Lionel Messi returns for the defending FIFA champions Argentina as the CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying leaders hit the road to visit Venezuela hoping to retain their slim advantage atop the standings.
The Albiceleste are just two points clear of Colombia in the table, but are missing a host of key regulars for this international break. While Messi returns from his ankle injury suffered in the Copa America final, Argentina are without the likes of Emiliano Martinez, Cristian Romero, Nico Gonzalez, and Paulo Dybala plus a number of other role players.
Defeat to Colombia last time out was a reminder that while Argentina remain the world's most formidable side, they are still beatable on an off night, particularly at less than full strength.
Venezuela will take some solace in that knowledge, but are aware they still stare down a Goliath. Their Copa America was positive thanks to a three-win group stage showing, but they have since gone three straight winless to slump down in the middle of the qualification standings, especially the embarrassing 4-0 defeat to Bolivia last window which left La Vinotinto with an uncertain future.
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Venezuela vs. Argentina prediction, odds
- Moneyline lean: Argentina (-190)
- Score prediction: Venezuela 1-2 Argentina
While this game could be a bit more of a grind than usual for an Argentina side missing a few key members of the squad, they should find a way through in the end, especially with the magical difference-maker Messi back in the side.
Following the 4-0 loss to Bolivia, where they were absolutely pummeled in La Paz, it's hard to know which Venezuela will show up on any given night, and therefore they are hard to trust for any kind of upset special.
MORE: Lineups, expected starting 11 for Venezuela vs. Argentina match
| BetMGM (USA) | |
| Venezuela win | +252 |
| Draw | +290 |
| Argentina win | -190 |
| Both teams to score | Y: +120 N: -165 |
| Over / Under 2.5 goals | O: +105 U: -145 |
| Argentina -0.5 goals | -190 |
| Venezuela +0.5 goals | +135 |
Venezuela vs. Argentina match facts
- Date: Thursday, October 10, 2024
- Kickoff Time: 5 p.m. ET / 2 p.m. PT
- Location: Estadio Monumental de Maturin (Maturin, Venezuela)
- Referee: Gustavo Tejera (URU)
- Last meeting: Argentina 3-0 Venezuela (Mar. 25, 2022 | World Cup qualifying)
Venezuela vs. Argentina best bet
- Pick: Both teams to score — Yes
- Odds: +120 (BetMGM)
Venezuela were blanked in the last international window by both Bolivia and Uruguay, but not for the lack of trying. In the 4-0 defeat to Bolivia, they were out-shot, but still managed to rip off 12 shots, putting three on target and missing one big chance. It got better against Uruguay (somehow), as they were incredibly held off the scoresheet despite 20 shots with six on target, missing both big chances that fell their way.
With Argentina missing both injured defender Cristian Romero and suspended goalkeeper Emiliano Martinez, who always seems to come up with one or two incredible saves every time he dons the Albiceleste kit, Venezuela could be primed to find the net at least once, even in defeat.
Venezuela vs. Argentina prop bet
- Pick: Race to 6 corners — Neither
- Odds: -125 (FanDuel)
One of the best ways to keep a lid on Argentina is to keep them from piling up corners. Not only does a team want to limit set piece chances for Lionel Messi and company, but it ideally means the Albiceleste aren't pouring numbers forward either.
Yet Argentina don't need to pile up corners to reflect their attacking pressure either. In fact, Argentina haven't racked up more than four corners in any of their last six games, dating all the way back to when they grabbed six against Peru in the Copa America group stage.
Neither of these sides has racked up a high corner count in any of their recent fixtures against one another either. While backing neither team to reach five corners feels tempting at +195, the additional wiggle room is worth it at close to even-money.
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