The United States women's national team learned the path it will have to negotiate to the 2015 Women's World Cup in Canada on Friday morning as the draw for the 2014 CONCACAF Women's Championship, which will double as World Cup qualifying, was made in Miami.
The Americans were drawn into Group A with Trinidad and Tobago, Guatemala and Haiti. They avoided Mexico and Costa Rica, the only teams capable of posing something of a threat, who were cast into Group B along with Jamaica and Martinique - a side which isn't actually eligible to qualify, as is actually part of France.
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The USA will now face Trinidad and Tobago first in Kansas City on Oct. 15. Two days later, they take on Guatemala in Chicago. They round out group play against Haiti on Oct. 20 in Washington, DC. The semifinals and finals will take place in Philadelphia on Oct. 24 and 26, respectively. All of the games will be aired on the FOX Sports family of networks.
On paper, qualifying ought to be a mere formality for the world's long-time number one team, especially given the soft draw. Four years ago, however, the USA were upset by Mexico 2-1 in the semifinals after demolishing their opposition in the group stage. That meant the Americans had to win a crucial game against Costa Rica to clinch third place, and then beat Italy in a home-and-away playoff. They managed, if only just - by a pair of 1-0 scores - but the experience put a good scare into the eventual 2011 Women's World Cup finalists.
Qualifying for the 2012 Olympics was far more straightforward, as the Americans swept through their five CONCACAF qualifying games by a cumulative 38-0 scoring margin.
This time around, World Cup qualification ought to be a bit simpler. Canada, the second-strongest team in the region by some distance, are qualified automatically as hosts. Now that the Women's World Cup has expanded to 24 teams, from 16, the CONCACAF region will get 3 ½ berths, rather than 2 ½ - in addition to Canada's. That is to say that both finalists and the winner of the third-place game will qualify automatically while the country that comes in fourth will go to a playoff with the third-placed side in South American qualifying.
That means, simply, there exists no excuse for the most laureled side in women's soccer - the only one to have medaled at all six World Cups - to qualify at a canter. But that means winning at least one knockout game and those are unpredictable.
There is a very good chance that the Americans will have to take on Mexico on that all-important semifinal again, in a rematch from four years ago. They should be better prepared this time around though, as the Americans play Mexico in a pair of friendlies on Sept. 13 and 18 in Salt Lake City and Rochester, NY, respectively, following a week-long camp.
They hope to sort out the issues that tripped them up earlier on in this unusually volatile year. So far, the Americans have slumped to seventh place at the Algarve Cup, their worst-ever performance, and unexpectedly saw head coach Tom Sermanni fired and replaced by Jill Ellis in April. Since then, results have been somewhat mixed as Ellis works to modernize and rejuvenate the side.
They have until Oct. 15 to get it right.
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