USA Copa America scenarios, explained: USMNT eliminated and miss out on knockout stage after defeat vs. Uruguay

Kyle Bonn

USA Copa America scenarios, explained: USMNT eliminated and miss out on knockout stage after defeat vs. Uruguay image

The first goal for the U.S. men's national team at the 2024 Copa America was to escape from group play and qualify for a knockout stage spot. They failed and were eliminated. 

Many expected much more of this USMNT side, and the minimum expectation was to finish amongst the top two in Group C and qualify for the bracket-style knockout portion of the competition.

Elimination from the group stage is a massive disappointment for them and leave's Gregg Berhalter's standing as head coach in seriously hot water.

A quarterfinal place was the minimum required by most benchmarks, but some fans and media expressed their expectation of reaching even further into the tournament. In order to do that, they needed to secure passage from Group C, where they were drawn alongside Uruguay, Panama, and Bolivia.

After beating Bolivia in the opener but shockingly falling to Panama, The Sporting News details how the United States failed to secure a knockout stage spot.

MORE: 2024 Copa America standings, schedule, fixtures, and results

2024 Copa America Group C standings

Entering the final round of group play, the U.S. sat second in Group C, which is a qualifying position. However, they were then beaten by title contenders Uruguay, while Panama beat basement-dwellers Bolivia.

PosTeamGPPtsW-D-LGFGAGD
1.Uruguay393-0-091+8
2.Panama362-0-165+1
3.USA331-0-2330
4.Bolivia300-0-3110-9

Copa America group stage tiebreakers

Goal differential is the primary tiebreaker for teams that finish level on points in the 2024 Copa America group stage.

Should teams also finish level on goal differential, which is possible for the U.S. and Panama if they both win and Panama makes up the goal difference disadvantage, goals scored would be the next tiebreaker. With the U.S. sitting level with Panama in that category, should Panama make up the goal difference, they would very likely see themselves ahead on this category, meaning they would qualify.

  1. Goal difference in all group matches
  2. Goals scored in all group matches
  3. Head-to-head record (points scored) between teams in question
  4. Goal difference in matches between teams in question*
  5. Goals scored in matches between teams in question*
  6. Fewest red cards
  7. Fewest yellow cards
  8. Drawing of lots

* Only applies when 3 or more teams are level at this stage of the tiebreaker heirarchy

Who would the USA have played in the Copa America knockout stage?

The knockout portion of the 2024 Copa America is not structured like the European Championship or the World Cup, which scatters the two qualifiers from each group onto opposite sides of the bracket.

Instead, qualifiers from each group are situated on the same side of the bracket, making predicting where each team will land much simpler.

Were the U.S. to finish top two in Group C and qualify for the knockouts, they would have matched up against a Group D qualifier from the opposite position.

This means they would most likely have played either Brazil or Colombia in the quarterfinals.

Copa America 2024 Group C fixtures, results

DateTime (ET)Match (click for tickets/recap)Location
Sun, Jun. 236 p.m.USA 2-0 BoliviaArlington, TX (AT&T Stadium)
Sun, Jun. 239 p.m.Uruguay 3-1 PanamaMiami, FL (Hard Rock Stadium)
Thu, Jun. 276 p.m.Panama 2-1 USAAtlanta, GA (Mercedes-Benz Stadium)
Thu, Jun. 279 p.m.Uruguay 5-0 BoliviaEast Rutherford, NJ (MetLife Stadium)
Mon, Jul. 19 p.m.Bolivia 1-3 PanamaOrlando, FL (Exploria Stadium)
Mon, Jul. 19 p.m.USA 0-1 UruguayKansas City, MO (Arrowhead Stadium)

Kyle Bonn

Kyle Bonn Photo

Kyle Bonn, is a Syracuse University broadcast journalism graduate with over a decade of experience covering soccer globally. Kyle specializes in soccer tactics and betting, with a degree in data analytics. Kyle also does TV broadcasts for Wake Forest soccer, and has had previous stops with NBC Soccer and IMG College. When not covering the game, he has long enjoyed loyalty to the New York Giants, Yankees, and Fulham. Kyle enjoys playing racquetball and video games when not watching or covering sports.