The Premier League relegation battle has come down to the final matchday of the season.
With Norwich City and Watford already down, there is only one more team to be relegated to the Championship. There are now just two teams — Leeds United, and Burnley — battling for avoid being that one remaining club.
Everton were firmly in the conversation, but a thrilling comeback win over Crystal Palace on May 19 mathematically secured the club's Premier League safety.
Relegation from the Premier League is a massive financial hit to a club, and can be devastating to a club's future in both the short-term and long-term. Players depart for better teams, the club must slash the wage bill, and fans must endure at least one season out of top flight football, and sometimes much longer.
Avoiding relegation is a mission that comes at any cost, but someone must occupy that slot. Who will face the drop this season after the curtain draws on the 2021-22 campaign?
MORE: Latest on race for Premier League promotion
Premier League standings
With the final week of the season now here, there are three teams battling against relegation. Everton and Burnley have two games remaining in the season, while Leeds United have just one.
After Burnley drew with Aston Villa in their penultimate match of the season, Leeds are projected to be the most likely to go down, but the Clarets are right behind them. Everton are now officially out of the woods with the win over Crystal Palace.
Watford and Norwich City have already been confirmed to suffer the drop, and will play in the Championship next season.
| Place | Team | PTS | GP | GD | Next Match | Relegation Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15. | Southampton | 40 | 37 | -21 | @ LEI, May 22 | — |
| 16. | Everton | 39 | 37 | -19 | @ ARS, May 22 | — |
| 17. | Burnley | 35 | 37 | -18 | vs. NEW, May 22 | 24% |
| 18.* | Leeds United | 35 | 37 | -38 | @ BRE, May 22 | 76% |
| 19.* | Watford-X | 23 | 37 | -42 | @ CHE, May 22 | 100% |
| 20.* | Norwich City-X | 22 | 37 | -56 | vs. TOT, May 22 | 100% |
MORE: Premier League title scenarios & permutations for final day
What Leeds United need to avoid relegation
Leeds United were in the worst position among the relegation candidates heading into the penultimate matches for Everton and Burnley on May 19, and after both clubs emerged with positive results, Leeds dumped into the relegation zone, unable to enter the final day in control of their own destiny. They now must have outside help on the final day of the season to stay up.
Despite being level with Burnley on points, Leeds have a putrid goal differential, meaning they will lose any tiebreaker if finishing level on points — unless, of course, the unthinkable happens and Leeds beat Brentford by 18 or more goals, which is obviously not realistic.
They also have a difficult remaining fixture against a Brentford side battling for a top-half finish and on the heels of six wins across its last seven league matches.
Leeds must now best Burnley's final day result to stay afloat, and it's highly possible that only a win against Brentford will do.
Leeds remaining fixtures
| Match | Date | Home/ Away | Opponent | Time (BST / ET) |
| 38 | Sun, May 22 | A | Brentford | 4:00 p.m. / 11:00 a.m. |
Leeds are safe IF...
- Leeds win vs. Brentford AND Burnley draw or loss vs. Newcastle
OR
- Leeds draw vs. Brentford AND Burnley loss vs. Newcastle.
Leeds are relegated IF...
- Burnley win vs. Newcastle
OR
- Leeds loss vs. Brentford
OR
- Leeds draw or loss vs. Brentford AND Burnley draw vs. Newcastle
What Burnley need to avoid relegation
After the gigantic draw against Aston Villa, Burnley are officially out of the relegation zone and in control of their own destiny heading into the final day. Still, there's plenty of danger, and a result against Newcastle may very well be required.
Having a goal differential advantage over Leeds helps, as the Clarets only need to match Leeds' result on the final matchday.
Burnley remaining fixtures
| Match | Date | Home/ Away | Opponent | Time (BST / ET) |
| 38 | Sun, May 22 | H | Newcastle | 4:00 p.m. / 11:00 a.m. |
Burnley are safe IF...
- Burnley win vs. Newcastle AND Leeds do not beat Brentford by 18+ goals
OR
- Burnley draw vs. Newcastle AND Leeds loss or draw vs. Brentford
OR
- Burnley loss vs. Newcastle AND Leeds loss vs. Brentford
Burnley are relegated IF...
- Burnley loss or draw vs. Newcastle AND Leeds win vs. Brentford
OR
- Burnley loss vs. Newcastle AND Leeds draw or win vs. Brentford
OR
- Burnley win vs. Newcastle AND Leeds win vs. Brentford by 18+ goals
Everton avoid relegation
Heading into the penultimate match of the season, a rescheduled fixture against Crystal Palace on May 19, Everton needed victory in either of their final two matches to confirm safety.
After falling behind 2-0 at halftime, and ending up on the wrong end of a brutal refereeing decision that should have seen Jordan Ayew sent off, it looked to be falling apart for Everton. With a loss or draw, Everton would have left it to the final day of the season.
Instead, the Toffees mounted a famous comeback that will be forever remembered in Everton lore. Michael Keane started it off before the hour mark with a wonderful outside-of-the-foot finish to give the club hope, and Richarlison bundled in a deflected effort to tie it in the 75th minute.
Then, the moment that will be remembered forever, Dominic Calvert-Lewin got on the end of Demarai Gray's free-kick and launched a bullet header into the back of the net, blowing the roof off Goodison Park. The fans immediately streamed onto the field, with players pleading for supporters to return to their seats as there was still time on the clock.
With one remaining fixture to go in the season, the Toffees will now be able to head to The Emirates knowing Premier League safety is already secure.
Everton remaining fixtures
| Match | Date | Home/ Away | Opponent | Time (BST / ET) |
| 38 | Sun, May 22 | A | Arsenal | 4:00 p.m. / 11:00 a.m. |
