UEFA Champions League permutations, scenarios: How PSG, Tottenham can advance and qualify to quarterfinals 2023

Simon Borg

UEFA Champions League permutations, scenarios: How PSG, Tottenham can advance and qualify to quarterfinals 2023 image

One more week, and we'll be down to just eight teams in the 2022/23 UEFA Champions League as the Round of 16 second legs unfold. Chelsea and Benfica were the first clubs to clinch a spot in the quarter finals.

Three other teams — AC Milan, Inter Milan, and Bayern Munich — will take a narrow 1-0 aggregate lead into those decisive return matches, while RB Leipzig and Manchester City remain deadlocked at 1-1 after the first 90 minutes played in Germany.

Napoli is ahead by two goals already, and Real Madrid by three, both looking likely to join the elite eight of the competition barring an incredible collapse.

The Sporting News breaks down each tie and what each team needs to do to advance. Reminder: since last season, away goals no longer serve as a tiebreaker. If teams are level on goals after 180 minutes, they will head to extra time, and penalties if necessary, to determine a winner.

MORE: All the details of the Champions League quarterfinal draw

Tottenham Hotspur vs AC Milan

  • 1st Leg: AC Milan 1-0 Tottenham (Feb. 14)
  • 2nd Leg: Wednesday, March 8 (Tottenham Hotspur Stadium)

After conceding early in Italy, Tottenham arguably did well to head back home with only a narrow loss. Spurs will be banking on their ability to dial up the intensity in London with manager Antonio Conte back on the sidelines after a spell of rest following surgery. Meanwhile, AC Milan are dreaming of a return to the quarterfinal stage for the first time in over a decade (2011/12).

MORE: Tottenham vs. AC Milan prediction and best bets

How Tottenham can advance to quarterfinals

  • Win by two goals or more: Tottenham advance to quarterfinals
  • Win by one goal: Extra time (and, if necessary, penalties)
  • Draw or loss: Tottenham are eliminated

How AC Milan can advance to quarterfinals

  • Win or draw: AC Milan advance to quarterfinals
  • One-goal loss: Extra time (and, if necessary, penalties)
  • Two-goal loss or worse: AC Milan are eliminated


Bayern Munich vs PSG

  • 1st Leg: PSG 0-1 Bayern Munich (Feb. 14)
  • 2nd Leg: Wednesday, March 8 (Allianz Arena)

Bayern deserved to win in Paris, but they'll remember how the momentum completely shifted after Kylian Mbappe entered midway through the second half. This time, the 2022 World Cup top scorer will be in the lineup from the start, and even without the injured Neymar, he will singlehandedly test the German champions as PSG continue to dream of a first Champions League title.

MORE: Bayern Munich vs PSG prediction and best bets

How Bayern Munich can advance to quarterfinals

  • Win or draw: Bayern advance to quarterfinals
  • One-goal loss: Extra time (and, if necessary, penalties)
  • Two-goal loss or worse: Bayern are eliminated

How PSG can advance to quarterfinals

  • Win by two goals or more: PSG advance to quarterfinals
  • Win by one goal: Extra time (and, if necessary, penalties)
  • Draw or loss: PSG are eliminated


Chelsea vs Borussia Dortmund

Chelsea advance 2-1 on aggregate

  • 1st Leg: Borussia Dortmund 1-0 Chelsea (Feb. 15)
  • 2nd Leg: Chelsea 2-0 Borussia Dortmund (March 7)

A Karim Adeyemi goal on a full sprint had the German side ahead by the slimmest of margins after the first leg, but goals by Raheem Sterling and Kai Havertz helped overturn the result.

How Chelsea advanced to quarterfinals

  • Win by two goals or more: Chelsea advance to quarterfinals ✔️
  • Win by one goal: Extra time (and, if necessary, penalties) ❌
  • Draw or loss: Chelsea are eliminated ❌

How Borussia Dortmund were eliminated

  • Win or draw: Dortmund advance to quarter finals ❌
  • One-goal loss: Extra time (and, if necessary, penalties) ❌
  • Two-goal loss or worse: Dortmund are eliminated ✔️

Benfica vs Club Brugge

Benfica advance 7-1 on aggregate

  • 1st Leg: Club Brugge 0-2 Benfica (Feb. 15)
  • 2nd Leg: Benfica 5-1 Club Brugge (March 7)

Benfica were good value for their 2-0 win in Belgium, and they poured it on in Lisbon to the tune of 5-1 with a quality attacking display.

World Cup revelation Goncalo Ramos netted a brace, Rafa Silva was inspired on the opener, and David Neres showed he can finish as the Portuguese giants ran rampant.

How Benfica advanced to quarterfinals

  • Win, draw, or loss by one goal: Benfica advance to quarterfinals ✔️
  • Loss by two goals: Extra time (and, if necessary, penalties) ❌
  • Loss by three or more goals: Benfica are eliminated ❌

How Club Brugge were eliminated

  • Win by three or more goals: Club Brugge advance to quarterfinals ❌
  • Win by two goals: Extra time (and, if necessary, penalties) ❌
  • Loss, draw, or win by one goal: Club Brugge are eliminated ✔️

Simon Borg

Simon Borg Photo

Simon Borg is a senior editor at The Sporting News who has covered football/soccer for over a decade. A supporter of Italian club Parma Calcio from his years growing up in Europe, he was previously a long-time member of Major League Soccer's digital media team, as a multimedia content producer, on-air personality, and Editor-in-Chief. Based in New York City, Borg is multilingual and has covered the domestic and global scene for TSN since 2021.