LAS VEGAS – With four big SEC games on tap in Week 6 of the college football season, sports books expected to see some line movement. But the biggest moves so far at The Wynn as of Friday afternoon have supported home teams against their higher-profile opponents in three of those games.
The Kentucky Wildcats, Mississippi State Bulldogs and Tennessee Volunteers have all seen bettors back them in early wagering action, while the Alabama Crimson Tide have moved higher as road favorites visiting the Ole Miss Rebels. The Bulldogs and Vols actually opened as home underdogs and are now favorites against the Texas A&M Aggies and Florida Gators, respectively.
Texas A&M opened as a 1.5-point road favorite against Mississippi State in a matchup of undefeated teams. The Bulldogs have since moved to 3-point favorites off a bye week, which followed a huge 34-29 victory at LSU as 7-point underdogs, snapping a 14-game series losing streak.
“I think Mississippi State might be as good as A&M, if not better, and that’s the reason for the move,” Johnny Avello, The Wynn’s executive director of race & sports, told The Linemakers on Sporting News on Friday. “When you make the lines, you kind of anticipate what you think will get bet. I thought A&M would get bet, although I did like State for the game. And I still like State for the game.
“Coming in (to the season), it did look like this was going to be the best Mississippi State team in quite some time. I can’t see them being anything but sky high for this game.”
Kentucky is still an underdog hosting the South Carolina Gamecocks, but the line has seen one of the biggest moves of the week. The Wildcats opened as 10-point home underdogs and were +3.5 at The Wynn as of Friday afternoon.
“It’s a big game for the program,” Avello said of Kentucky. “It shows they will have gone to the next level. They’re certainly a better team. If you look at history, they usually do play this team fairly tough.
“The problem with South Carolina is they really stop nobody. They can score if you want to get into one of those battles where it’s score for score. They can certainly play that game.”
Avello on Sunday opened Alabama as a 4-point road favorite at Ole Miss, and the Crimson Tide rose as high as -6.5 on Thursday before settling down to -5.5 on Friday. He said bettors should expect to see the best of ‘Bama and another low-scoring game in a series that has seen the UNDER cash in five of the past six meetings.
“I don’t question the Alabama team, how good they are, because the coach gets fine recruits,” Avello said. “When you get fine recruits like he does, it just takes time to put it together. They had a whole (extra) week to get ready for this game. They know Mississippi is a good football team this year. They are not taking this team lightly. My only question with Mississippi is, they haven’t really played anybody of great caliber. Defensively, they’re solid.
“If you look at these games when Mississippi plays Alabama, Mississippi hasn’t scored a lot of points in these games. This year, they’ve shown a little more offense. What I think you’ll see is a really tight game again, a tight defensive battle. I don’t think there will be a lot of chances on the Mississippi side, and Alabama gets to show how good their defense really is.”
Like Mississippi State, Tennessee is another SEC school that opened as a small home dog against Florida (+1) but is now favored (-3). As Brian Edwards noted earlier this week, the Gators have won the last nine meetings with the Vols, the last seven decided by double digits.
Mountaineers climb hosting Kansas
The West Virginia Mountaineers have seen the biggest line move in their favor this week, and Avello does not see that changing before Saturday’s kickoff in Morgantown against the Kansas Jayhawks. The Mountaineers opened as 20-point home favorites against the Jayhawks and were up to -27.5 on Friday afternoon with Kansas firing head coach Charlie Weis after a 23-0 loss to Texas last week.
“That game has continued to go up,” Avello said. “That game’s not coming back. Kansas fired their coach, they didn’t score a point last week. That’s a concern if you’re trying to bet that side. If you’re betting that side, you’re saying ‘ok, they’ll turn it around.’ It’s just hard to bet a team like this who really has no offense against a team who can put 45 points on the board.
“The team lost their coach, they’re probably not feeling that good about that. And they probably come into this game a little lethargic.”
Arizona upset not too costly
The Arizona Wildcats pulled off a shocker Friday night, upsetting the Oregon Ducks 31-24 in Eugene as 21.5-point underdogs. Arizona also stunned Oregon as a similar home underdog last year, but this year’s huge victory did not hurt The Wynn, which opened the Wildcats at +25.5 on Sunday.
“I didn’t have the money-line up, that spread’s too high,” Avello said. “I don’t put a money-line up when the spreads are like 22 or 23. There was (money on Arizona), and then there was also some Oregon money late. So the game balanced out fairly well.”
Other notable Week 6 college football line moves (Saturday games unless otherwise noted)
-- BYU from -14.5 up to -21 at home vs. Utah State on Friday
-- Akron from -20 up to -25 at home vs. Eastern Michigan
-- Georgia Southern from -14.5 to -19 at New Mexico State
-- San Diego State from -2.5 to +3 at Fresno State on Friday
-- Toledo from -12.5 down to -6 at Western Michigan
-- Bowling Green from -8 down to -3.5 at home vs. Buffalo
Sign up for The Linemakers’ free newsletter and follow us on Twitter .