Matildas supporters are in for a heart-stopping finish to group stage play at the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup after Australia lost to Nigeria 3-2 to throw Group B into chaos.
The tournament co-hosts could have booked a spot in the Round of 16 with a win over the African side after their opening 1-0 victory against the Republic of Ireland. But an injury-ravaged Matildas side, missing its superstar Sam Kerr, succumbed to the Super Falcons.
With the result, Australia now sit on the outside of qualification to the Round of 16 from Group B with Nigeria and Canada occupying the top two spots. Only the top two finishers from each group qualify for the knockouts.
The Matildas have qualified for the knockout rounds of the World Cup five times in a row — last failing to do so 20 years ago.
How can Australia secure qualification? The Sporting News looks at every scenario facing the Matildas ahead of their final contest against Canada on Monday, July 31.
MORE: Canada vs Australia Live Blog
Group B table
- July 31: Rep. of Ireland vs. Nigeria (8 p.m. AEST from Brisbane)
- July 31: Canada vs. Australia (8 p.m. AEST from Melbourne)
| Team | PTS | GP | W | L | D | GF | GA | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Nigeria | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 |
| 2. Canada | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 |
| 3. Australia | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| 4. Rep. of Ireland (E) | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -2 |
*E = Eliminated from the World Cup
How Australia can advance to Round of 16 at Women's World Cup
Australia are currently in third place in Group B, still stuck on three points after a win and a loss from their first two matches.
The Matildas (3 points) next play Canada (4 points), and since they trail both the Canadians and Nigerians by one point, only a victory guarantees passage to the next round.
A draw against Canada would have Matildas supporters scoreboard watching and hoping Nigeria lose to the Republic of Ireland, who are already eliminated and only have pride to play for.
The good news is that the Matildas still have their destiny in their own hands, but Canada are the defending Olympic champions and will not be an easy out.
Despite their current position, Australia are also still in the running to clinch the top spot in the group if they can beat Canada and put together a better goal differential than Nigeria.
How Australia can qualify for Round of 16
If Australia beats Canada, the Matildas are guaranteed to advance to the Round of 16:
- Australia would qualify as the group winner if Nigeria draw or lose to the Republic of Ireland;
- Australia would qualify as group runners-up if Nigeria also win against the Republic of Ireland.
If Australia draw with Canada, Matildas can advance:
- As Group B runners-up ONLY IF Nigeria loses to the Republic of Ireland AND Australia have a better goal differential than Nigeria (first tiebreaker).
- Second Tiebreaker: If Nigeria loses by one goal and Australia is level with them on "0" goal differential, then total goals scored will come into play as the next tiebreaker.
- Third Tiebreaker: If Nigeria and Australia are level on goals scored, they will move to the third tiebreaker which is head-to-head points. Since Nigeria beat Australia, the African side would advance on the third tiebreaker.
If Australia loses to Canada, the Matildas are eliminated from the 2023 FIFA World Cup, and would join co-hosts New Zealand as the only host nations to fail to progress from the group stages of the Women's World Cup.
Australia's equation is simple: Win, and they're in. But if they don't...
— Optus Sport (@OptusSport) July 31, 2023
If 🇳🇬 lose and 🇦🇺 draw, second place is decided on group goal difference between 🇳🇬 and 🇦🇺
🇳🇬 have a goal difference advantage of one, which would automatically be wiped out
If 🇳🇬 lose by one but score… pic.twitter.com/42yG4F2JBy
MORE: Group B fixtures, standings, results
How Australia can be eliminated from Women's World Cup
There are still scenarios in which Australia can become the second host nation to be eliminated from the group stages of a Women's World Cup.
A loss to Canada on the final day would mathematically eliminate Australia.
A draw against Canada on the final group day would also be enough to eliminate Australia, depending on what happens in the Nigeria vs Republic of Ireland match and the outcome tiebreakers that would come into effect.
