Leeds managed to secure Premier League safety by a hair last season, but through the 2022/23 campaign, they weren't quite so fortunate.
The Whites were doomed to the drop on the final day of the campaign, falling to Tottenham 4-1 in a match emblematic of their entire season. Even if they had won, it would have been fruitless as Everton's win over Bournemouth meant they stayed up no matter what.
The odds of their success on the final day made it clear that the chance of survival was slim, and that's how it came to pass.
The Sporting News brings you a closer look at how the situation fared heading into the final day of the season, which ultimately resulted in their relegation from the Premier League.
MORE: How long is Tyler Adams out? Latest injury timeline for USMNT captain and Leeds star
Leeds United Premier League relegation odds
At the start of the final day of the 2022/23 Premier League season, Leeds were the most likely team to be relegated, according to projections by FiveThirtyEight, who placed them with a 92 percent chance of going down.
Leeds needed to win on the final day of the season and have the other two relegation threatened teams drop points. That was a tall order, and it turned out to be too much. Nothing went their way, losing to Tottenham while the other two teams both won.
Premier League table: The Bottom 4 on the final day
Here is how the table looked on the final day of the season, prior to the start of matches.
| Pos | Team | Points | Matches Played | Goals Scored | Goal Difference | Final Match | Relegation Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17. | Everton | 33 | 37 | 33 | -24 | vs. BOU, May 28 | 24% |
| 18. | Leeds United | 31 | 37 | 47 | -27 | vs. TOT, May 28 | 92% |
| 19. | Leicester City | 30 | 36 | 49 | -18 | @ NEW, May 22 | 84% |
| 20. | Southampton - R | 24 | 37 | 32 | -37 | vs. LIV, May 28 | 100% |
Premier League final relegation odds 2022/23
Here were the relegation odds for the three teams heading into the final day of the season.
| USA (BetMGM) | UK (Sky Bet) | Australia (Neds) | |
| Leeds United | -2000 | 1/20 | 1.05 |
| Leicester City | -1000 | 1/10 | 1.10 |
| Everton | +300 | +333 | 4.33 |
Relegation probabilities
ESPN's FiveThirtyEight also projected the relegation probability for each club on a week-to-week basis, with Leeds on a steady downward slope until their drop was ultimately confirmed.
| May 21 | May 14 | May 6 | April 30 | April 27 | April 5 | |
| Everton | 24% | 31% | 63% | 66% | 75% | 37% |
| Nott'm Forest | — | 32% | 49% | 54% | 56% | 65% |
| Leeds | 92% | 67% | 60% | 57% | 40% | 10% |
| Leicester | 84% | 70% | 29% | 24% | 31% | 30% |
