Juan Carlos Osorio exhibits behavior that indicates he ascribes to a number of axioms, but he perhaps holds none more closely than variety being the spice of life. His rotation policies have irritated more than a few around the Mexico national team. And yet, it's still the Colombian who guides El Tri into games against the United States and Panama as Mexico opens the final round of World Cup qualification.
Projecting USA's roster to face Mexico
His decisions, while varied, are not whims. Osorio thinks — and sometimes overthinks — through each decision very carefully with one question in mind: Which player will help El Tri defeat the teams in front of them? This time the pressure is high, both because the opponent is the U.S. and because the results have not been spectacular lately. Get these matches against the U.S. and Panama wrong, and the next question Osorio will be asking himself is, "Where will my next paycheck come from?"
These will be well thought out, but there may be plenty of curveballs thrown in by the 55-year-old and his staff when they release the list later this week.
So, on with the projections. Who makes it? Who doesn't? We've projected the 23-man roster here:
GOALKEEPERS
Guillermo Ochoa (Granada), Jesus Corona (Cruz Azul), Alfredo Talavera (Toluca)
The rotations may be over between the posts, but I think Osorio will go back to the three goalkeepers he called in for the Copa America Centenario. Ochoa is struggling behind an abysmal back line in Spain, but the fact that he's getting minutes should be enough to win over Osorio. (Ochoca's fired club coach Paco Jemez praised the shot-stopper's physical and mental strength in an interview Tuesday). Talavera is playing well enough with Toluca to keep Moises Munoz at home with Club America.
Other goalkeepers who have been called in recently, like Chivas' Rodolfo Cota, Pumas' Alejandro "Pikolin" Palacios and Monterrey's Jonathan Orozco, have been depth options and are unlikely to be tabbed for the trips to Columbus, Ohio, and Panama City.
DEFENDERS
Hector Moreno (PSV), Miguel Layun (Porto), Carlos Salcedo (Fiorentina), Diego Reyes (Espanyol), Jorge Torres Nilo (Tigres), Jesus Duenas (Tigres), Hugo Ayala (Tigres), Rafa Marquez (Atlas)
Earlier this week, we talked about the strength of Mexico's middle currently seeing action in Europe. PSV center back Moreno might be the first name on Osorio's list after his recent performances, and Reyes' resurgence at Espanyol plus Carlo Salcedo winning playing time at Fiorentina will likely assure those up-and-coming calls to the squad.
Ayala and Marquez both failed to impress in their most recent outings for the national team but provide depth and, especially in Marquez's case, locker-room experience. That sort of veteran presence is something that may be overrated but will be necessary going into Columbus, which Osorio called a "test of character" for his Mexico side, citing issues more psychological than physical for Mexico's failure to win there in the past.
The questions are tougher to answer out wide, which isn't great for a manager who puts as much priority on wide play as Osorio does. Layun is a no-brainer, though which side he plays on could be less certain. Although Layun is typically a left back, Osorio has enjoyed moving him around to various spots on the field. Mexico finds itself thin at right back with Paul Aguilar injured, so Torres Nilo provides an option on the left side that would allow Layun to move to the right.
Nestor Araujo of Santos Laguna and Oswaldo Alanis of Chivas probably returned too late from their injuries to break into the top squad. Also, I'll hedge my bets and predict that I'm missing a player. Osorio has a flair for calling in off-the-map defenders — and the outside positions don't look particularly deep. Perhaps there's a recall for Jordan Silva or Luis Fuentes in the works.
MIDFIELDERS
Hector Herrera (Porto), Andres Guardado (PSV), Javier Aquino (Tigres), Marco Fabian (Eintracht Frankfurt), Giovani dos Santos (LA Galaxy), Jesus Molina (Santos Laguna)
Here in the midfield is the most evidence for players who have seized the opportunities given to them by Osorio. Dos Santos' controversial absences that saw him excluded from the Copa America — and every Mexico side before that — ended in the October international window. His play during those games was more than enough to have him welcomed back, though his exact task during these matches is still obfuscated. That's also the case for Molina and Fabian. The two were bright spots in a 2-1 friendly win against New Zealand in Nashville, Tennessee, last month.
Molina has played his way into the team, especially because there's sort of a dearth for true defensive midfielders. That's fine, really. Herrera, Guardado, Duenas, Reyes or Marquez all can step in when needed at the No. 6 spot, if the system requires it, but those players may do better when freed to do other things with Molina in the middle. Orbelin Pineda might've been another nice piece there, but his sparing playing time when in national team camps hints that Osorio might leave him with Chivas.
Fabian and Aquino, who looks like he could've been a European success had he played at his current level when he left Liga MX for Villarreal, give an attacking spark, while Guardado is yet to see anyone wrest the title of "Most Important Player for Mexico" away from him. How this group functions could decide these games, and ultimately Osorio's legacy. But he will feel comfortable with the range of talent he has in the middle of the field.
FORWARDS
Javier "Chicharito" Hernandez (Bayer Leverkusen), Raul Jimenez (Benfica), Hirving Lozano (Pachuca), Oribe Peralta (America), Jesus "Tecatito" Corona (Porto), Carlos Vela (Real Sociedad)
Chicharito and Tecatito are as close to locks as you can get. The Bayer Leverkusen forward continues to be the best attacking player in CONCACAF, and while Corona isn't an integral player for Porto, he's still scored in the UEFA Champions League and domestic play.
Raul Jimenez can play in the center or out wide and looks to be back to full fitness after missing the second September qualifier. Peralta provides some stability, while Lozano has played himself into regular status after solid showings for Pachuca and El Tri during 2016, even though the 21-year-old has disappointed fans at times.
A few publications reported that Carlos Vela would not be called to the team (or would not accept a call were it to come — the situation with the Real Sociedad forward is always a bit complicated). Those reports seem to have softened recently, and Osorio might like to have him as a depth option after he returned to scoring ways in late October.
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