Pumas UNAM vs. Seattle Sounders best bets, odds, lines, picks, and expert predictions for Champions League final

Kyle Bonn

Pumas UNAM vs. Seattle Sounders best bets, odds, lines, picks, and expert predictions for Champions League final image

MLS gets yet another crack at winning the CONCACAF Champions League for the first time in league history as the Seattle Sounders bear the flag for the first leg of the final in Mexico City against Pumas UNAM.

Liga MX has owned the competition from its relaunch in 2008, winning every single edition of the competition. MLS clubs have reached the final five times since then, and all five teams have fallen short.

This year may be MLS's best chance to win though, with a strong but inconsistent Sounders team taking on a similarly sputtering Pumas. Seattle sits 11th in the Western Conference, but the spotty early results are not exactly a reflection of the team's quality. Pumas, alternatively, sits 12th in the Liga MX table and has been an over-performer in the continental competition, upsetting sixth-placed Cruz Azul in the semifinals.

Both teams come into this match on the heels of two straight league defeats, with Pumas falling Chivas Guadalajara and San Luis back-to-back, while Seattle dropped matches against Inter Miami and San Jose Earthquakes.

MORE: Full bracket, results, & highlights from 2022 CONCACAF Champions League

Pumas vs. Seattle Sounders betting odds

Odds via DraftKings (USA) and Sports Interaction (Canada)

Interestingly, the Liga MX side is a heavy favorite at home, despite Seattle's unbeaten record in the CONCACAF Champions League. Seattle is even a slight underdog with the spread, as the oddsmakers don't trust an MLS side in the CONCACAF Champions League final.

The 2.5 over/under is a solid representation of the match, according to bookmakers, with the odds about even in either direction, although the bookmakers seem to disagree on which side of the total gets the juice.

  DraftKings Sports
Interaction
Pumas Win -130 -137
Draw +255 +230
Seattle Win +370 +320
Both teams
to score Y / N
-125 / -105 -123 / -127
Over / Under
2.5 goals
-125 / +105 -106 / -130
Pumas -0.5 -130 -132
Seattle +0.5 +110 -101

MORE: Liga MX vs. MLS in CONCACAF Champions League history

Pumas vs. Seattle Sounders prediction

With the Seattle Sounders this year, it's been impossible to figure out whether their games will turn out as defensive struggles or wild shootouts. One thing is for certain, however — they'll almost certainly be close.

Every single one of Seattle's first seven matches of the MLS season have been decided by one goal, plus one draw. Add in 1-1 road draws with Club Leon and NYCFC in CONCACAF Champions League play, and this team is in every game.

The Sounders have already secured a result in Mexico in this competition, traveling to Club Leon and playing to a 1-1 draw in the second leg of their quarterfinal matchup. The MLS side is tested on the road in tough environments, and has a chance to secure a positive result ahead of a return home.

Moneyline lean: Draw
Against the Spread lean: Seattle Sounders +0.5 (on DraftKings)

Scoreline prediction: UNAM Pumas 1-1 Seattle Sounders

Pumas vs. Seattle Sounders best bets & expert analysis

Pumas vs. Seattle Sounders best bet

It's understandable not to trust an MLS team traveling to Mexico in a competition that no MLS team has ever won, but this time feels different.

Pumas is no joke of a team, but the Liga MX side has produced upset after upset to reach this stage, and at some point the magic will run out. The side should have been eliminated in the quarterfinals if not for Bruce Arena's tactical disaster that saw New England cough up a huge lead. That is to say, they're a vulnerable squad.

Seattle isn't exactly a juggernaut, and the results have been spotty at best early on in league play, but it's an experienced, veteran squad with good pace and technical ability. Jordan Morris is back to his absolute best, and Nicolas Lodeiro and Raul Ruidiaz are top-level attacking talent even with both over the age of 30.

The Sounders' inconsistency makes the over/under a stay-away pick, but a road battle with a defensive-minded Pumas is sure to finish a close match. A draw is great value in the 5/2 range, but hedging towards a prolific Seattle team that plays well on the road is a good play.

Pick: Draw or Seattle Sounders (+105 on DraftKings)

Pumas vs. Seattle Sounders kicker: Total corner kicks

A defensive home side missing its top striker against a visiting MLS team sure to play it safe on the road is going to make for a cagey match.

While the teams — especially Seattle — could find the back of the net with a successful counterattack or two, these aren't teams that like to play in the half-court, and there won't be the usual amount of serious attacking possession to go around.

With that, corner kicks should be down as well. Pumas averages 5.3 corners per match in CONCACAF Champions League play, but in Liga MX play that drops to 4.8, and even in the continental semifinals against Cruz Azul, Pumas only mustered three corners in each leg. Seattle, meanwhile, averages just 3.3 corners per match in continental play this season. And on the road in Mexico, the Sounders will pick their spots in the attack.

Prop kicker: Under 9.5 total corners (-105)

Kyle Bonn

Kyle Bonn Photo

Kyle Bonn, is a Syracuse University broadcast journalism graduate with over a decade of experience covering soccer globally. Kyle specializes in soccer tactics and betting, with a degree in data analytics. Kyle also does TV broadcasts for Wake Forest soccer, and has had previous stops with NBC Soccer and IMG College. When not covering the game, he has long enjoyed loyalty to the New York Giants, Yankees, and Fulham. Kyle enjoys playing racquetball and video games when not watching or covering sports.