COLUMBUS, Ohio — The final round of World Cup qualification is here. Mexico has had a year of matches under Juan Carlos Osorio. We've learned a lot about the Colombian manager.
There are a few clues about Mexico's lineup we can take away from what Osorio has said in the days leading up to the match — and things he's said in the past.
MORE: Goal's Q&A with Juan Carlos Osorio
Against Uruguay in the Copa America Centenario, Osorio said he went with three at the back to deal with lone striker but likely would've played a line of four had Luis Suarez been fit to join Edinson Cavani up top. Ahead of that same match, he said he was looking for a goalkeeper that could handle an aerial threat and difficult set pieces. He's said the same thing this week about a United States side that will have a height advantage in many places. For that reason, we've projected Alfredo Talavera in all three of our lineup options, though it wouldn't be a surprise to see Guillermo Ochoa with the gloves on Friday.
Let's take a look at three ways Osorio might have his team line up to face the United States in the opening match of the Hex:
STANDARD 4-3-3
Osorio's favored formation generally is a 4-3-3, and while he doesn't have a true right back, he does have Carlos Salcedo, who has played at that spot for Fiorentina. Putting him on the right — or moving left back Miguel Layun to the right and sliding a center back over is a distinct possibility.
This would allow Mexico to track Christian Pulisic, a player Osorio highlighted as one of the United States' most dangerous weapons. Hector Herrera, a player with strong abilities defensively as well as going forward, could help Salcedo deal with the winger as well while Layun overlapping Andres Guardado and Jesus "Tecatio" Corona would create plenty of attacking disruption on the left side — and free up Corona and Layun to switch the point of attack toward Giovani dos Santos (or potentially Marco Fabian or Carlos Vela) on the right or play shorter balls in toward Javier "Chicharito" Hernandez.
Though there will likely be some variations, this seems the most likely lineup heading into Friday. Of course, Osorio always has a surprise in his hand and did seem to set up the roster for a different formation. That brings us to...
THREE AT THE BACK
With so many center backs, it seemed like Osorio might go with three at the back for at least one of his two matches this international window (Mexico travels to play Panama after facing the U.S.). That could see something sort of like this, though it likely would have Corona pushing higher to trouble the U.S. on the weak right side of defense with Guardado and Herrera both shouldering some of the defensive work in the middle. Layun and Jesus Duenas both can profile as wingbacks, able to charge up and down the flanks and get crosses in toward Chicharito but also get back and defend when possession is lost.
This three-man line has been used before, though with both Jozy Altidore and Bobby Wood likely to start, Osorio may want more numbers back in defense, rather than relying on the experienced but potentially vulnerable Marquez in the middle.
MOVING MARQUEZ
We also could see Rafa Marquez in the midfield, something that Ricardo "Tuca" Ferretti tried in the CONCACAF Cup with varying success. Marquez definitely isn't as fast as he used to be, but he makes up a few steps with his knowledge of which angles to take. The other options don't have the most strength in the middle of midfield, something that could come in handy against Sacha Kljestan — as the Montreal Impact showed this weekend in knocking his Red Bulls out of the playoffs. With Guardado and Herrera around him, Marquez would have plenty of leeway with two players with strong tackling ability and quick recovery on either side of him — something that was sorely missed in the 7-0 defeat to Chile when Mexico was overrun with Guardado and Duenas the only players in front of a Moreno-Araujo center-back pairing.
This would see Duenas or Salcedo at right back and probably Araujo slot in next to Moreno, though this lineup certainly isn't thin on center backs. Salcedo, Hugo Ayala or Diego Reyes also are options — and Reyes could even go into the midfield with Marquez behind him at center back.
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