Liverpool continues its final three-pronged assault, with a famous quadruple very much alive in the final two months of the season.
A massive Premier League encounter awaits on Sunday against Man City, but first a meeting with Benfica in Champions League quarterfinal play arrives.
While Man City will get to play its Champions League quarterfinal first leg at home and remain at home for the top-of-the-table Premier League showdown on Sunday, the Reds face a tricky trip to the Estadio da Luz against an enigmatic Benfica side. Benfica lost again in domestic league play to Sporting Braga, 3-2 over the weekend, and its slim Portuguese title hopes (15 points away) all but evaporated with that result.
That means Benfica, already out of the Taca de Portugal as well, knows its final chance for silverware this season comes in Europe. The hosts will throw everything they have at visiting Liverpool.
MORE: Liverpool attempting to make history with quadruple
Benfica vs. Liverpool betting odds
Odds via DraftKings (USA), Sports Interaction (Canada), & TAB (Australia)
Liverpool is a clear favorite in this match, and understandably so, but the oddsmakers don't count out the chance for a draw with the Reds on the road. The oddsmakers also see Benfica finding the back of the net, with both teams to score the notable favorite.
| DraftKings | Sports Interaction | |
|---|---|---|
| Benfica Win | +700 | +625 |
| Draw | +400 | +408 |
| Liverpool Win | -255 | -274 |
| O/U 2.5 goals | -165 / +130 | -164 / +128 |
| Both teams to score | -120 / -105 | -125 / -123 |
| Benfica +1.5 | -120 | -133 |
| Liverpool -1.5 | +105 | +104 |
Benfica vs. Liverpool prediction
Odds picks via DraftKings
Liverpool has not dropped points in league play since early during a difficult festive period, and the charge to close the gap with Man City has the Reds eyeing the prize on multiple fronts. Quite simply, this is one of the most in-form teams in all of Europe.
All eyes will be on the availability of Trent Alexander-Arnold, who wasn't supposed to be back from a hamstring injury for "weeks" but was on the bench over the weekend for the win over Watford, leading to much speculation about an early return. His presence will be key since he's the man who leads the Premier League — hilariously, from the right back position — in expected assists (xA) at 11.09. That's a whole 2.89 over the next man in Bruno Fernandes.
Mohamed Salah, who was so spectacular across the first half of the season, could be running out of gas, with heavy minutes for club and country producing a pair of league ducks against Arsenal and Watford that combined for just 0.35 expected goals (xG) and 0.05 xA over the two games. Sadio Mane is facing the same situation, producing 0.56 xG over his last three games to go along with an eye-popping 0.00 xA. Jurgen Klopp may look to rotate his attack before this weekend's big game.
And yet, the gulf between English clubs and Portuguese clubs has increased dramatically over the past decade. You have to go back to 2013 to find Benfica's last win over an English team, with two draws and three losses since a victory over Spurs in the Europa League. Man City clobbered Sporting Lisbon in the Round of 16, while this very Liverpool side put seven goals past Portuguese league leaders Porto across two group stage matches, including a 5-1 road win. Liverpool rolls here, and while any Benfica consolation goal could have been handy in past years, no longer is the case with away goals scrapped.
Moneyline pick: Liverpool
Scoreline prediction: Benfica 1-3 Liverpool
MORE: When does Liverpool play Man City?
Benfica vs. Liverpool best bets & expert picks
Benfica vs. Liverpool best bet
Liverpool is, flatly, one of the most scintillating teams in the entire world at the moment. This team can score in bunches.
The defense has also been flat out spectacular, giving up just one goal in eight Premier League matches since the start of February, and conceding over 1.0 xG (expected goals) in just two of them. Still, this team has conceded in the Champions League a little more often, giving up six goals across the six group stage games, plus another one in a 1-0 loss to Inter that saw Liverpool back into the quarterfinals.
Benfica will be pushing for a surprise result knowing without Champions League play, the season is, for all intents and purposes, over. It's a bit risky to take both teams to score, but going over 2.5 total goals and expecting both sides to help out the total in some way is reasonable.
Pick: Liverpool win & over 2.5 goals (-105)
Benfica vs. Liverpool props
With Mane and Salah seeming to struggle under the heavy weight of significant high-leverage minutes for both club and country, Luis Diaz is primed for a big performance. The Colombian is a high-volume shooter, and he was rested against Watford over the weekend after returning from international duty — where he bagged a goal and an assist against Bolivia. So he appears ready to take the field Tuesday on fresh legs.
Liverpool has many other big-name players who stay in the forefront of bettors' minds, and therefore the odds on Diaz are tasty. His odds of anytime scorer (+185) are healthy for a dangerous winger, but the first goalscorer odds are too good to pass up.
Pick: Luis Diaz first goalscorer (+500)
