After the Giants equalized the 2014 World Series with a win in Game 4 Saturday night, many experts agreed with our analysis that the Fall Classic will be decided with a Game 7. Game 4 was predicted to be tight matchup, and it figures to be the same case the entire series.
However, based on AccuScore’s 10,000 simulations, the Giants are clear favorites in tonight’s game. Their starting pitcher, Madison Bumgarner, has been outstanding, and we don’t have any doubts why he won't continue to deliver top performances tonight.
The Giants are listed as -158 favorites at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, with the Royals, behind James Shields, getting back odds of +148 as the underdog. The total is 6.5 UNDER -125 at William Hill.
Bumgarner is forecasted to have a better game than Shields. Bumgarner has a 66 percent chance of having a Quality Start (QS), while Shields has a 56 percent chance of a QS.
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If Bumgarner has a quality start, the Giants have a 70 percent chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 6:2, and he has a 51 percent chance of having a 5:1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5:1 ratio, the Giants win 65 percent of simulations.
The Royals win 51 percent of Shields’ quality starts. He has a 38 percent chance of having a 5:1 K/BB ratio, and if he does his team wins 51 percent of simulations.
When both starters have a “standard start”, our predicted 60 percent probability for a Giants win doesn’t give any significant expected value compared to current line, since -158 odds imply a 61.2 percent probability of winning.
As both teams put their aces on the mound, our predicted total of runs is very low, so there is value on UNDER 6.5 runs.
Based on our simulations, Buster Posey projects to be the most productive batter for the Giants. He averages 1.74 hits+walks+RBI through our 10,000 sims, and has a 27 percent chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI. If he has a big game, the Giants have a 71 percent chance of winning.
The most productive batter for the Royals is Alex Gordon, who averages 1.49 hits+walks+RBI through the sims. He has a 20 percent chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI, and if he has a big game, the Royals have a 62 percent chance of winning.
If yesterday’s game was must win for the Giants, it is exactly the same tonight. Home field, their best starting pitcher and the series shifting to Kansas City are some of the qualitative reasons to back up our quantitative numbers from simulations.
See more analysis from AccuScore.