We won our lone Big Play last week, with Kansas State, a 17.5-point underdog, playing Baylor close.
Our remaining picks split, going 1-1 on Other Plays and MP Leans.
If we had included Texas, which should have been a Big Play until it was vetoed by my partner Cade Massey – a Texas alum whose confidence in the Longhorns had waned – we would have had an additional win.
(As a result of Texas' win, we are now Peabody-Massey Analytics for the next week!)
Onto this week's picks ....
We have a very light list of plays and no Big Plays for the week (Wisconsin was looking like one at -10 on the road vs. Illinois, but that line has moved to -13.5). We do, however, have three Other Plays and five MP Leans.
Michigan, after its overtime loss at Penn State last week, dropped from 20th to 26th in the Massey-Peabody rankings, while Indiana has held steady around 57th, so the 8.5-point spread here looks pretty cheap. Michigan has struggled to move the ball this season but should be able to expose a week Hoosiers defense. Michigan State, after all, put up 473 yards and 42 points against Indiana.
Colorado State (84th in the Massey-Peabody’s rankings) and Wyoming (87th) are two evenly-matched teams despite what their records may suggest. The Cowboys have a win over Nebraska, which is nice, but the rest of their schedule has been pretty easy, including a win last week over an uninspiring New Mexico club. We’ll take the points with Colorado State, which played Alabama relatively tough, in this rivalry game.
Lousiana Tech, meanwhile, rates as just our 100th best team but still presents value as a 6.5-point dog against No. 81 North Texas, who has a recent loss to Tulane
Lines are from the South Point as of Thursday morning in Las Vegas. As usual, we don’t account for injuries or matchup factors. In cases of major injuries, we are just scratching plays entirely.
Big Plays (12-8 YTD)
Other Plays (10-22 YTD)
• Louisiana Tech +6.5 vs. North Texas
• Michigan -8.5 vs. Indiana
• Colorado State +7 at Wyoming
MP Leans (7-5 YTD)
• Wake Forest +6 vs. Maryland
• Buffalo -21 vs. Massachusetts
• Iowa State +32 vs. Baylor
• TCU +7.5 at Oklahoma State
• Eastern Michigan +17 vs. Ohio