LAS VEGAS -- UFC on Fox 17 comes to us Saturday from Orlando, Fla, with a solid card from top to bottom, headlined by a lightweight title fight between champion Rafael dos Anjos and second-ranked challenger Donald Cerrone. dos Anjos is a -210 favorite to retain his title, and Cerrone gets about +175 odds as the underdog.
dos Anjos (24-7) won the title back in March via a unanimous-decision win over Anthony Pettis and will be defending the title for the first time. He has won nine if his 10 fights and has an excellent overall MMA game, but many of his fights go to decisions.
At 31, dos Anjos is still very much in his prime. But this figures to be a tough spot for the champ, and it’s surprising to see the betting line so high. I made this fight a pick ‘em, so there seems to be value on the dog Cerrone here.
Since losing a unanimous decision to dos Anjos back in August 2013, “Cowboy” (28-6) has reeled off eight straight wins and has gotten better with each of them.
This fight will probably turn into a striking match, which favors Cerrone, who not only has power in both hands but some devastating leg kicks as well. dos Anjos will need to land some shots early to keep Cerrone off balance, or this could turn into a short night for the champ.
With this being a title fight scheduled for five rounds, cardio could come into play, another advantage for Cerrone, as he always has exceptional stamina and gets better as the fight moves along.
Pick: The lean here is to the underdog Cerrone, who has the edge in almost every facet of this fight. Take Donald Cerrone as the underdog to become the new lightweight champion Saturday night.
Match 12: Junior dos Santos vs. Alistair Overeem
Also on the main card is a key fight in the heavyweight division featuring second-ranked former champion Junior dos Santos and No. 9 Alistair Overeem. dos Santos is a -325 favorite, giving Overeem generous +265 odds on the takeback.
dos Santos, who won the title by knocking out Cain Velasquez in November 2011, has only lost twice since, both to the Velasquez. His last fight was a hard fought unanimous decision win over Stipe Miocic in December 2014. The back-and-forth battle was one of the best heavyweight bouts in recent years.
Overeem (39-14) is 3-3 over his last six fights, but has won his last two.
The key to betting this fight is the inflated line. Overeem has some of the best striking in all of MMA, but has suffered from a lack of conditioning in some of his losses, as he tends to gas out by the second round. dos Santos probably is the better fighter, but Overeem is the better bet here.
Pick: Take Alistair Overeem as the underdog and hope he gets off to a quick start and finishes dos Santos early as the nice priced underdog.
Match 11: Nate Diaz vs. Michael Johnson
Also on Saturday night’s card, Michael Johnson is 5-to-1 favorite over veteran Nate Diaz in a lightweight bout. Diaz, who has won only four of his last nine fights, has really slid down the ladder of respect from most MMA bettors. He gets 4-to-1 odds as the underdog in this spot.
The sixth-ranked Johnson (16-9) is a potential look-ahead situation, as Diaz – the 15th-ranked fighter in the stacked lightweight division – seems to be an easy opponent.
Not so fast.
Diaz (17-10) has faced top contenders in almost all of his bouts, including a unanimous decision loss to champion Rafael dos Anjos.
Pick: Diaz is worth a serious look here at this price. He is a prideful fighter and will bring everything he has to this fight. Take Nate Diaz at +400 odds to pull off a big upset.
Hugh Citron is the first oddsmaker to post lines on MMA fights in Las Vegas. He contributes to The Linemakers on Sporting News for key UFC events.
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