Arsenal and Manchester United meet in a critical Premier League match at the Emirates this weekend with both teams harboring hopes of European play next season.
The Gunners are in a fierce battle with bitter rivals Tottenham for the final Champions League position, with both clubs level on points with six matches remaining. It's absolutely neck-and-neck, with FiveThirtyEight's prediction model giving Tottenham a 50-percent chance of clinching the spot and Arsenal a 49-percent chance.
Man United, meanwhile, has fallen behind and hopes of a Champions League return are all but gone, but the club still has a good shot at playing in Europe next season. Sitting sixth in the table, a top-seven finish would see the Red Devils play in either the Europa League or Europa Conference League, meaning Erik ten Hag will have an international competition to savor in his first year in charge.
Both sides will therefore see this match as absolutely critical and will push for all three points in what should be an exciting and thrilling affair.
MORE: Erik ten Hag set to match up against old mentor Guardiola in Manchester derby
Arsenal vs. Man United betting odds
Odds via DraftKings (USA), Sports Interaction (Canada), and SkyBet (UK)
After downing Chelsea, the Gunners are the clear favorites at home in this matchup, but the oddsmakers do concede that it's a wide-open affair.
Cristiano Ronaldo is thought to be returning for the match, meaning Man United will have its star frontman back for the game. Ronaldo missed the match midweek following the tragic death of his newborn son.
Arsenal has been struck by injuries in key places, with both Thomas Partey and Kieran Tierney out for the rest of the campaign, and Takehiro Tomiyasu not thought to be ready for more than a substitute role.
| USA (DraftKings) | Canada (Sports Interaction) | UK (SkyBet) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal Win | +110 | +109 | +230 |
| Draw | +250 | +235 | +250 |
| Man United Win | +255 | +225 | +110 |
| Over / Under 2.5 goals | -115 / -105 | -124 / -107 | -125 / -110 |
| Both teams to score Y / N | -150 / +115 | -159 / +101 | -165 / +120 |
| Arsenal -0.5 | +110 | +106 | - |
| Man United +0.5 | -125 | -135 | - |
Picks odds via DraftKings
MORE: Will Arsenal finish top four in the Premier League?
Arsenal vs. Man United prediction
While it's easy to go with Arsenal, the team in better form and with a less toxic atmosphere, that's a bit foolhardy. While it wasn't quite to the shambolic level that Chelsea displayed, the Gunners still experienced significant defensive lapses against the Blues that shouldn't be ignored.
Man United has its defensive deficiencies, as well, conceding four goals on 2.26 expected goals (xG) to Liverpool last time out in a thorough beatdown. The cracks have been in place for United for quite a while, though, conceding two goals to Norwich City on 1.8 xG plus concessions of over 1.0 xG to the likes of Tottenham, Man City, Leeds, and Brighton just since mid-February.
The Gunners, in fabulous goal-scoring form thanks to the excellent play of Bukayo Saka and Martin Odegaard, may get to the OVER on their own, but Man United should find the back of the net, as well. This should be a thrilling game between two teams that are difficult to predict.
Moneyline lean: Arsenal (+110)
Against the Spread lean: Arsenal -0.5 (+110)
Scoreline prediction: Arsenal 3-1 Man United
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Arsenal vs. Man United best bets & expert analysis
Arsenal vs. Man United best bet
While the defensive problems are the most obvious deficiency for Man United, another issue for the Red Devils is the slip in form of Bruno Fernandes. Once a creative force for the Red Devils, his last assist came on Feb. 20; since, he has collected a combined 0.92 xA across six league matches.
The problem isn't a lack of touches — he's exceeded his season average touches in each of his past three games, including a whopping 105 in the win over Norwich. Still, Fernandes is of world-class quality, and it will be hard to keep him down for long. He was brilliant against Arsenal in the reverse fixture, scoring a goal alongside the two from Ronaldo.
Instead, the issue stems from passing his teammates into good shooting chances. Fernandes, who averages 2.7 key passes per game this Premier League campaign and has created 15 big chances on the season, has delivered just seven key passes in his past five matches, with no big chances created in that span.
On the flip side, Martin Odegaard has trended in the opposite direction, and Bukayo Saka is in stunning form. Since the win over Wolves on Feb. 24, the two have combined for a whopping 4.44 xA and returned just two assists across nine league matches. That should start paying dividends soon, and Arsenal might get to the OVER just on its own.
Pick: Over 2.5 total goals (-115)
Arsenal vs. Man United prop: Arsenal goals
For starters, see above. Martin Odegaard is pulling the strings, Bukayo Saka is the go-to man in the attack, and Man United has defensive issues. Need more?
Fine, here's more: Alexandre Lacazette has misfired of late, with just a single goal in his past 12 Premier League appearances. Expect that to turn — he's collected 3.33 xG over that span and has undershot his season-long xG by a pitiful 3.45. Conventional wisdom says that indicates he's not a great finisher, but as a player who has overshot his season-long xG in six of his previous seven seasons, his total should shift closer to the mean before the Premier League campaign concludes.
You want to really go for it? Arsenal OVER 2.5 total goals at +340 isn't a bad shot either, but let's tone it down slightly for the official choice, which is still well worth a play.
Prop kicker: Arsenal over 1.5 total goals (+100)
Arsenal vs. Man United flier: Ronaldo goal & card
Cristiano Ronaldo is, obviously, Man United's main goal-scoring threat. So, with that in mind, wouldn't you love Ronaldo to score and absorb a yellow card at +800?
After the emotional week that Ronaldo has had, he will come into this match on a mission, as he usually does against big clubs. Of Ronaldo's six yellow cards on the season, three came against Liverpool, Man City, and Chelsea. Ronaldo finding the back of the net — which would make for a wonderful story — plus playing with a little extra juice in an emotional game against a top-six Premier League side wouldn't at all be shocking.
Prop flier: Cristiano Ronaldo to score & get yellow card (+800)
