PSG vs Bayern Munich prediction, odds, betting tips and best bets for Champions League first leg

The return of Champions League action this season couldn't possibly come at a worse time for PSG as they gear up to play German champions Bayern Munich in the first leg of their Round of 16 series.

Dealing with a host of injuries that have stymied their domestic form, PSG will limp into the UEFA continental competition's knockout stage amid a miserable run of matches that has seen their Ligue 1 dominance challenged.

Bayern also face a fierce battle domestically, sitting just a point above Union Berlin and three clear of Borussia Dortmund in the Bundesliga table. They suffered through a damaging string of draws in January, but have responded with a pair of consecutive league wins.

Both sides are injury stricken up front, with PSG sweating the fitness of Kylian Mbappe and Lionel Messi, while Bayern continue to be without the services of Sadio Mane. This match will feature a number of international stars, but the game could also be won or lost by players with a smaller but equally important role to play.

MORE: UEFA Champions League Golden Boot rankings for 2022/23

PSG vs Bayern Munich odds

Despite PSG's struggles of late, they are only a slight underdog at home, with both clubs sporting plus odds on the moneyline.

One thing bookmakers seem to agree on, however, is that the game will feature a significant amount of goals. The total was up to 3.5 goals before the day of the match, while both teams to score is swung decidedly in favor of the "yes" selection. This despite the injuries to PSG's attacking front, which has seen the Parisian's front line present far less danger in domestic play of late.

Late line movement has shifted towards the draw slightly, with PSG's moneyline increasing a decent amount but Bayern's odds remaining around the same. While the idea that both teams will score remains heavy as kickoff nears, there has been some return to Earth for the total, which has slid closer to a 2.5 total rather than 3.5.

PSG vs Bayern Munich: Three things to know

Here are the key facts, trends and lineup updates ahead of the much-anticipated Round of 16 showdown between two of the favorites to win the European crown.

PSG vs. Bayern Munich match facts

• Date: Tuesday, February 14
• Kickoff Time: 3 p.m. ET / 8 p.m. GMT / 7 a.m. AEDT (Wed, Feb. 15)
• Location: Parc des Princes (Paris, France)
• Official: Michael Oliver (England)

PSG vs Bayern Munich team news

All eyes ahead of this one will be on Mbappe and Messi. The two PSG stars are both injured, but either or both could pass fit for this match. Messi appears to have the greater chance to do so, as PSG announced he will train ahead of the game. Mbappe was initially ruled out by PSG, but Bayern head coach Julian Nagelsmann seems convinced he will play. 

Marco Verratti will be an important name to keep an eye on as well, as he took a knock over the weekend and will be assessed. Renato Sanches is out, as is Nordi Mukiele. Centre-back Presnel Kimpembe returned off the bench against Monaco and he could make his full return in this game.

Bayern have a number of players struggling ahead of this match. A pair of attackers are in a fitness race, with Mane and Thomas Muller doubtful. It appears Muller is likely to play despite coming off at halftime over the weekend against VfL Bochum with a knock, but Mane still needs time following three months out with a leg injury. Goalkeeper Manuel Neuer is out for the season with a broken leg, seeing Yann Sommer take over in net. Noussair Mazraoui has been sidelined with heart inflammation after a bout with COVID-19 and has no timeline for a return, while Lucas Hernandez faces a long spell on the sidelines after his torn ACL at the World Cup.

MORE: Complete UEFA Champions League Round of 16 fixtures

PSG vs Bayern Munich key stats

• This game is a rematch of the 2020 Champions League final in which Bayern Munich emerged victorious 1-0 thanks to a 59th minute goal by Kingsley Coman. Eight of the 15 Bayern Munich players who appeared in that match are no longer with the club, while one other (Neuer) is absent for this match.
• These two teams have met on 11 previous occasions, and have never drawn. The visiting side has won just three of 10 matches, not including the 2017 final played at a neutral venue.
• 19-year-old Jamal Musiala became the youngest player to ever make 100 appearances for Bayern Munich in December.

PSG vs Bayern Munich prediction

• Moneyline lean: Bayern Munich (+145)
• Against the spread lean (handicap): Bayern Munich -0.5 (+135)
• Score prediction: PSG 0-2 Bayern Munich

There's just no way to possibly trust PSG at this point in time. Charged with carrying the attacking load over the weekend against a good AS Monaco side, Neymar fell flat, unable to provide any kind of spark. Messi and Mbappe may both be out for this match, or at least could play a limited role, so it's an uphill battle for the hosts.

It's hard to imagine anything other than a Bayern win here, and an early advantage in the two-legged matchup.

PSG vs Bayern Munich: Best bet

• Pick: Bayern Munich to win
• Odds: +145 (BetMGM)

No reason to overthink this one. At this point, there's no signs that PSG can overcome a German side that's just flat out better.

While Bayern may be missing some key pieces, they more than have the depth to make up for it, and they have found their form again after a tough January stretch. Serge Gnabry and Musiala have rediscovered their attacking form, and Joao Cancelo's addition from Man City has been a positive one. Sommer is an exceptional replacement for Neuer, while Alphonso Davies coming off the bench is a scary proposition.

Meanwhile, PSG are floundering. None of the attacking three have been able to carry the load up front while the other two are injured, and that was especially true for Neymar over the weekend against Monaco. Messi could return for this game, but given the reports on his injury, it'd be surprising if he was fully effective. The same goes for Mbappe, who seems much less likely to prove fit.

Still, PSG's struggles go beyond just those three. Kimpembe's absence has meant more minutes for Sergio Ramos, which hasn't exactly been a huge positive, while young El Chadaille Bitshiabu has really struggled in his fill-in time. Verratti has been unable to carry a patchwork midfield, and while teenager Warren Zaire-Emery has been bright, the likes of Vitinha and Carlos Soler have been ineffective.

Overall, there's just too much for PSG to overcome in this match, and getting Bayern Munich at plus odds is too good to pass up.

PSG vs Bayern Munich prop bet

• Pick: Jamal Musiala anytime goalscorer
• Odds: +290 (BetMGM)
   
• Pick: Serge Gnabry anytime goalscorer
• Odds: +220 (BetMGM)

Still just 19 years old, Musiala has risen to the status of wonderkid, slowly establishing himself as undroppable for both Bayern and the German national team. He was one of Germany's standout performers at the 2022 World Cup despite their early exit, and he's been exceptional for Bayern in his short time at the professional level.

Musiala struggled in his return to club play after the World Cup, but has found his form again just in time for this match. With Mane absent and Muller nursing a knock, there could be more opportunities for Musiala in front of goal at Parc des Princes, as he looks to move from chance creator to chance finisher.

Gnabry, meanwhile, ended a long goalscoring drought with a goal against VfL Bochum last time out, proving his worth after he was finally given an opportunity back in the starting lineup. This season, in 13 Bundesliga matches when playing at least 45 minutes, Gnabry has put up at least 0.30 xG in all but four of them.

Two separate bets on these two players to score for Bayern cashes a decent profit on just one of them finding the back of the net, and would be an enormous winner (over 5/1) if both come through.

PSG vs Bayern Munich live stream, TV channel

Here's where to watch the match in select regions around the world: