Can USA soccer team make it out of World Cup Group B? Projecting USMNT matches vs England, Iran, Wales

Kyle Bonn

Can USA soccer team make it out of World Cup Group B? Projecting USMNT matches vs England, Iran, Wales image

The U.S. national soccer team was drawn into Group B for the 2022 FIFA World Cup alongside England, Iran, and Wales.

It has shaped up to be a well-balanced group and one from which USMNT supporters believe the Americans can qualify to the knockout rounds by finishing among the top two.

While No. 5-ranked England are the favorites to take up one of those qualifying spots, the USA (No. 16), Wales (No. 19) and even Iran (No. 20) will feel like the second berth is within reach of results fall their way.

A draw with Wales in the opening match left supporters knowing they had secured a valuable point but also frustrated that the late equalizer squandered what would have been a precious victory. However, an impressive performance in a 0-0 draw with England brought hope back, and left the United States with a clear mission in the final match of the group.

Here we look at what it would take for the USA to advance out of the group and what potential matchups will be awaiting in the knockout rounds.

WORLD CUP DRAW BREAKDOWNS:
Group A | Group B | Group C | Group D
Group E | Group F | Group G | Group H

What does USA need to qualify for knockout round?

Team PTS GP W L D GF GA GD
1. England 4 2 1 0 1 6 2 +4
2. Iran 3 2 1 1 0 4 6 -2
3. USA 2 2 0 0 2 1 1 0
4. Wales 1 2 0 1 1 1 3 -2

For the United States, the task for knockout stage qualification is very simple: beat Iran and they're in. Lose to or draw with Iran, and they're out. It's no more complicated than that.

With the way the group shakes out, three points will not be enough to win the group, because it would mean Iran would finish on four. They will need to secure five points to advance, and the only way to do that is to beat Iran.

The U.S. has a small chance to win the group, but they'd need England to lose or draw against Wales. If they draw, the U.S. will need to also make up their goal differential, meaning they'd have to beat Iran by five goals, which seems unlikely.

Last time they competed at a World Cup, in 2014, the U.S. advanced to the knockout stage by finishing on four points, second to winners Germany and level with Portugal. They needed goal differential to see them through in that tournament. In 2010, another edition in which the U.S. advanced past the group stage, it topped the group with a five-point total, finishing ahead of England on goal differential thanks to the famous 91st minute goal by Landon Donovan against Algeria in the final group-stage match.

No team has qualified for the World Cup knockout stage with three points since 1998.

MORE: Group B breakdown with USA, England, Iran, Wales

Beating Iran also won't be easy. The Asian side has the longest odds to escape the group despite the fact that it's a Pot 3 representative and it finished top of its final qualifying group. The U.S. has only faced Iran twice in history, and that includes an infamous loss in the 1998 World Cup.

2022 World Cup Group B odds

Odds via BetMGM

England is one of the favorites to not only win the group but also to win the World Cup, currently with the fourth-best odds to do so.

The United States is second-favorite to win the group and expected to reach the knockout round, but Wales is not too far behind. 

MORE: Full 2022 World Cup match schedule

Futures will be updated again once Friday's matches have completed, as sports books take them down during games to update before re-posting after results are complete.

Team Odds to
Qualify from Group
Odds to
Win Group
Odds to
Win World Cup
England -3000 -350 +800
USA +100 +550 +10000
Wales +115 +600 +15000
Iran +400 +1800 +50000

World Cup Group B schedule at Qatar 2022

As Group B plays on the second day of the tournament, the U.S. players will have a very quick turnaround from the break in the European club season to the start of the World Cup, with very little chance of preparation.

That first match will come against UEFA playoff qualifier Wales, and a result will be necessary if the USA can have any realistic hope of progressing to the knockout rounds.

The Americans then play against England on Black Friday, followed by a final group match against Iran that could decide who escapes and who goes home.

MORE: USA draws England in World Cup with Black Friday match

Group B match schedule

Date Match Time (ET) Stadium
Mon, Nov. 21 England vs. Iran 8 a.m. Khalifa Int'l Stadium
Mon, Nov. 21 USA vs. Wales 2 p.m. Ahmad Bin Ali Stadium
Fri, Nov. 25 Wales vs. Iran 5 a.m. Ahmad Bin Ali Stadium
Fri, Nov. 25 England vs. USA 2 p.m. Al Bayt Stadium
Tues, Nov. 29 Wales vs. England 2 p.m. Ahmad Bin Ali Stadium
Tues, Nov. 29 Iran vs. USA 2 p.m. Al Thumama Stadium

Who could USMNT play in knockout rounds at World Cup 2022?

If the United States is able to qualify from the group and reach the knockout stage, it has a potential friendly draw awaiting in the Round of 16.

In the more likely result that the U.S. finishes second in the group to title challengers England, the U.S. would play the team that finishes atop Group A. Since Group A automatically includes the hosts as per FIFA tradition — Qatar are ranked No. 50 in the world — that means the U.S. would be matching up against a group winner that will not be among the top seven teams in the world. The Netherlands is the highest-ranked team at No. 8.

Group A, featuring the Netherlands, Senegal, and Ecuador, will pose a challenge, but it's still preferred when compared to facing the likes of Brazil, Spain, and Argentina who are favorites to win other groups in the tournament. 

If the U.S. were to surprise and win Group B, it would instead face the second-place finisher in Group A, an even tastier possibility. That would have fans dreaming of the chance of reaching the World Cup quarterfinals — an accomplishment last achieved in 2002. Lionel Messi's Argentina or defending champions France would likely be the opponent in the final eight.

World Cup Round of 16 schedule

Date Match Time (ET) Stadium
Sat, Dec. 3 1A vs. 2B 10 a.m. Khalifa Int'l
Sat, Dec. 3 1C vs. 2D 2 p.m. Ahmad Bin Ali
Sun, Dec. 4 1D vs. 2C 10 a.m. Al Thumama
Sun, Dec. 4 1B vs. 2A 2 p.m. Al Bayt
Mon, Dec. 5 1E vs. 2F 10 a.m. Al Janoub
Mon, Dec. 5 1G vs. 2H 2 p.m. Stadium 974
Tues, Dec. 6 1F vs. 2E 10 a.m. Education City
Tues, Dec. 6 1H vs. 2G 2 p.m. Lusail

World Cup Quarterfinals schedule

Date Match Time (ET) Stadium
Fri, Dec. 9 QF1: 1E/2F vs. 1G/2H 10 a.m. Education City
Fri, Dec. 9 QF2: 1A/2B vs. 1C/2D 2 p.m. Lusail
Sat, Dec. 10 QF3: 1F/2E vs. 1H/2G 10 a.m. Al Thumama
Sat, Dec. 10 QF4: 1B/2A vs. 1D/2C 2 p.m. Al Bayt

Kyle Bonn

Kyle Bonn Photo

Kyle Bonn, is a Syracuse University broadcast journalism graduate with over a decade of experience covering soccer globally. Kyle specializes in soccer tactics and betting, with a degree in data analytics. Kyle also does TV broadcasts for Wake Forest soccer, and has had previous stops with NBC Soccer and IMG College. When not covering the game, he has long enjoyed loyalty to the New York Giants, Yankees, and Fulham. Kyle enjoys playing racquetball and video games when not watching or covering sports.