The Premier League is heading into the final week of the 2018-19 season and Arsenal fans must wait to see if they can celebrate St Totteringham's Day by finishing above Tottenham in the table.
The Gunners trail their north London rivals by three points, but Spurs' superior goal difference suggests that the white half of the city will be the ones celebrating a top-four finish this season.
Spurs cancelled the unofficial triumphalist holiday for the first time in 21 years in the 2016-17 season and did so again in 2017-18, so they are now on course to do it for a third season in succession.
However, there is a possibility that Unai Emery's men can leapfrog their neighbours, but it is out of their hands and depends on results going their way.
How the table looks
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tottenham | 37 | 23 | 1 | 13 | +28 | 70 |
| 5 | Arsenal | 37 | 20 | 7 | 10 | +20 | 67 |
As you can see in the table above, Tottenham's goal difference stands at +28 and Arsenal's at +20, meaning an eight-goal swing is required for the Gunners to leapfrog Spurs.
The Premier League's tie-breakers go to number of goals scored when teams are level on points and goal difference, so Arsenal's greater proficiency in attack (they've scored five more than Spurs) would see them finish above their rivals.
Results Arsenal needs
The final gameweek sees Arsenal take on Burnley at Turf Moor, while Tottenham are at home to Everton.
Arsenal need to win their game against the Clarets and they also need Mauricio Pochettino's men to lose against the Toffees.
They will finish above Spurs in the following scenarios:
- Arsenal beat Burnley by a margin of seven goals and Tottenham lose by a margin of one goal. For example: Burnley 0-7 Arsenal and Tottenham 0-1 Everton.
- Arsenal beat Burnley by a margin of six goals and Tottenham lose by a margin of two goals. For example: Burnley 0-6 Arsenal and Tottenham 0-2 Everton.
- Arsenal beat Burnley by a margin of five goals and Tottenham lose by a margin of three goals. For example: Burnley 0-5 Arsenal and Tottenham 0-3 Everton.
- Arsenal beat Burnley by a margin of four goals and Tottenham lose by a margin of four goals. For example: Burnley 0-4 Arsenal and Tottenham 0-4 Everton.
- Arsenal beat Burnley by a margin of three goals and Tottenham lose by a margin of five goals. For example: Burnley 0-3 Arsenal and Tottenham 0-5 Everton.
- Arsenal beat Burnley by a margin of two goals and Tottenham lose by a margin of six goals. For example: Burnley 0-2 Arsenal and Tottenham 0-6 Everton.
- Arsenal beat Burnley by a margin of one goal and Tottenham lose by a margin of seven goals. For example: Burnley 0-1 Arsenal and Tottenham 0-7 Everton.
The odds are firmly stacked against Arsenal achieving a turnaround in fortunes on the final day.
Of Tottenham's 13 losses in the league this season, 10 of those came by a margin of a single goal and they have only conceded more than two goals in a defeat twice (3-1 against Wolves and 4-2 against Arsenal), while the most goals Arsenal have managed to score in a single league game this season is five (5-1 against Bournemouth and against Fulham).
As well as that, the Gunners have been dreadful away from home this season, dropping points in 12 games on the road (four draws and eight defeats).
So they will not only need to be at the very top of their game, but they will also require Spurs to suffer an uncharacteristic capitulation at home.