Mexico World Cup scenarios: How Mexico can clinch a 2022 FIFA World Cup berth during March qualifiers

Kyle Bonn

Mexico World Cup scenarios: How Mexico can clinch a 2022 FIFA World Cup berth during March qualifiers image

Mexico has slogged through a disappointing World Cup qualifying campaign, proving more vulnerable than normal. Nevertheless, El Tri has nearly locked up a place in Qatar.

World Cup qualification is within reach for Mexico despite sitting third in the qualifying table with just one match remaining on Wednesday.

It would take a loss against El Salvador at the Estadio Azteca and a win by Costa Rica over the USA with both results combining to overturn Mexico's current lead in goal difference (+7 for Mexico vs. +3 for Costa Rica). That scenario is possible but highly unlikely.

The general aura around the Mexican national team continues to be one of worry and the narrow loss to Honduras is not going to change that. There's an overwhelming feeling that the team has slipped. Mexico no longer owns CONCACAF, with two losses and four draws through 12 matches of qualifying.

Still, securing a spot in the World Cup does not require domination; simply enough points (or just the right goal difference) to finish in the top three will do the trick. Here's how Mexico can achieve just that. 

MORE: Mexico held by the USA at the Estadio Azteca

CONCACAF World Cup qualifying table

The top three teams in CONCACAF qualify automatically to Qatar 2022, while fourth place earns a spot in a June intercontinental playoff against New Zealand, the winner of the Oceania region. Goal difference is the first tiebreaker.

Here's how the CONCACAF qualifying table looks with one game left on Wednesday night. Barring catastrophic results, the USA and Mexico are heading to Qatar 2022.

The USA, Mexico and Costa Rica are guaranteed to finish in the top four. The top three get automatic berths to Qatar and fourth place plays in June's intercontinental playoff.

The only way that Costa Rica can bounce the USA or Mexico from their top three spot is to: 

  • Beat the USA by six or more goals;
  • Beat the USA by as many goals as possible and hope that Mexico loses to El Salvador at the Estadio Azteca by enough goals so that Costa Rica wins the goal difference (GD) tiebreaker (currently +7 to +3 in favor of Mexico)
Team PTS GP W L D GF GA GD
1. Canada-X 28 13 8 1 4 23 6 +17
2. USA 25 13 7 2 4 21 8 +13
3. Mexico 25 13 7 2 4 15 8 +7
4. Costa Rica* 22 13 6 3 4 11 8 +3
5. Panama (E) 18 13 5 5 3 16 19 -3
6. El Salvador (E) 10 13 2 7 4 8 16 -8
7. Jamaica (E) 8 13 1 7 5 10 21 -11
8. Honduras (E) 4 13 0 9 4 6 24 -18

* = Fourth place qualifies for intercontinental playoff in June.
​X = clinched qualification, = clinched playoff spot, E = eliminated

Can Mexico clinch a World Cup spot vs. El Salvador?

YES. There are several ways that Mexico can clinch a direct berth to Qatar 2022 on Wednesday: 

  • Mexico win or tie vs. El Salvador
  • OR Costa Rica loss or tie vs. USA
  • OR Mexico loss vs. El Salvador + Costa Rica win so as goal difference (first tiebreaker) stays in Mexico's favor

Mexico is guaranteed a top-four finish either way. So even if the unlikely scenario materializes and Costa Rica knocks it out of third place, Mexico would be guaranteed to finish in fourth and at worst play in the June intercontinental playoff.

MORE: Which teams are in the 2022 World Cup draw?

CONCACAF qualifying schedule

Here's the remaining schedule for the final round of CONCACAF region World Cup qualifying matches:

Matchday 14 of 14

Date Match Time (ET) TV Channel Stream
Wed, March 30, 2022 Panama vs. Canada 9:05 p.m. Telemundo Dep, Paramount+
Wed, March 30, 2022 Jamaica vs. Honduras 9:05 p.m. Telemundo Dep, Paramount+
Wed, March 30, 2022 Mexico vs. El Salvador 9:05 p.m. Univision, TUDN fuboTV, Paramount+
Wed, March 30, 2022 Costa Rica vs. USA 9:05 p.m. CBSSN, Universo fuboTV, Paramount+

Kyle Bonn

Kyle Bonn Photo

Kyle Bonn, is a Syracuse University broadcast journalism graduate with over a decade of experience covering soccer globally. Kyle specializes in soccer tactics and betting, with a degree in data analytics. Kyle also does TV broadcasts for Wake Forest soccer, and has had previous stops with NBC Soccer and IMG College. When not covering the game, he has long enjoyed loyalty to the New York Giants, Yankees, and Fulham. Kyle enjoys playing racquetball and video games when not watching or covering sports.