The largest betting disparity of any recent Champions League final will take to the field in Istanbul as treble-hungry Manchester City take on Serie A side Inter Milan.
Man City are considered massive favourites to win the title, having already triumphed twice with a domestic double across the Premier League and FA Cup. Pep Guardiola will now search for the coveted treble, not done by an English club since Manchester United in 1999.
Inter, meanwhile, are hoping not only to spring one of the most famous upsets of all-time, but also to return themselves to the Champions League summit for the first time since 2010. Italian football overall has been perceived to be in general decline over the last decade or more, and victory here would see that narrative washed away.
With so many storylines at play, this year's European title hangs in the balance with a mouth-watering matchup that should prove to be thrilling no matter how it plays out.
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Man City vs Inter odds for Champions League final
Going back as far as the betting data at Oddsportal goes, which is 19 years, no Champions League final has featured a bigger pre-match betting favourite than Man City this year against Inter, who are just -210 to win outright in 90 minutes of action.
However, beware of the heavy differential. The pre-match betting favourite has fallen in each of the last two Champions League finals, including Man City in 2020/21 when they were beaten by Chelsea despite being -105 favourites coming into the match.
There has been significant late line movement away from Man City in the final 48 hours before kickoff, which may suggest the fans are losing faith in the treble hopefuls right before kickoff. While they opened around -255 to win in 90 minutes and -550 to lift the trophy, that has slid all the way down to -200 to win in regulation and -450 to lift the trophy, which is significant for a match of this caliber, which often sees very little late movement after the initial odds settle following early release.
| Man City win (90 mins) | Draw | Inter win (90 mins) | Both teams to score Y / N | Over / Under 2.5 goals | Man City to lift trophy | Inter to lift trophy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM (USA) | -200 | +333 | +525 | -110 / -130 | -130 / -105 | -450 | +280 |
| Sports Interaction (Canada) | -224 | +366 | +501 | -127 / -123 | -139 / +109 | — | — |
| SkyBet (UK) | 1/2 | 10/3 | 21/4 | 4/5, 10/11 | 8/11, 1/1 | 2/9 | 3/1 |
| Neds (Australia) | 1.50 | 4.00 | 6.60 | 1.87 / 1.85 | 1.77 / 1.98 | 1.22 | 4.20 |
Man City vs Inter match facts
- Date: Saturday, June 10
- Kickoff Time: 3 p.m. ET / 8 p.m. BST / 5 a.m. AEST (Sun, Jun. 11)
- Location: Ataturk Olympic Stadium (Istanbul, Turkey)
- Official: Szymon Marciniak (POL)
- Last meeting: None (First-ever meeting)
Man City vs Inter team news
Manchester City have an almost entirely clean bill of health entering the Champions League final, a rarity for the end of a busy campaign. Only a minor back problem for Kyle Walker is keeping the Man City physios busy, having missed training on Tuesday morning. His absence would admittedly be a big blow to City, as Walker's performance on the wing shutting down some of the world's best wide attackers has been crucial to City's dominance this season. Ederson should return to goal after Stefan Ortega was given the responsibilities in the FA Cup, including last weekend's final.
Inter boss Simone Inzaghi rested a number of players down the stretch in Serie A play, particularly with this match in mind. Federico Dimarco wasn't even in the squad to face Torino in the final match of the campaign, but he should return, left out simply to rest. The only true fitness concern for Inter is to Henrikh Mkhitaryan, who has been absent with a thigh injury much of the second half of the season, but his potential return could give Inzaghi a selection headache in midfield. Joaquin Correa is also struggling with a calf problem, but he has been nothing more than a bench option for Inter this season amidst a stretch of poor attacking form.
MORE: Why Inter Milan can beat Man City in Champions League final
Man City vs Inter key stats
- Manchester City could become the 23rd club (sixth from England) to win the Champions League, and the first new name on the trophy since Chelsea back in 2012.
- Inter are one goal away from becoming the 16th club to reach 200 goals in Champions League play.
- Lautaro Martinez has 28 goals this season across all competitions, but only one in the 14 Inter defeats this term.
- This is the first time since 2005 (Liverpool vs. AC Milan, also in Istanbul) that two teams are meeting for the first time in a Champions League final.
- Erling Haaland's 12 Champions League goals this season is joint-most ever for a player by an English club in a single season of the competition. One more in the final would see him pass Ruud van Nistelrooy's 2002/03 tally for Manchester United.
Man City vs Inter prediction
- Moneyline lean: Man City (-225)
- Score prediction: Man City 2-0 Inter
While it's hard to see this game getting out of hand the way Man City have blasted other European giants this season, it's also hard to see Inter managing to pull off an historic upset. City have just been too good this season when it matters most.
City did all their best work at home, so it's possible that if Inter frustrate the English side in front of goal long enough, they could maybe push the game to extra time or penalties, but keeping Man City off the scoresheet completely is an unlikely task, so they will need to get at least a goal.
City have been breached on occasion, including in draws against Bayern and Real Madrid away from home, plus against Man United in the FA Cup final, but overall, this Inter side will need to work extremely hard and take their chances in front of goal to make that happen. It will take a perfect performance from Inter to pull off the unthinkable, and backing an imperfect side from a betting perspective just doesn't make sense. Overall, the moneyline in this match provides little value to any selection.
Man City vs Inter best bet
- Pick: Correct score band: 2-1, 3-1, 4-1
- Odds: +185 (BetMGM)
- Pick: Correct score band: 1-0, 2-0, 3-0
- Odds: +320 (BetMGM)
Trendy selections have tabbed the Champions League final as a traditionally low-scoring affair, and rightly so. Each of the last four UCL finals have seen one team shut out, and the total go under. Yet it's impossible to trust either of those in this match. Man City drew 1-1 with Bayern Munich and Real Madrid in their away legs in both the quarterfinals and semifinals, but then blew those two out at home by a combined 7-0. It's tough to trust either outcome.
Hence, we hedge. One unit on each of these score bands (or a half unit on each, if you prefer) nets a profit if either result hits. Yes, this predicates that Man City emerge victorious after the 90 minutes, but it also blankets a number of possible results.
Unless Man City wreck Inter in a similar manner to the demolition of Real Madrid, which doesn't seem likely given the Italian side's defensive acumen, then as long as City win, this will come through, and it's much more palatable than any of the other odds that hinge on a specific type of result.
Man City vs Inter prop bet
- Pick: Under 2.5 goals
- Odds: +105 (BetMGM)
While it's always possible that Man City go on another blinder and top this themselves, it's hard to see this match being a barn burner. Inter are defensively stout, having conceded just three goals in their last six Champions League games, and all three came in the 3-3 draw with Benfica which they entered with a 2-0 aggregate lead. Their only defeats this Champions League season came against Bayern, losing both group stage games by a 2-0 score.
A 2-1 victory for either side is possible, but given the low-scoring nature of recent Champions League finals, this is a reasonable play in a match where palatable odds are hard to come by.
Man City vs Inter prop bet
- Pick: Kevin de Bruyne to score or assist a goal
- Odds: -130 (FanDuel)
Erling Haaland presents Man City's biggest goal scoring threat, and Rodri may be the most important player in Pep Guardiola's system, but nobody on the Premier League club dazzles quite like Kevin de Bruyne.
No, these odds aren't exceptional. If you want to make the sexy play, you can jump on De Bruyne anytime goal scorer at a juicy +280, but his real threat is by feeding his more ruthless teammates. The Belgian has an outlandish 31 assists on the season across all competitions, and he's been rested down the stretch by Pep Guardiola, only logging 159 minutes in Premier League action over the final seven league games.
De Bruyne, simply put, has been a big-game player this season. He assisted both Man City goals in the FA Cup final win over Man United, picked up two goals and an assist against Arsenal in what turned out to be the Premier League title decider, assisted three goals in the two league Manchester derbies this season, and has six goal contributions in his five Champions League knockout appearances this campaign.
Pep Guardiola deployed De Bruyne as a False 9 in the 2021 Champions League final against Chelsea, and he was ineffective. You can bet he won't make that mistake again, especially with De Bruyne likely to try and isolate Inter wing-back Federico Dimarco whose defending leaves a lot to be desired.
Man City vs Inter prop bet
- Pick: Marcelo Brozovic to be booked
- Odds: +160 (FanDuel)
- Pick: Nicolo Barella to be booked
- Odds: +180 (FanDuel)
For a referee that whistles for fouls as often as anyone, Inter could be under the gun here, and these two midfielders are the most likely to see a booking. Given that, these are delicious odds.
Inter conceded the second-most fouls of any Champions League team this season, behind only their cross-town rivals AC Milan, and even their per-match total puts them third amongst the eight quarterfinalists. Meanwhile, referee Szymon Marciniak's 25.29 fouls per match in Champions League play is the most amongst all referees with three or more matches called.
Interestingly, Lautaro Martinez and Hakan Calhanoglu lead Inter in fouling this season, but both seem adept at avoiding bookings, with just 10 yellow cards between them across all competitions. Instead, look to the two midfielders. Nicolo Barella is third on the team in fouls and has been booked eight times for his troubles, while Marcelo Brozovic is extremely inefficient, whistled only 28 times this year but booked on 10 of those occasions.
Man City vs Inter flier bet
- Pick: John Stones to score or assist a goal
- Odds: +600 (FanDuel)
Since moving into midfield, John Stones has been transformed from key player to dominant force at Man City. He has built into an influential player at the position, alongside Rodri in a double pivot. Against Manchester United in the FA Cup final, Stones would have won Man of the Match had Ilkay Gundogan not scored a brace, cropping up as a possessional king in the attacking half.
Stones has 36 touches in the opposition box this season across all competitions, which obviously doesn't give him a lot of chances to find the back of the net, but look closer, and his influence going forward is increasing. 20 of those touches, or 56 percent, have come since the start of March, in just 45 percent of his season's minutes.
The England international is also a much bigger influence going forward in Champions League play. He has registered 0.9 key passes per game in European competition, compared to just 0.3 key passes per game in the Premier League, which his shot totals remain about the same.
You can get Stones to score anytime at +1100, but adding the assist is critical since the volume on both individually is quite low. He could play a big role here.
Arise, Sir John Stones... pic.twitter.com/qEySjGsfQf
— Mark Carey (@MarkCarey93) June 3, 2023
Man City vs Inter live stream, TV channel
LIVE: Stream the UCL final live in the USA on Paramount+, with 1 month free trial using promo code FINAL
| TV channel | Streaming | |
|---|---|---|
| USA | CBS, TUDN, Univision | Fubo, Paramount+, ViX, Univision Now, TUDN app/website |
| UK | BT Sport Ultimate, BT Sport 1 | BT Sport site/app/YouTube channel |
| Australia | — | Stan Sport |
| Canada | — | DAZN |
| Hong Kong | beIN Sports 3 | beIN Sports Connect |
| India | Sony Ten 2 | JioTV, Sony LIV |
| Malaysia | beIN Sports 3 | beIN Sports Connect, sooka |
| New Zealand | — | Spark Sport |
| Singapore | beIN Sports 3 | beIN Sports Connect, StarHub TV+ |
