-to-1 price offered at the LVH may entice.

Result LVH odds implied % CG odds implied % AS odds AS forecast
Chile +500 16.7 +450 18.2 +576 14.8
Spain -200 66.7 -200 66.7 -156 60.9
Draw +360 21.7 +340 22.7 +313 24.2

The total: The average score over the 10,000 simulations is Spain 1.8 to Chile 0.8. There’s some range on the total in Vegas, with CG posting 3 goals (UN -125) and William Hill hanging 2.5 goals (OVER -165).

Cameroon vs. Croatia, 6 p.m. ET ESPN, Manaus

Again, neither great nor unreasonable prices on either side.

Result LVH odds implied % CG odds implied % AS odds AS forecast
Croatia -190 65.5 -190 65.5 -142 58.6
Cameroon +550 15.4 +480 17.2 +594 14.4
Draw +310 24.4 +300 25 +270 27

The average simulation score is Croatia 1.4 to Cameroon 0.5, making UNDER 2.5 goals an attractive play at -120 at the LVH.

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Marcus DiNitto