USWNT will not win Women's World Cup without major lineup changes against nemesis Sweden in Round of 16

Mike DeCourcy

USWNT will not win Women's World Cup without major lineup changes against nemesis Sweden in Round of 16 image

When Alex Morgan told reporters after the United States women’s national team’s dreary 0-0 draw with Portugal that “every team in this World Cup is going to be difficult to play,” citing the growth of the game across the globe, she was making a fairly common statement that is well supported by the results of the 48 group-stage matches played over the tournament’s first couple weeks.

What she left unsaid, though, is that some opponents are more difficult than others.

Like Sweden.

No, particularly Sweden.

The USWNT can’t seem to get away from the Swedes in major tournaments, and it’s not just because both teams have been excellent through the world game’s three-decade history. Germany has been at that level just as long, and they’ve never been drawn into the same group at the World Cup or the Olympics. With the U.S. and Sweden, it’s happened eight times.

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The Americans could have dodged another matchup at the 2023 FIFA Women’s World Cup, but they blew that with their substandard performance in Group E games against Vietnam, the Netherlands and Portugal. The USWNT finished second in the group as a result, and that means playing sizzling Sweden in the Round of 16 — and risking their earliest-ever World Cup elimination.

If it seems like Sweden has always dominated the USWNT in major tournaments, that’s because they have. Recently, anyway. The USA have a single group stage win against Sweden (2-0 in 2019), mixed in with two draws and two losses in major tournaments since 2011.

One of the losses was a 3-0 walloping in the 2021 Olympics, and one of the draws saw Sweden advance to the Olympic semis via a penalty shootout. So it actually feels more like three defeats in that span.

The USWNT will need to reverse their longstanding struggles in this series if they’re going to remain alive in pursuit of a third consecutive World Cup title.

That’s not going to happen if they continue on their current path.

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Potential USWNT lineup changes vs Sweden

Playing a 4-3-3 system with these players has not produced an impressive performance since they defeated Canada, Japan and Brazil in consecutive games to claim the SheBelieves Cup in February. That was a slightly different group of players, though, because forward Mallory Swanson and defender Becky Sauerbrunn were starters in that tournament, and Swanson delivered four of the team’s five goals.

That was a three-game tournament against teams exclusively ranked in the top dozen in the world, whereas the first three games of the World Cup involved twice playing teams outside the top 20. And still the USWNT scored only four total goals (three against Vietnam) and went 1W-0L-2D.

“I don’t think that was a good performance altogether,” head coach Vlatko Andonovski said following the Portugal game. “Starting from the back line, midfield, forwards … I don’t think we were able to solve the problems the opponents were presenting. There were moments when we did, and it looked good, but those moments were very few and not enough to be able to walk out of here with several goals.”

If he sees that, then he has to see what’s necessary: an entirely different approach.

MORE: All about USWNT manager Vlatko Andonovski

The USWNT is not getting enough from Morgan, who has not scored despite 14 shot attempts and four of what FotMob.com rated as “big chances”, including a penalty kick against Vietnam that was easily saved. One option would be replacing her in the starting lineup with Lynn Williams and have her available as a substitute.

If Andi Sullivan is going to continue in midfield — and it seems highly unlikely Andonovski will adjust his central defense this late in a tournament and move Julie Ertz to her common position as a holding midfielder — then Sullivan is going to need more company.

And Andonovski should seriously reconsider his miscalculation of keeping Alyssa Naeher as the starting goalkeeper, after alternating the position with Casey Murphy during much of last year’s action. Murphy has 10 shutouts in 14 caps, including nine in 12 games over the past two seasons. At 27, she is eight years younger. Naeher had little to do in her three group stage starts — and still managed to appear unsettled on multiple occasions.

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Andonovski is unlikely to do this, but the USWNT would benefit from opening the match with a five-player midfield, either in a 4-1-4-1 or 3-5-2, and cause the same sort of traffic problems for Sweden that have plagued their own attack.

The latter seems preferable, given the players available and how well-suited someone such as Crystal Dunn would be toward operating as a wingback. Ertz could play at the center of a three-player backline. Sophia Smith could tuck, as a withdrawn forward, behind Williams in the attack.

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Here’s how the formation would look (left to right):

Goalkeeper: Casey Murphy

Defense (3): Naomi Girma, Julie Ertz, Alana Cook

Midfield (5): Crystal Dunn, Lindsey Horan, Andi Sullivan, Savannah DeMelo, Kelley O’Hara

Forwards (2): Sophia Smith, Lynn Williams

The pressure-based approach the USWNT employed against the Netherlands eventually wore down the Dutch from front to back and propelled the second-half American comeback. The concern against Sweden, though, is that by the time that fatigue were to set in, the USWNT already would trail by too much for it to matter.

It’s not like the U.S. women's national team to play for a counter-attack goal, or even to drag the game toward a penalty shootout. But at this 2023 World Cup, the American squad hasn’t played much like the USWNT.

Mike DeCourcy

Mike DeCourcy Photo

Mike DeCourcy has been the college basketball columnist at The Sporting News since 1995. Starting with newspapers in Pittsburgh, Memphis and Cincinnati, he has written about the game for 35 years and covered 32 Final Fours. He is a member of the United States Basketball Writers Hall of Fame and is a studio analyst at the Big Ten Network and NCAA Tournament Bracket analyst for Fox Sports. He also writes frequently for TSN about soccer and the NFL. Mike was born in Pittsburgh, raised there during the City of Champions decade and graduated from Point Park University.