Is Game 7 waiting?
The Royals took a surprising victory in Game 3 Friday night at AT&T Park. Building upon the momentum from their Game 2 win, they pushed Tim Hudson out of the game after he gave up three earned runs in 5 2/3 innings. The excellent bullpen of Kansas City secured the win.
This result changed the balance of whole World Series. As Games 4 and potentially 6 project to be very tight, the chance of the Fall Classic going the distance to a deciding Game 7 mount. However, Kansas City is now in the driver’s seat.
The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook’s new World Series odds, updated after Game 3, have K.C. as the -220 favorite, with the Giants getting back odds of +190.
Based on AccuScore’s 10,000 projections, each team has a 50 percent chance of winning Saturday night's contest. The Royals are offered as the +117 underdog in Game 4, with Giants backers having to lay -127. Since the game is a coin-flip, the odds on K.C. look quite attractive.
Many betting trends from last 30 days, as well as the entire season, support this pick.
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Both starters have a good chance of having a quality start. Ryan Vogelsong has a 60 percent chance of a QS for the Giants, while Jason Vargas a 56 percent chance.
If Vogelsong has a quality start, the Giants have a 63 percent chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 3:4, and he has a 28 percent chance of having a 5:1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5:1 ratio, the Giants win 57 percent of sims.
If Vargas has a quality start, the Royals have a 58 percent chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 3:2, and he has a 28 percent chance of having a 5:1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5:1 ratio, the Royals win 54 percent of sims.
With these starting pitchers and the strong presence of the Kansas City bullpen, we also predict Game 4 to stay UNDER the 7-run total, which can be backed at even-money; OVER is the -120 favorite.
The most productive batter for the Giants, based on out forecasts, is Buster Posey, who averages 1.85 hits+walks+RBI through 10,000 simulations. He has a 27 percent chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI, and if he does have a big game, the Giants have a 64 percent chance of winning.
The most productive batter for the Royals is Lorenzo Cain, who averages 1.68 hits+walks+RBI through the sims. He has a 25 percent chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI, which leads to a 69 percent chance of winning.
Tonight’s game will decide the direction of World Series. If Kansas City wins, it has three chances to claim title. With good chances in Games 6 and 7 on their home field, that might be too much for Giants to overcome.
See more analysis from AccuScore.