Real Madrid vs. Barcelona expert prediction, best bets, betting odds, and picks for El Clasico

In the world's most popular football rivalry, there's no love lost, but this year's El Clasico may have a little extra bite to it.

Real Madrid host Barcelona as both are tied atop the La Liga table, though the Blaugrana have the slight edge on goal difference. The two sides are both unbeaten through league play so far and sport identical records (7W-0L-1D, 22 points).

Barcelona have been impressive in their eight domestic matches thus far, holding their opponents to just a single goal, while scoring 20 of their own during that span. But a once confident side is now doubting itself after a midweek draw at home to Inter Milan has left them on the cusp of elimination from the UEFA Champions League.

Madrid, meanwhile, have excelled in the Champions League, becoming one of the first clubs to mathematically confirm a place in the knockout stage. But they've not been blowing out the competition in La Liga or in Europe, and they needed a late Antonio Rudiger goal just to come away with a draw against Shakhtar Donetsk in midweek.

But Real Madrid have a reputation of rising up to the big occasion, and they'll be keen on reminding Barcelona that the defending La Liga and European champions reside in the Spanish capital. 

MORE: La Liga top goalscorers, Pichichi leaders for 2022/23 Spanish league season

Real Madrid vs. Barcelona betting odds

The betting market has given Real Madrid a slight edge as the home side, but it's clear that this match is up for grabs as both sides have plus odds. 

The market also expects goals to flow in this game despite Barcelona's glittering league defensive record, with 'both teams to score' an overwhelming favorite as is the over 2.5 goal total. The even money goal total sits right around 3.0.

Real Madrid vs. Barcelona recent history

• Real Madrid vs. Barcelona all-time record: Real Madrid 101 wins, Barcelona 97 wins, 51 draws

Real Madrid have the slight edge in the all-time series thanks to a run of wins that was only recently put to bed. Los Blancos won five consecutive meetings, with four of those coming in La Liga plus a Supercopa de Espana victory, until Barcelona ended that in emphatic fashion last time out with a 4-0 La Liga victory at the Bernabeu this past March.

Prior to Real Madrid's run of success, Barcelona enjoyed a long unbeaten run against their rivals, going seven matches without a loss from December, 2017 to December, 2019, racking up four wins and three draws.

Incredibly, through the 249 all-time meetings between these two clubs in competitive matches, they've scored the exact same amount of goals against each other, with Real Madrid and Barcelona each logging 295 goals across the history of this fixture.

Real Madrid vs. Barcelona last 5 matches

Real Madrid vs. Barcelona prediction

Both these teams have significant flaws coming into this match. Real Madrid have struggled to move the ball upfield in the absence of Luka Modric, and that has seen the attack suffer. Barcelona, meanwhile, have committed several costly defensive mistakes.

Real Madrid will have revenge on their minds after last season's Champions League and domestic league double was soured slightly by an inexplicable 4-0 defeat at home to Barcelona in March. Barcelona, meanwhile, are under serious pressure after their Champions League debacle against Inter Milan. Xavi will be desperate to keep his revamped sign on track after spending big during the summer.

Injuries will have a say in how this match unfolds. Barcelona's defensive record has been notable (one goal allowed in La Liga), but they have key defenders missing for this one (Ronald Araujo, Andreas Christensen, and Jules Kounde), and their replacements — Gerard Pique and Eric Garcia — left a lot to be desired in midweek against Inter Milan. Holding midfielder Sergio Busquets also appears to be slowing with age. It's not the best set-up heading into a matchup against one of the best attacking units in the world.

• Moneyline lean: Real Madrid
• Against the Spread lean (handicap): Real Madrid -0.5 goals
• Scoreline prediction: Real Madrid 2-1 Barcelona

MORE: La Liga table & standings, with closer look at title, Champions League, and relegation battles

Real Madrid vs. Barcelona best bets & expert analysis

Real Madrid vs. Barcelona best bet

• Pick: Real Madrid to win & both teams to score (+275 at Caesars)

As mentioned earlier, there are defensive problems for Barcelona that could see Real Madrid take advantage. However, Los Blancos have their own defensive issues to sort out as well, and will be missing star goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois in net.

The two teams have conceded over 6.0 xGA (expected goals allowed) in league play this season, but both have benefited from great goalkeeping and poor opposition finishing. Real Madrid have conceded 6.28 xGA, but only 5.03 xGOTA (expected goals on target allowed), a post-shot number that measures expected goals based on not just position of the shot, but goalkeeper positioning and the shot's placement. Barcelona have enjoyed an even greater differential, conceding 6.30 xGA but just 4.69 xGOTA.

While both teams may have been spared thus far by some opposition strikers, it should be a different story against world-class players like Robert Lewandowski (7.56 xG / 11.25 xGOT this season), Karim Benzema, and Vinicius Jr.

The over 2.5 goals (-160 odds) has little value in this match, but picking a winner and tacking on both teams to score will provide a healthier return.

Real Madrid vs. Barcelona prop: Corners

• Prop: Barcelona with more corner kicks (+138 on Caesars)

With the idea that we expect Real Madrid to come away victorious in this match, or at least have a lead at some point, there are clues as to what else to expect given that anticipated match flow.

In recent times, Barcelona have hit the panic button almost immediately upon facing adversity. While Xavi's tactics search for creativity through wingers cutting inside on the dribble or midfielders sending line-breaking through-balls up the gut, as soon as they concede a goal, their attacking response becomes far more chaotic marked by desperate crossing into the box.

As players look to play vertically down the wings, a flood of corners ensues. Against Inter in midweek they racked up 10 corners, plus 13 in Milan seven days prior. Even in the season-opener against Rayo Vallecano where they were held to a scoreless draw, they managed to pick out eight corners in the match as they searched for a winner.

If Barcelona are behind again at any point in this match, they could again default to the same strategy while under pressure and rack up the set pieces. 

MORE: Barcelona on the cusp of elimination after Champions League slip at Camp Nou

Real Madrid vs. Barcelona prop flier: Half-by-half result

• Prop flier: Barcelona win 1H / Real Madrid win 2H (+700 on Caesars)

One of the most stark differences between these clubs is how they play in the first half compared to the second half.

In league play, Barcelona have been a clear first-half team. They have collected 9.48 xG in La Liga play through the first 45 minutes of games, with a 10.14 xGOT finishing number. In the second-half, they have collected 11.48 xG, underperforming slightly on xGOT with 11.24.

Teams always have a higher xG number in the second half as opponents tire, but the differential is important to note. For Barcelona, the increase in xG from the first to second half is just 21 percent.

For Real Madrid, however, their first-half xG is 7.78, with an underperforming 7.11 xGOT. After halftime, however, Los Blancos open things up, with a 10.26 xG mark and an even better 11.09 xGOT. That's a 32 percent increase in the second half on xG, and a massive 56 percent increase on the xGOT mark.

How do those metrics manifest themselves? Well, Real Madrid have required second-half winners against Mallorca, Real Betis, Espanyol, and Almeria in league play, plus the game against Shakhtar Donetsk midweek where Rudiger's painful last-gasp equalizer saw them snatch a point.

Meanwhile, Barcelona have taken early league leads against Real Sociedad, Real Valladolid, Sevilla, Elche, Mallorca, and Celta Vigo in league play plus against Inter just a few days ago. As a flier with big odds, take Barcelona to win the first half, and Real Madrid to complete a victorious comeback after the break based on the historical data.

Real Madrid vs. Barcelona TV channel, live stream

UK: Sunday's massive El Clasico tilt will be shown in the United Kingdom on Premier Sports 1 and LaLigaTV. It can be streamed via Premier Player.

USA: The match between Real Madrid and Barcelona from the Bernabeu can be seen in the United States on ESPN Deportes, and streamed on ESPN+ along with all other La Liga matches.

ESPN Deportes is also available to stream on fuboTV, and there's a special offer $40 off on the Latino package quarterly plan through October 16, available for just $59.

Canada: The match will be broadcast in Canada on TSN3, which is also available to stream via the TSN app or official website.

Australia: Australia's exclusive broadcaster for La Liga is Optus Sport, who also is the exclusive broadcaster for the Premier League.