Wisconsin at Michigan State
9 p.m. ET, ESPN
Line: Michigan State -9.5 Total: 135
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Trends: Wisconsin 16-9 SU, 13-12 ATS, 13-12 O/U. MSU 21-5 SU, 16-9 ATS, 12-13 O/U.
KenPom efficiency ratings: Wisconsin 36 (overall), 51 (offense), 40 (defense). MSU 3, 4, 29
Effective FG percentage: Wisconsin 49.0, MSU 55.7 EFG% against: Wisconsin 48.2, MSU 42.1
Pick: Wisconsin has been on a roll after losing three straight in early January. The Badgers have won and covered seven in a row, including three straight up as an underdog. Once on the NCAA Tournament fringe, Wisconsin seems to be locked into a middle seed now. This ATS run started with a 77-76 win over Michigan State as a 6.5-point home dog.
Michigan State is also on an impressive ATS run, covering six straight (5-1 straight up). Wisconsin has apparently improved about five points in oddsmakers' eyes, given that it was +6.5 against MSU last month and the change in venue results in a roughly eight point swing.
Nearly 90 percent of bettors are taking the OVER in this game, per Sports Insights, and we'll go the other way and play the UNDER.
MORE: College hoops live scoreboard | MSU-Wisconsin stats and trends