Spain, the fourth World Cup favorite at 13-to-2 odds coming into the tournament, finds itself in a near must-win situation Wednesday against Chile. The defending World Cup champions, whose odds have been raised to 12-to-1 at the LVH SuperBook, were embarrassed by the Netherlands in their Group B opener, 5-1, and a loss to the South Americans would probably end their chances to repeat.
Netherlands, meanwhile, takes a step down in class with a game against Australia, the lowest-ranked team in the World Cup field.
The third game of the day pits Cameroon and Croatia, two teams that lost their first games, to Mexico and Brazil, respectively.
Here’s a look at Wednesday’s betting card, with AccuScore’s forecasts – which are based on 10,000 simulated games – presented next to the odds offered two Las Vegas sports books (LVH and CG Technologies) and the odds' implied probability. The charts are intended to show you which side of the bets offers the best value.
Australia vs. Netherlands, 12 p.m. ET, ESPN, Porto Alegre
Netherlands has a 68.5 percent chance to win this game, AccuScore predicts, which means bettors should be asked to lay just -217 to back them. The -575 is too rich from a value perspective. Australia figures to be way overmatched here, but who can blame you for taking a shot at 16-to-1? The draw, at 6-to-1, also offers good value, if you can envision anything other than a Dutch rout.
| Result | LVH odds | implied % | CG odds | implied % | AS odds | AS forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands | -575 | 85.2 | -650 | 86.7 | -217 | 68.5 |
| Australia | +1600 | 5.9 | +1400 | 6.7 | +910 | 9.9 |
| Draw | +600 | 14.3 | +600 | 14.3 | +361 | 21.7 |
The total: The average simulation score is Netherlands 2 to Australia 0.6, and CG Technologies has the total posted at 3 goals (UNDER -110).
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Spain vs. Chile, 3 p.m. ET, ESPN, Rio de Janeiro
While neither side offers great betting value, the prices aren’t unreasonable, either. Laying 2-to-1 on Spain may interest handicappers who believe in applying a bounce-back theory to soccer. Chile is a formidable team, of course, so the 5-to-1 price offered at the LVH may entice.
| Result | LVH odds | implied % | CG odds | implied % | AS odds | AS forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chile | +500 | 16.7 | +450 | 18.2 | +576 | 14.8 |
| Spain | -200 | 66.7 | -200 | 66.7 | -156 | 60.9 |
| Draw | +360 | 21.7 | +340 | 22.7 | +313 | 24.2 |
The total: The average score over the 10,000 simulations is Spain 1.8 to Chile 0.8. There’s some range on the total in Vegas, with CG posting 3 goals (UN -125) and William Hill hanging 2.5 goals (OVER -165).
Cameroon vs. Croatia, 6 p.m. ET ESPN, Manaus
Again, neither great nor unreasonable prices on either side.
| Result | LVH odds | implied % | CG odds | implied % | AS odds | AS forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Croatia | -190 | 65.5 | -190 | 65.5 | -142 | 58.6 |
| Cameroon | +550 | 15.4 | +480 | 17.2 | +594 | 14.4 |
| Draw | +310 | 24.4 | +300 | 25 | +270 | 27 |
The average simulation score is Croatia 1.4 to Cameroon 0.5, making UNDER 2.5 goals an attractive play at -120 at the LVH.
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