UFC 198 will take place Saturday in Curitiba, Brazil, with heavyweight champion Fabricio Werdum defending his title against Stipe Miocic in the main event. Werdum is a -150 favorite to retain his title, with Miocic getting +130 as the underdog.
Werdum, 38, has had quite a career but seems to have hit his best stride late. He has won six in a row coming into Saturday's fight and his confidence level has never been higher. The streak started in February 2012 with a decision win over the always tough Roy Nelson. Werdum won the interim heavyweight title in November 2014 with a second-round KO win over Mark Hunt. In June 2015 he unified the title, defeating former champion Cain Velasquez by third-round submission.
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Miocic (14-2) is right in the prime of his career at age 33 and should give a good account of himself Saturday night. His last fight, a 54-second KO win over Andrei Arlovski in January, signals his readiness for this fight and he, like Werdum, will be full of confidence for it.
One would think Werdum, fighting in his homeland, would look to press the action and try and make this a striking match. Miocic, whose striking has improved, would be better served turning this into more of a grappling match. If this fight stays at range, look for Werdum to get the better of Miocic. Werdum has quicker hands and devastating knee strikes which can come at any time. Should the fight end up on the ground, Werdum may have the edge there, too, as he is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and can submit opponents from top or bottom position. Miocic's best chance will be to keep this fight standing but in very close range. The old expression of fighting in a phone booth might fit well here for the challenger.
Pick: The lean in a tough call is toward the favorite Werdum to retain his title in front of the home crowd. Look for him to win the striking contest and defeat Miocic.
Also on the main card is a welterweight fight between two veterans. Demian Maia is a -300 favorite over Matt Brown, who is getting +250 as the underdog. Maia, 38, has won four in a row coming into Saturday, three of them in his homeland of Brazil, where he has been quite reliable in the past. In April 2010 he lost a shot at the middleweight title in a rather boring one-sided unanimous decision loss to Anderson Silva.
Brown has won eight of his last 10, and the two losses look pretty good right now as he lost unanimous decisions to Johny Hendricks and Robbie Lawler.
Pick: Even though Maia will have the home Octagon advantage, this seems like way too high of a price to give a tough fighter like Brown. Take him and the generous +250 price to pull off the upset.