The Champions League semifinals produced one high-powered matchup in Man City vs. Real Madrid, but while the other has less star power, it makes up for that two-fold with intrigue.
Liverpool takes on Villarreal as one of the best teams in not just England but indeed Europe matches up against a giant-killing Spanish side.
Villarreal toppled in-form Italian giants Juventus in the Round of 16 before humbling high-flying Bayern Munich in the quarterfinals. Yellow Submarine boss Unai Emery has proven himself master of European play yet again, with two Europa League crowns to his name to go along with countless surprising results across his glittering managerial career.
Still, this test proves even more fearsome than the previous two, as Liverpool remains in the hunt for an unprecedented quadruple and is considered joint-favorites with Man City by bookmakers to emerge victorious at the end of the season.
MORE: Man City vs. Real Madrid betting preview for Champions League semifinal
Liverpool vs. Villarreal betting odds
Odds via DraftKings (USA), Sports Interaction (Canada), and SkyBet (UK)
Villarreal seems to collect zero respect for taking down Bayern Munich and Juventus in the competition so far, judged more for its seventh-placed La Liga standing than any upsets in European play. The Spanish side is a massive underdog, with gargantuan odds to win at Anfield in the first leg.
Liverpool will know that to be false advertising, as Villarreal achieved positive results in both Turin and Munich, with both a 3-0 away win at Juventus plus a 1-1 draw at Bayern seeing the opponents out of the competition.
The bookmakers also think Liverpool will score a boatload of goals, as the over/under is bumped over 3 while both teams not to score remains the favored choice. That's also misleading, as Villarreal held a high-flying Bayern side to just a single goal over 180 minutes, and did the same with Juventus a round earlier despite the Italian club's excellent league form at the time.
| USA (DraftKings) | Canada (Sports Interaction) | UK (SkyBet) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool Win | -350 | -426 | -400 |
| Draw | +475 | +452 | +500 |
| Villarreal Win | +1100 | +800 | +1000 |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | +145 / -170 | +132 / -185 | +138 / -188 |
| Both teams to score Y / N | +100 / -130 | -159 / +101 | +110 / -125 |
| Liverpool -1.5 | -115 | +112 | — |
| Villarreal +1.5 | +105 | -143 | — |
Picks odds via DraftKings
Liverpool vs. Villarreal prediction
As stated above, the odds have somewhat misplaced this match and have completely undervalued Villarreal. There's certainly a chance Liverpool runs away with the match, because Liverpool is Liverpool and can run away with any match. Still, Villarreal is a quality and well-coached opponent that should give the Reds a tough test.
It would be silly to bet against Liverpool at home in any game, so the moneyline remains in favor of the Reds despite the lack of value, but there's significant reason to back Villarreal against a 1.5 goal spread at plus odds.
Moneyline lean: Liverpool
Against the Spread lean: Villarreal
Scoreline prediction: Liverpool 2-1 Villarreal
MORE: Champions League semifinals time, TV, streaming, and results
Liverpool vs. Villarreal best bets & expert analysis
Liverpool vs. Villarreal best bet
While everyone expected Liverpool to find the back of the net, and for good reason, there's also absolutely no reason Villarreal can't score in this match.
The La Liga side may be seventh in the Spanish top flight, but Villarreal boasts the third-best expected goals (xG) total in the league, with the 61.88 xG mark less than three behind Barcelona and just six back of Real Madrid. A catastrophic -8.88 differential between actual and expected goals indicates while quality finishing has escaped them, Villarreal have also been terribly unlucky in front of net.
Villarreal has created almost three "big chances" per match in the Champions League, and while that understandably dipped slightly against top European sides like Bayern and Juventus, the Yellow Submarine attack still created four "big chances" across two legs against Juventus and three against Bayern. Liverpool, meanwhile, conceded a whopping five big chances across the two legs against Benfica, including two in the first leg when the starters were all in.
Arnaut Danjuma, the hero against Bayern Munich, is a very streaky player, but when he shows up, it's game over for the opponent. The chances will be there, Villarreal just has to finish them.
Pick: Both teams to score (+100 on DraftKings)
MORE: What teams are in the 2022-23 Champions League?
Liverpool vs. Villarreal prop: Trent Alexander-Arnold assist
We all know by now how much Jurgen Klopp utilizes his prized full-backs Trent Alexander-Arnold and Andy Robertson. Liverpool's tactics have essentially trademarked the bombing full-backs.
It's for good reason. Alexander-Arnold is second in the Premier League in assists with 12, and Robertson is right behind him with 10. The two are only behind Mohamed Salah for the Premier League lead.
And the fact that Salah is top of the list is a fluke. On the season, while Salah has delivered 9.67 expected assists (xA), Alexander-Arnold sits on 12.19 xA, leading the Premier League. Guess who's second? Salah. That means TAA is leading the Premier League by nearly 1/4 of the rest of the pack.
It's no change for Champions League play. Alexander-Arnold delivers 2.3 key passes per match, setting his teammates up for shots more than anyone left in the tournament save Real Madrid star Vinicius Jr.and Man City's Kevin de Bruyne. Back the bomber to find an assist, and he should come through.
Prop kicker: Trent Alexander-Arnold to assist a goal (+175 on DraftKings)
This pick previously was Gerard Moreno to score, but he is injured and will not play in the match
MORE: Jurgen Klopp vs. Unai Emery historical results and matchups
Liverpool vs. Villarreal value flier: Away result
While I don't think it's smart to get behind Villarreal strictly to pick up a famous win at Anfield against one of the best teams in Europe, and I do think ultimately Liverpool will win, I also think backing Unai Emery in European competition at such fabulous odds can have significant value.
While Emery's domestic luck against Liverpool while leading Arsenal was poor, the Villarreal manager has been here before in European play, and found a way through. The Spaniard saw Sevilla through to a 3-1 win in the 2015-16 Europa League final, keeping a lid on Philippe Coutinho and company to complete a massive second-half comeback and hoist the trophy in Switzerland.
Even if Moreno doesn't play due to injury this time around, the "Yellow Submarine" put two past Valencia over the weekend and should have enough firepower to keep this close.
There are a number of ways to juice this further to give a real high-value return. Selecting a draw with goals gives +550 odds, and that's a good choice, but I love another choice even more.
Value pick: Double Chance — Tie or Villarreal AND over 2.5 goals (+700)
